Game Recap: ANA 1, NYR 2, October 26, 2024

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Game Recap

ANA1

FinalSat, Oct 26, 2024Every game that night

NYR2

NYR beat ANA 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.93 expected goals to 2.06. O. Zellweger had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Quick stopped 32 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	0	0	1	1
NYR	0	0	2	2

3rd 4:13NYRR. Lindgren0.21 xG
3rd 11:53NYRW. Cuylle0.12 xG
3rd 12:38ANAO. Zellweger0.16 xG

Team Stats

ANANYR

33Shots on goal32

2.06Expected goals3.93

62Shot attempts72

255v5 shots on goal27

0/1Power play0/1

19Hits26

18Blocked shots15

4Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways10

8Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

ANA 2.06 xGNYR 3.93 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

ANA33 on goal, 1 scored

NYR32 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Terry	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	20:54	2:00
L. Carlsson	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	16:24	2:00
T. Zegras	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	18:05	0:00
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	4	17:16	2:00
A. Killorn	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	16:40	0:00
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	3	3	2	0	0	16:06	0:00
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:53	0:00
R. Fabbri	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	14:58	0:00
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:49	2:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	12:30	0:00
B. McGinn	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9:15	0:00
B. Leason	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:44	0:00
O. Zellweger	D	1	0	1	6	0	1	-1	0	21:02	0:55
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	19:35	0:00
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	19:23	1:05
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	18:56	0:00
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	0	5	3	0	0	18:52	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	18:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Dostal	32	30	2	.938	57:57	Loss
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	0	1	1	6	0	1	+1	0	22:49	1:21
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	20:07	0:39
F. Chytil	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	16:31	0:39
W. Cuylle	LW	1	0	1	2	4	1	+1	0	14:40	0:00
K. Kakko	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:01	0:39
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	23:04	1:21
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:29	0:39
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	2	5	2	-1	0	15:16	1:21
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	15:07	1:21
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	8:01	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	7:31	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6:22	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	1	0	1	2	2	1	+1	0	19:47	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	0	25:24	1:21
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	2	23:44	0:39
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	19:09	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	15:20	0:00
Z. Jones	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Quick	33	32	1	.970	60:00	Win
I. Shesterkin	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	ANA 2.4, NYR 3.9	ANA 1, NYR 2
Total goals	6.3	3
Shots on goal	ANA 26.5, NYR 33.7	ANA 33, NYR 32
Win chance	NYR 72%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR A. Panarin	3.5	6	1.53	1	39%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.9	1	1.10	0	31%	0
NYR C. Kreider	2.9	2	0.93	0	41%	0
ANA F. Vatrano	2.8	3	0.51	0	24%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.8	1	0.83	1	30%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.7	3	1.06	0	32%	0
NYR F. Chytil	2.2	4	0.57	1	21%	0
ANA T. Zegras	2.1	3	0.55	0	19%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.0	3	0.59	1	23%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	2.0	0	0.37	0	13%	0
NYR R. Smith	2.0	0	0.66	0	22%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	2.0	2	0.45	1	18%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.9	3	0.50	0	21%	0
NYR J. Trouba	1.9	0	0.39	0	8%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.9	3	1.02	0	16%	0
ANA M. McTavish	1.8	3	0.49	0	19%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.7	2	0.38	1	16%	1
ANA R. Strome	1.7	1	0.43	0	15%	0
NYR K. Kakko	1.6	1	0.45	1	19%	0
ANA R. Fabbri	1.6	1	0.44	0	21%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.5	1	0.31	0	8%	0
NYR K. Miller	1.4	2	0.45	0	11%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.4	2	0.27	0	10%	0
NYR Z. Jones	1.3	1	0.29	0	6%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.3	6	0.26	1	5%	1
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.2	2	0.37	0	6%	0
ANA B. Leason	1.1	1	0.22	0	11%	0
ANA C. Fowler	1.1	2	0.38	0	6%	0
ANA B. McGinn	1.1	0	0.19	0	10%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.0	0	0.19	0	4%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.0	1	0.22	0	11%	0
ANA B. Dumoulin	0.9	1	0.20	0	3%	0
NYR R. Lindgren	0.9	2	0.26	1	5%	1
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.9	1	0.24	0	11%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	0.7	1	0.22	0	3%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.7	0	0.22	0	11%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.