Game Recap: ANA 3, COL 4 (OT), October 18, 2024

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Game Recap

ANA3

Final/OTFri, Oct 18, 2024Every game that night

COL4

COL beat ANA 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 6.33 expected goals to 3.33. COL outshot ANA 49 to 19. M. Rantanen led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). N. MacKinnon had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 5.1. A. Georgiev stopped 16 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
ANA	2	0	1	0	3
COL	0	1	2	1	4

1st 6:05ANAL. Carlsson0.52 xG
1st 19:36ANAR. Strome0.14 xG
2nd 0:57COLC. Mittelstadt0.17 xG
3rd 0:35COLR. ColtonPP0.22 xG
3rd 11:42COLR. Colton0.20 xG
3rd 19:47ANAT. Terry0.08 xG
OT 4:19COLN. MacKinnon0.30 xG

Team Stats

ANACOL

19Shots on goal49

3.33Expected goals6.33

58Shot attempts98

145v5 shots on goal34

0/3Power play1/5

21Hits16

27Blocked shots19

8Penalty minutes6

10Giveaways15

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 3.33 xGCOL 6.33 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA19 on goal, 3 scored

COL48 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Carlsson	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	19:31	1:50
R. Strome	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	17:20	3:04
T. Terry	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	17:11	1:22
R. Fabbri	C	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	21:39	4:00
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	2	18:52	4:00
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:41	3:49
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	17:02	1:04
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	+2	0	15:47	0:23
B. McGinn	LW	0	0	0	1	5	4	-1	0	15:23	0:00
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:11	0:00
B. Leason	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:10	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	0	5	1	+1	2	7:28	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	1	1	2	2	4	+1	0	18:45	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	2	17:07	1:04
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-1	0	24:46	1:34
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	21:45	1:45
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	20:22	0:00
T. Luneau	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	16:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	49	45	4	.918	61:25	OT loss
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rantanen	RW	0	3	3	3	0	0	+2	0	23:27	6:52
N. MacKinnon	C	1	1	2	9	1	0	+1	2	23:48	6:07
R. Colton	C	2	0	2	5	1	0	+1	0	21:54	6:36
C. Mittelstadt	C	1	1	2	6	0	0	+1	0	21:43	6:32
N. Kovalenko	RW	0	1	1	3	2	0	-1	0	13:43	1:26
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	1	5	1	-1	0	16:19	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	0	16:14	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	2	14:53	0:00
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:18	1:08
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:33	0:00
I. Ivan	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	8:24	1:26
M. Stienburg	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	5:16	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	4	2	4	0	2	24:45	6:25
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	24:28	0:59
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	1	3	3	-2	0	19:33	0:00
C. de Haan	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	-1	0	18:47	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	18:01	1:35
J. Ludvig	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Georgiev	19	16	3	.842	64:19	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownTroy Terry ANA Plays in his hometown1 G, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.6, COL 4.1	ANA 3, COL 4
Total goals	6.7	7
Shots on goal	ANA 25.6, COL 35.6	ANA 19, COL 49
Win chance	COL 71%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	5.1	9	1.93	2	48%	1
COL M. Rantanen	3.6	3	1.56	3	46%	0
COL C. Makar	3.2	4	1.41	1	29%	0
COL R. Colton	2.3	5	0.71	2	27%	2
COL M. Wood	2.3	4	0.42	0	18%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	2.1	6	0.97	2	26%	1
ANA T. Zegras	2.0	3	0.66	0	21%	0
COL J. Manson	2.0	1	0.46	0	12%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.0	2	0.69	1	25%	1
ANA A. Killorn	1.9	0	0.60	0	23%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.8	3	0.51	1	19%	1
ANA M. McTavish	1.7	0	0.55	0	20%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.6	1	0.47	0	17%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.5	1	0.48	1	15%	1
ANA R. Fabbri	1.5	0	0.49	0	22%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.4	1	0.40	0	9%	0
COL S. Girard	1.4	0	0.49	0	8%	0
COL N. Kovalenko	1.4	3	0.26	1	14%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	3	0.29	0	13%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.3	1	0.49	0	8%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.3	1	0.32	1	6%	0
ANA T. Luneau	1.3	1	0.28	0	6%	0
ANA B. Leason	1.1	0	0.27	0	13%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.1	0	0.25	0	5%	0
ANA C. Fowler	1.1	0	0.47	0	7%	0
COL C. Haan	1.1	2	0.22	0	6%	0
ANA B. McGinn	1.0	1	0.22	0	11%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.9	0	0.21	0	9%	0
COL J. Ludvig	0.9	0	0.22	0	8%	0
ANA B. Dumoulin	0.9	2	0.25	1	4%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.7	1	0.13	0	6%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.6	0	0.12	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 32 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.