Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
BOS3
BUF4
BUF beat BOS 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.96 expected goals to 1.89. BUF outshot BOS 38 to 20. T. Thompson led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). T. Thompson had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. U. Luukkonen stopped 17 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| BUF | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
- 1st 10:52BOSM. Geekie0.14 xG
- 3rd 1:08BOSE. Lindholm0.21 xG
- 3rd 12:02BUFT. Thompson0.13 xG
- 3rd 15:44BUFT. Thompson0.14 xG
- 3rd 16:36BUFM. Samuelsson0.09 xG
- 3rd 18:48BUFA. TuchEN0.83 xG
- 3rd 19:52BOSD. PastrnakPP0.06 xG
Team Stats
BOSBUF
20Shots on goal38
1.89Expected goals3.96
44Shot attempts68
135v5 shots on goal26
1/3Power play0/4
38Hits53
14Blocked shots11
12Penalty minutes10
13Giveaways13
5Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 1.89 xGBUF 3.96 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:15 | 3:25 |
| M. Geekie | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:16 | 3:25 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:18 | 3:25 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 17:02 | 2:52 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:07 | 0:56 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:13 | 0:00 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:16 | 0:00 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 12:45 | 0:34 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 12:19 | 0:23 |
| J. Hagens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:02 | 0:00 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:51 | 0:00 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:21 | 0:00 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:42 | 0:00 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 24:18 | 3:25 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:06 | 0:23 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Aspirot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:09 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:23 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 37 | 34 | 3 | .919 | 58:49 | Loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Thompson | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 20:01 | 4:21 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:40 | 3:15 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 16:10 | 0:12 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 4:17 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:38 | 3:36 |
| J. Norris | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:32 | 3:53 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:14 | 3:02 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:28 | 2:59 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:10 | 4:22 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:39 | 0:04 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:38 | 0:04 |
| J. Dunne | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:20 | 0:04 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:20 | 0:04 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:55 | 0:02 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 24:05 | 4:48 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:50 | 3:02 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13:48 | 0:00 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:51 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 20 | 17 | 3 | .850 | 59:53 | Win |
| A. Lyon | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
BOS
Line 1D. Pastrnak16:47M. Geekie15:12E. Lindholm14:25
Line 2P. Zacha12:52C. Mittelstadt11:14V. Arvidsson11:32
Line 3F. Minten11:49J. Hagens11:02M. Khusnutdinov11:06
Line 4S. Kuraly9:24T. Jeannot7:16M. Kastelic7:42
Pair 1N. Zadorov17:22A. Peeke16:34
Pair 2C. McAvoy15:42J. Aspirot14:36
Pair 3H. Lindholm15:33M. Lohrei15:17
BUF
Line 1A. Tuch15:47P. Krebs15:19T. Thompson14:52
Line 4J. Greenway7:52B. Malenstyn9:01J. Dunne8:16
Pair 1M. Samuelsson19:36R. Dahlin18:52
Pair 3L. Stanley10:12C. Timmins11:21
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 3.1, BUF 3.5 | BOS 3, BUF 4 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 26.3, BUF 30.2 | BOS 20, BUF 38 |
| Win chance | BUF 56% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.3 | 7 | 0.96 | 3 | 39% | 2 |
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.1 | 4 | 1.11 | 3 | 37% | 1 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.7 | 4 | 0.84 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 2.6 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| BOS V. Arvidsson | 2.4 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.4 | 2 | 0.89 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.2 | 3 | 0.68 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 2.0 | 3 | 0.61 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.0 | 2 | 0.67 | 3 | 29% | 1 |
| BUF J. Doan | 1.9 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF J. Norris | 1.7 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.7 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.6 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.5 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.4 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS S. Kuraly | 1.4 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.3 | 0 | 0.45 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.2 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.2 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.2 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF L. Stanley | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF C. Timmins | 1.0 | 4 | 0.25 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 1.0 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS T. Jeannot | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS J. Aspirot | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF J. Dunne | 0.9 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.