How accurate are SOGs allowed by position?

If you’ve been betting on SOGs for a while, much of what’s to follow may be familiar, but if you’re relatively new to the world of hockey betting and digging a bit deeper into the numbers, this post is a must-read. Today, we’ll delve into the accuracy of Shots on Goal (SOGs) allowed by position and explore potential flaws in the data. It’s worth noting that much of what we discuss applies equally to the Goals/Shot Attempts against by Position charts.

Flaws with SOG Data

#1 – Player Positions Incorrectly Listed at NHL.com

Our main concern comes from the fact that on NHL.com and official team websites, players can be listed at any position, regardless of where they usually play. This becomes a problem because they don’t regularly update this information throughout the season. Let’s take Carter Verhaeghe from the Florida Panthers as an example. He’s officially labeled as a center, but he consistently plays on the left wing.

Screenshot from DailyFaceoff.com

As you can see in the graphic below, through the first 56 games of the 23-24 season, Verhaeghe has taken a total of 65 faceoffs, or 1.12 faceoffs per game played. That number suggest he has played only a handful of games at center or fills in for his center when/if they are tossed from the faceoff circle but is rarely playing center despite being listed as such. If we compare that to his teammate Kevin Stenlund (a bottom six center), who through the same number of games has taken 582 faceoffs, or 10.39 faceoffs per game played, we can see what a true center’s numbers should look like.

Screenshot from NHL.com

While this discrepancy is widespread across the league, it appears more prevalent among centers playing out of position.

#2 – Line Changes/Player Positions Changing
The NHL requires teams to list only one position for players, yet many players end up playing multiple positions due to various factors. This includes call-ups, injuries, line performance, suspensions, or the specific opponent they face on a given night. The dynamic nature of line changes, occurring daily and sometimes mid-game, isn’t adequately captured by most data sources.

#3 – Power Plays
Power Plays introduce another layer of complexity. It’s common for players to assume different positions during these situations. Forwards might play a different forward position, or they could even find themselves on the point/half wall. For example, consider Colorado’s PP1 unit, where players such as Jonathan Drouin (typically a LW) and Nathan MacKinnon (usually a C) assume positions different from their usual roles.

Screenshot from DailyFaceoff.com

How Can we Mitigate these Flaws When Researching/Betting

Use The Grouping Filter on the ‘Against By Position’ Charts
The grouping filter allows you to see stats broken down by C/LW/RW, C/W/D and F/D groups. Use with whichever you believe to be most helpful, but C/W/D seems to be the favorite.

Screenshot from Shots on Goal Against by Position

Use A Variety of Other Stats to Pair with ‘Against By Position’ Charts
The ‘Against By Position’ charts are just one tool in the toolbox. I suggest it’s one of many tools and weighted accordingly in your decision-making process. I like to combine it with the Offensive/Defensive Team Overview charts, which you can customize to home/away and recent or year to date numbers, and props.cash, moneypuck.com, naturalstattrick.com for the player level research.

 

Screenshot from props.cash

Long-Term Solutions?
While it’s disheartening to uncover flaws, let’s focus on improving the situation. One suggestion is cross-referencing current data with a site like DailyFaceoff.com, although practicality and permissions pose challenges. Another option involves manually correcting players who’ve played the majority of the season in a position other than listed on NHL.com. This won’t be perfect, but it’s a step toward increased accuracy.

I’ll maintain an ongoing list of players who’ve played over 75% of the season in an off position in a public Google Sheet (work in progress). Your input in the comments will be invaluable, and notice will be given before any official changes are made.


Thanks for Reading
I’m planning to do more blog posts, so if there is a particular topic or subject you’d like to see covered, please let me know. To keep up to date with website updates (along with other NHL/NHL betting related content), follow me on Twitter/X @shotpropz. If you have any thoughts about this topic that you’d like to share, please post them in the comments below or reply to the Twitter/X post.

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