Game Recap: BOS 1, BUF 4, December 27, 2025

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Game Recap

BOS1

FinalSat, Dec 27, 2025Every game that night

BUF4

BUF beat BOS 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.57 expected goals to 1.83. BUF outshot BOS 34 to 23. M. Samuelsson led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Kesselring had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. U. Luukkonen stopped 22 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BOS	1	0	0	1
BUF	0	3	1	4

1st 11:56BOSD. Pastrnak0.05 xG
2nd 1:39BUFR. McLeod0.08 xG
2nd 3:12BUFP. Krebs0.18 xG
2nd 7:54BUFM. Samuelsson0.04 xG
3rd 19:46BUFJ. NorrisEN0.88 xG

Team Stats

BOSBUF

23Shots on goal34

1.83Expected goals3.57

56Shot attempts57

155v5 shots on goal31

0/1Power play0/3

27Hits18

12Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes2

15Giveaways17

4Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 1.83 xGBUF 3.57 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS22 on goal, 1 scored

BUF33 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	20:33	2:00
M. Geekie	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	20:28	2:00
P. Zacha	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	19:32	1:54
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	18:27	0:42
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	16:42	0:00
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	4	15:50	1:18
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	12:50	0:00
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	12:45	0:00
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	12:36	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	-2	2	11:59	0:00
A. Steeves	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	10:02	0:00
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	8:58	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	0	0	1	2	5	-2	0	24:22	1:57
H. Lindholm	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	0	23:15	0:06
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	20:02	0:00
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	19:43	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:25	0:03
V. Kolyachonok	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Korpisalo	33	30	3	.909	56:55	Loss
J. Swayman	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Thompson	C	0	2	2	4	0	2	+2	0	17:55	2:38
P. Krebs	C	1	1	2	1	4	0	+2	0	16:28	0:00
J. Quinn	RW	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	0	15:13	3:22
R. McLeod	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:24	3:17
J. Norris	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	16:21	2:43
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	18:31	3:16
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	16:01	3:16
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	15:36	2:45
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	14:28	2:43
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	13:10	0:00
J. Dunne	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	12:06	0:00
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:49	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	1	2	3	2	6	2	+3	0	24:56	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+2	0	27:52	2:43
O. Power	D	0	0	0	5	0	0	+1	0	25:29	3:17
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	5	0	2	0	2	15:46	0:00
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:14	0:00
Z. Metsa	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	23	22	1	.957	60:00	Win
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak16:36M. Geekie16:28E. Lindholm14:11

Line 2C. Mittelstadt14:43V. Arvidsson13:27P. Zacha14:11

Line 3M. Khusnutdinov10:29A. Steeves8:56S. Kuraly9:23

Line 4M. Kastelic8:56M. Eyssimont8:58F. Minten10:18

Pair 1H. Lindholm19:11A. Peeke17:06

Pair 2C. McAvoy17:14N. Zadorov16:38

Pair 3M. Lohrei14:14V. Kolyachonok13:36

BUF

Line 1T. Thompson13:56P. Krebs14:37J. Doan12:51

Line 2J. Norris11:59N. Ostlund12:45A. Tuch13:08

Line 3B. Malenstyn11:51J. Dunne12:06J. Greenway10:40

Line 4R. McLeod11:00J. Quinn11:25Z. Benson10:31

Pair 1M. Samuelsson21:26B. Byram22:22

Pair 2O. Power19:25M. Kesselring15:46

Pair 3J. Bryson9:06Z. Metsa9:41

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCasey Mittelstadt BOS Faces BUF, his team until Mar 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 3.0, BUF 3.2	BOS 1, BUF 4
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	BOS 26.5, BUF 29.5	BOS 23, BUF 34
Win chance	BUF 53%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.5	1	1.19	1	40%	1
BUF T. Thompson	3.4	4	1.02	2	41%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.6	2	0.86	0	30%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.5	2	0.68	0	23%	0
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.3	1	0.55	0	21%	0
BOS M. Geekie	2.2	1	0.80	1	31%	0
BOS M. Eyssimont	2.0	1	0.30	0	13%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.8	2	0.64	0	22%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.8	2	0.69	1	30%	1
BUF Z. Benson	1.8	0	0.55	0	16%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.7	1	0.61	0	11%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.6	2	0.54	2	18%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.6	3	0.41	0	8%	0
BUF O. Power	1.6	5	0.43	0	7%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.5	3	0.61	0	19%	0
BUF M. Kesselring	1.4	5	0.25	0	5%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.4	2	0.31	0	14%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.4	2	0.63	1	20%	1
BOS S. Kuraly	1.4	3	0.27	0	12%	0
BOS A. Steeves	1.4	1	0.41	0	20%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.3	2	0.34	3	6%	1
BUF B. Byram	1.3	1	0.50	1	12%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.3	0	0.34	0	15%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.3	0	0.33	0	8%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.3	1	0.36	2	11%	1
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.2	0	0.53	0	18%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.2	0	0.24	0	5%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.2	3	0.34	0	17%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	1.1	0	0.19	0	8%	0
BUF J. Greenway	1.1	1	0.25	0	10%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	0.9	1	0.33	0	5%	0
BUF J. Dunne	0.9	2	0.19	0	8%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.8	2	0.26	0	11%	0
BOS V. Kolyachonok	0.7	1	0.20	0	5%	0
BUF Z. Metsa	0.5	0	0.09	0	2%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.3	0	0.11	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.