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Game Recap
ANA3
FinalTue, Oct 29, 2024Every game that night
NYI1

ANA beat NYI 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.35 expected goals to 4.02. NYI outshot ANA 41 to 22. F. Vatrano led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Pelech had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. L. Dostal stopped 40 of 41.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
ANA1113
NYI0011
  1. 1st 14:05ANAL. CarlssonPP0.11 xG
  2. 2nd 14:07ANAT. TerryPP0.30 xG
  3. 3rd 5:31NYIM. BarzalPP0.12 xG
  4. 3rd 19:00ANAF. VatranoEN0.71 xG

Team Stats

ANANYI
22Shots on goal41
2.35Expected goals4.02
50Shot attempts88
175v5 shots on goal30
2/3Power play1/4
22Hits16
25Blocked shots14
8Penalty minutes6
14Giveaways12
8Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.35 xGNYI 4.02 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdANA goal, 14:05ANA goal, 14:07NYI goal, 5:31ANA goal, 19:00

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA22 on goal, 3 scored
NYI39 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
F. VatranoRW112430+1414:413:01
M. McTavishC0220000014:343:02
A. KillornLW011210+1017:521:42
T. TerryRW1011000017:113:02
L. CarlssonC1011100016:443:01
R. FabbriC0002220217:300:00
I. LundestromC0001420015:470:00
R. StromeC000001+1015:181:43
T. ZegrasC0001020014:131:42
B. McGinnLW0001120012:040:00
C. GauthierLW0004000011:121:43
R. JohnstonLW000041009:570:00
O. ZellwegerD0110030020:383:12
C. FowlerD000011+1024:060:00
P. MintyukovD0001030019:140:00
R. GudasD000224+1018:450:00
B. DumoulinD0000220217:300:00
J. LaCombeD0002120015:211:32
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Dostal41401.97660:00Win
J. Reimer000–0:00

NYI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. BarzalC101521-1021:024:19
B. HorvatC011220-1019:034:34
B. NelsonC000500-1019:284:32
K. PalmieriC000101-1018:494:22
S. HolmstromRW0000000016:561:12
M. TsyplakovRW0001100214:391:42
J. PageauC0004600014:301:24
C. CizikasC0001200014:040:00
A. LeeLW000600-1013:421:53
K. MacLeanC0002020012:410:04
P. EngvallLW0001000410:160:02
H. FaschingRW000000007:560:00
N. DobsonD011401-1024:384:26
A. PelechD0005010022:190:00
R. PulockD0002220021:280:04
M. ReillyD0002010021:261:36
S. MayfieldD0000130016:130:00
D. CholowskiD000002007:010:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
I. Sorokin21192.90559:05Loss
S. Varlamov000–0:00

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreANA 2.5, NYI 3.6ANA 3, NYI 1
Total goals6.14
Shots on goalANA 26.5, NYI 33.8ANA 22, NYI 41
Win chanceNYI 66%ANA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NYI B. Horvat3.220.90136%0
NYI K. Palmieri3.010.82031%0
NYI B. Nelson3.051.01038%0
NYI M. Barzal3.051.09127%1
ANA F. Vatrano2.840.55225%1
NYI A. Lee2.760.60027%0
NYI N. Dobson2.640.88115%0
ANA T. Terry2.210.70126%1
ANA T. Zegras2.110.61021%0
ANA C. Gauthier2.040.41013%0
ANA L. Carlsson1.910.49119%1
NYI P. Engvall1.910.49019%0
NYI M. Reilly1.920.3207%0
ANA A. Killorn1.820.52121%0
ANA M. McTavish1.800.53220%0
ANA O. Zellweger1.700.3217%0
NYI M. Tsyplakov1.710.64019%0
ANA R. Strome1.600.47016%0
NYI R. Pulock1.620.4309%0
ANA R. Fabbri1.620.48022%0
NYI J. Pageau1.540.54018%0
NYI A. Pelech1.550.4006%0
ANA P. Mintyukov1.310.4007%0
NYI H. Fasching1.200.39015%0
ANA C. Fowler1.200.4207%0
NYI C. Cizikas1.210.32012%0
NYI S. Holmstrom1.100.41020%0
ANA R. Gudas1.120.2104%0
NYI D. Cholowski1.000.3107%0
ANA B. McGinn1.010.21011%0
ANA B. Dumoulin1.000.2304%0
NYI S. Mayfield1.000.2205%0
NYI K. MacLean0.920.28013%0
ANA I. Lundestrom0.910.25012%0
ANA J. LaCombe0.820.2403%0
ANA R. Johnston0.600.1105%0

Shots on goal: 14 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.