Game Recap: BOS 4, BUF 3 (OT), March 25, 2026

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Game Recap

BOS4

Final/OTWed, Mar 25, 2026Every game that night

BUF3

BOS beat BUF 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.59 expected goals to 2.71. D. Pastrnak led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. Peeke had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. J. Korpisalo stopped 22 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
BOS	1	1	1	1	4
BUF	1	0	2	0	3

1st 11:07BOSD. Pastrnak0.06 xG
1st 15:18BUFJ. ZuckerPP0.16 xG
2nd 9:45BOSV. Arvidsson0.10 xG
3rd 5:21BUFZ. Benson0.14 xG
3rd 5:54BUFJ. ZuckerPP0.22 xG
3rd 14:00BOSC. Mittelstadt0.26 xG
OT 0:38BOSP. Zacha0.08 xG

Team Stats

BOSBUF

31Shots on goal25

2.59Expected goals2.71

57Shot attempts58

305v5 shots on goal18

0/2Power play2/3

28Hits21

19Blocked shots13

8Penalty minutes8

15Giveaways11

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 2.59 xGBUF 2.71 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS29 on goal, 4 scored

BUF25 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	1	2	3	3	0	0	+3	0	21:56	2:59
P. Zacha	C	1	1	2	1	3	0	+2	0	14:33	1:42
F. Minten	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	2	20:14	1:54
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	1	1	0	0	3	+1	0	18:00	0:00
C. Mittelstadt	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	14:28	2:06
V. Arvidsson	LW	1	0	1	3	3	0	+1	0	13:32	2:12
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	2	16:41	1:40
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:53	1:47
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	14:59	0:54
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	10:45	0:09
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	9:58	0:07
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	7:32	0:07
C. McAvoy	D	0	1	1	1	2	3	+1	2	24:45	2:01
N. Zadorov	D	0	1	1	3	6	2	+2	0	19:58	0:00
J. Aspirot	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	17:41	0:21
H. Lindholm	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	20:10	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	2	17:29	2:01
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	4	2	1	+1	0	17:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Korpisalo	25	22	3	.880	60:38	Win
J. Swayman	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Thompson	C	0	2	2	3	1	0	-1	0	18:44	3:55
J. Zucker	LW	2	0	2	4	0	0	-1	0	15:58	3:53
J. Quinn	RW	0	1	1	0	1	1	-1	0	16:23	4:05
Z. Benson	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	11:35	0:00
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	3	3	1	-2	0	17:49	0:00
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	17:12	1:45
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	16:49	2:20
N. Ostlund	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:31	0:12
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	14:06	0:00
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:32	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	12:01	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:26	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	3	2	0	-3	2	23:45	3:58
O. Power	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	21:30	0:07
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	21:16	0:00
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	20:15	0:10
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	15:30	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	2	14:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	31	27	4	.871	60:26	OT loss
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak17:10F. Minten16:34M. Khusnutdinov16:06

Line 2E. Lindholm13:40M. Geekie13:56L. Reichel13:45

Line 3P. Zacha11:23C. Mittelstadt11:49V. Arvidsson11:20

Line 4S. Kuraly8:12M. Kastelic7:32T. Jeannot7:25

Pair 1C. McAvoy18:53J. Aspirot16:55

Pair 2A. Peeke16:07N. Zadorov17:19

Pair 3H. Lindholm16:13M. Lohrei14:16

BUF

Line 1J. Norris14:07N. Ostlund13:57J. Doan13:37

Line 2T. Thompson13:53P. Krebs13:23A. Tuch13:48

Line 3J. Zucker11:55J. Quinn12:08R. McLeod11:28

Line 4S. Carrick10:26Z. Benson9:50B. Malenstyn10:20

Pair 1B. Byram18:38O. Power18:19

Pair 2R. Dahlin17:49M. Samuelsson17:45

Pair 3L. Stanley13:59C. Timmins13:13

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 2.9, BUF 3.6	BOS 4, BUF 3
Total goals	6.5	7
Shots on goal	BOS 26.3, BUF 30.8	BOS 31, BUF 25
Win chance	BUF 61%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.6	3	1.18	3	40%	1
BUF T. Thompson	3.5	3	1.05	2	41%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.6	3	0.87	0	33%	0
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.4	3	0.57	1	22%	1
BUF R. Dahlin	2.4	3	0.92	0	18%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.2	1	0.64	0	24%	0
BOS M. Geekie	2.1	1	0.67	0	28%	0
BUF J. Quinn	2.1	0	0.59	1	20%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.1	4	0.66	2	25%	2
BOS E. Lindholm	1.8	3	0.60	0	22%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.7	1	0.45	1	21%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.7	2	0.66	0	28%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.7	1	0.60	1	11%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.6	1	0.58	2	20%	1
BUF Z. Benson	1.6	2	0.46	1	14%	1
BUF O. Power	1.6	1	0.45	0	8%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.4	0	0.31	0	6%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.4	1	0.53	0	12%	0
BUF S. Carrick	1.3	0	0.27	0	12%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.3	1	0.43	0	8%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.3	0	0.64	0	18%	0
BUF L. Stanley	1.3	0	0.31	0	7%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.2	1	0.49	1	16%	1
BUF P. Krebs	1.2	1	0.42	0	12%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.2	3	0.22	1	6%	0
BUF N. Ostlund	1.2	1	0.47	0	17%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.1	0	0.33	0	7%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.1	3	0.19	0	9%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.0	2	0.28	0	4%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	1.0	0	0.34	1	14%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	1.0	0	0.21	0	9%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.0	2	0.18	0	9%	0
BOS L. Reichel	0.9	2	0.27	0	11%	0
BOS A. Peeke	0.9	4	0.17	0	4%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	0.8	1	0.20	0	9%	0
BOS J. Aspirot	0.7	2	0.20	1	5%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.