BUF beat BOS 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.04 expected goals to 2.17. BUF outshot BOS 37 to 20. T. Thompson scored three for BUF. E. Lindholm had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. U. Luukkonen stopped 17 of 20.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 2.17 xGBUF 4.04 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:04 | 0:50 |
| M. Geekie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:35 | 0:50 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:57 | 0:50 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:27 | 0:50 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:50 | 0:00 |
| V. Lettieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:00 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:22 | 0:00 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:00 |
| F. Lysell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 11:48 | 0:00 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 10:05 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 20:47 | 0:50 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 20:03 | 0:00 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 20:38 | 0:00 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 19:39 | 0:00 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:04 | 0:00 |
| M. Callahan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 17:30 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Korpisalo | 36 | 31 | 5 | .861 | 57:42 | Loss |
| J. Swayman | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Thompson | C | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:28 | 2:48 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:42 | 2:49 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 12:57 | 0:00 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:08 | 1:09 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:56 | 0:00 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:34 | 2:52 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:03 | 2:53 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:32 | 1:08 |
| N. Ostlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:40 | 1:02 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 | 1:13 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:10 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 22:31 | 3:13 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:51 | 0:06 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 20:21 | 0:47 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:53 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 20 | 17 | 3 | .850 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 3.0, BUF 3.3 | BOS 3, BUF 6 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 25.3, BUF 29.4 | BOS 20, BUF 37 |
| Win chance | BUF 55% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.6 | 2 | 1.20 | 3 | 42% | 0 |
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.3 | 6 | 0.96 | 3 | 39% | 3 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.6 | 2 | 0.78 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.4 | 4 | 0.76 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.4 | 2 | 0.80 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 2.2 | 3 | 0.42 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.0 | 4 | 0.62 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.9 | 4 | 0.72 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.8 | 5 | 0.59 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.7 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS V. Lettieri | 1.7 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.6 | 4 | 0.42 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS F. Lysell | 1.5 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.5 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.5 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.4 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.2 | 0 | 0.43 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS H. Jokiharju | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.1 | 2 | 0.35 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.1 | 2 | 0.45 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS J. Lauko | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 0.8 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.7 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bernard-Docker | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS M. Callahan | 0.6 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.