Game Recap: ANA 2, MTL 3 (SO), December 9, 2024

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Game Recap

ANA2

Final/SOMon, Dec 9, 2024Every game that night

MTL3

MTL beat ANA 3-2 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.46 expected goals to 4.20. ANA outshot MTL 29 to 21. T. Terry led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. Terry had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. S. Montembeault stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
ANA	1	1	0	0	2
MTL	1	1	0	1	3

1st 2:36MTLP. LainePP0.11 xG
1st 10:49ANAT. Terry0.13 xG
2nd 4:25ANAT. TerryPP0.58 xG
2nd 4:36MTLK. Dach0.16 xG

Team Stats

ANAMTL

29Shots on goal21

4.20Expected goals2.46

67Shot attempts47

195v5 shots on goal20

1/3Power play1/2

30Hits21

11Blocked shots17

9Penalty minutes11

12Giveaways15

6Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 4.20 xGMTL 2.46 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA29 on goal, 2 scored

MTL21 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Terry	RW	2	0	2	6	0	0	+1	0	24:51	4:11
F. Vatrano	RW	0	1	1	5	4	0	0	0	22:04	3:48
A. Killorn	LW	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	18:24	3:40
J. Harkins	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	2	9:24	0:00
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	19:38	4:07
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	17:17	0:00
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:48	0:46
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	14:58	1:05
B. Leason	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	14:51	1:10
B. McGinn	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	13:12	0:00
S. Colangelo	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	11:14	0:27
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	9:06	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	2	24:56	0:36
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	1	5	1	-1	0	22:35	0:14
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	20:28	3:54
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	19:53	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:35	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	15:34	0:47

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	21	19	2	.905	65:00	OT loss
J. Gibson	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Laine	LW	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	13:50	1:03
N. Suzuki	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	20:13	1:03
K. Dach	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	16:23	1:05
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	14:40	1:03
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	18:28	1:03
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:03	0:02
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	16:43	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	16:10	1:07
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	15:57	1:09
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:10	0:04
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	12:38	0:00
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	11:18	0:44
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	25:11	1:03
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	27:15	1:09
D. Savard	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	22:18	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	2	18:54	0:00
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	5	16:28	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:24	0:25

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	29	27	2	.931	65:00	Win
C. Primeau	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.9, MTL 3.2	ANA 2, MTL 3
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	ANA 27.9, MTL 29.4	ANA 29, MTL 21
Win chance	MTL 55%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
ANA F. Vatrano	3.4	5	0.70	1	32%	0
MTL C. Caufield	3.2	1	0.84	0	35%	0
MTL P. Laine	2.6	2	0.80	2	29%	1
ANA T. Terry	2.5	6	0.85	2	30%	2
MTL M. Matheson	2.3	2	0.79	0	15%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.1	2	0.93	1	29%	0
ANA A. Killorn	2.0	3	0.62	1	25%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.9	4	0.46	0	19%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.9	3	0.42	0	9%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	1.8	0	0.46	0	14%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.8	0	0.58	0	19%	0
ANA M. McTavish	1.8	1	0.59	0	22%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.7	0	0.41	0	18%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.7	0	0.61	1	19%	0
ANA B. Leason	1.6	3	0.42	0	18%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.6	1	0.32	0	6%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.6	1	0.46	1	15%	1
MTL J. Anderson	1.5	1	0.37	0	18%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	1.5	3	0.28	0	7%	0
ANA S. Colangelo	1.5	0	0.21	0	12%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.5	0	0.50	0	20%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.3	2	0.66	1	5%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.3	0	0.37	0	10%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.3	2	0.43	0	16%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.2	2	0.27	0	5%	0
MTL J. Barron	1.1	1	0.26	0	10%	0
MTL E. Heineman	1.1	0	0.33	0	17%	0
ANA B. Dumoulin	1.1	1	0.30	0	5%	0
ANA C. Fowler	1.1	2	0.47	1	7%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	0	0.47	0	14%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	1.1	0	0.30	0	15%	0
ANA B. McGinn	1.0	1	0.26	0	14%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.0	1	0.31	0	7%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.9	0	0.18	1	9%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.9	0	0.34	0	6%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.6	0	0.15	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.