The Closing Line

The last line before puck drop, and the best yardstick for a play.

Lines move through the day as news comes in: a lineup change, a goalie confirmed, a player ruled out. By the start, the line has taken in nearly everything known about the game. That last line is the close.

If your number was better than the close, you beat the close. An over at 2.5 that closes at 3.5 beat it. So does the same line at a better price.

Why it matters: wins and losses over a month are mostly luck. Beating the close is steadier. Players who beat it most of the time tend to come out ahead over a long run, and players who rarely do tend not to.

My Plays marks each play: ▲ beat the close, ▼ worse, = the same. The monthly report card grades you on it: A when your number beat the close on 60% or more of the plays where the line moved.

Where you'll see it: My Plays