ANA beat CAR 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.85 expected goals to 3.32. CAR outshot ANA 37 to 20. C. Gauthier led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). B. Burns had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. L. Dostal stopped 35 of 37.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| CAR | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 9:35ANAJ. Harkins0.22 xG
- 3rd 1:18ANAC. Gauthier0.03 xG
- 3rd 7:48CARA. SvechnikovPP0.25 xG
- 3rd 19:04CARS. Jarvis0.25 xG
- OT 1:52ANAC. Gauthier0.18 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
ANA 1.85 xGCAR 3.32 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Gauthier | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 12:29 | 1:29 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:43 | 1:46 |
| M. McTavish | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 13:20 | 1:26 |
| J. Harkins | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:06 | 0:00 |
| N. Nesterenko | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:05 | 0:00 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:47 | 1:29 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:26 | 1:45 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:10 | 1:45 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:12 | 1:18 |
| S. Colangelo | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:26 | 1:48 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:00 |
| B. Leason | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:46 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 23:03 | 1:57 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:53 | 0:10 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:20 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 2 | 20:28 | 0:00 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:39 | 0:48 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:32 | 0:29 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:49 | 3:02 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:09 | 3:02 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:02 | 2:54 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:58 | 3:07 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:24 | 0:09 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:06 | 0:00 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:56 | 0:00 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:56 | 0:00 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:41 | 0:06 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 9:08 | 0:04 |
| J. Jaaska | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:58 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:00 | 0:11 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:22 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:57 | 0:09 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 20:42 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 20:36 | 3:11 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:46 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 20 | 17 | 3 | .850 | 60:32 | OT loss |
| D. Tokarski | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ANA 2.3, CAR 3.9 | ANA 3, CAR 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | ANA 23.9, CAR 35.7 | ANA 20, CAR 37 |
| Win chance | CAR 74% | ANA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR S. Aho | 2.8 | 2 | 1.18 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.7 | 2 | 0.91 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.6 | 3 | 0.94 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 2.5 | 0 | 0.49 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.5 | 1 | 0.86 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.5 | 6 | 0.56 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 2.0 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 2.0 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.9 | 3 | 0.70 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.8 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.8 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.8 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.7 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 1.7 | 3 | 0.37 | 2 | 12% | 2 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.7 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 1.7 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.7 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 1.5 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| ANA R. Fabbri | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR J. Drury | 1.5 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA N. Nesterenko | 1.5 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.5 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| ANA J. Trouba | 1.4 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.4 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| ANA B. Leason | 1.3 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| ANA S. Colangelo | 1.3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CAR J. Jaaska | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| ANA B. Dumoulin | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| ANA J. Harkins | 0.8 | 2 | 0.14 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.