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Game Recap
BOS4
BUF2
BOS beat BUF 4-2, with the chances close: 3.27 expected goals to 3.56. BUF outshot BOS 36 to 26. V. Arvidsson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). R. Dahlin had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. J. Swayman stopped 34 of 36.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| BUF | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
- 2nd 4:54BOSV. Arvidsson0.06 xG
- 2nd 16:29BOSM. Geekie0.00 xG
- 2nd 18:10BOSP. ZachaPP0.08 xG
- 3rd 0:16BOSV. Arvidsson0.12 xG
- 3rd 13:54BUFB. Byram0.10 xG
- 3rd 15:08BUFP. Krebs0.21 xG
Team Stats
BOSBUF
26Shots on goal36
3.27Expected goals3.56
57Shot attempts82
235v5 shots on goal13
1/5Power play0/5
32Hits30
27Blocked shots10
47Penalty minutes47
20Giveaways15
5Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 3.27 xGBUF 3.56 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20:04 | 5:42 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:52 | 3:21 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:23 | 2:50 |
| M. Geekie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:17 | 5:19 |
| P. Zacha | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:24 | 4:31 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:18 | 4:32 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:04 | 3:44 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:50 | 0:00 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Hagens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 11:35 | 2:41 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10:22 | 0:00 |
| J. Aspirot | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 14:22 | 0:05 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | +2 | 4 | 27:22 | 4:31 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 27:40 | 3:44 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 16 | 15:53 | 0:11 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 12 | 15:41 | 0:03 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:17 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 36 | 34 | 2 | .944 | 59:25 | Win |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 21:42 | 4:19 |
| P. Krebs | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 13:13 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:36 | 7:40 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:28 | 2:38 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:56 | 7:51 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 14 | 16:55 | 5:32 |
| J. Norris | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:39 | 5:36 |
| J. Doan | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:04 | 3:34 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:12 | 0:00 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 12 | 11:37 | 2:11 |
| J. Dunne | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:29 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 23:28 | 7:32 |
| B. Byram | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:58 | 2:30 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:50 | 0:37 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:57 | 0:00 |
| C. Timmins | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 13:44 | 0:00 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 12:51 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 19 | 15 | 4 | .789 | 40:16 | Loss |
| A. Lyon | 7 | 7 | 0 | 1.000 | 14:10 |
Lines at 5-on-5
BOS
Line 1E. Lindholm10:01D. Pastrnak10:58M. Geekie9:34
Line 2M. Khusnutdinov8:15F. Minten9:11J. Hagens8:31
Line 3P. Zacha7:49C. Mittelstadt8:34V. Arvidsson8:09
Line 4S. Kuraly7:08T. Jeannot7:06M. Kastelic6:20
Pair 1N. Zadorov11:49A. Peeke11:13
Pair 2C. McAvoy12:07J. Aspirot10:59
Pair 3H. Lindholm11:35M. Lohrei10:11
BUF
Line 3T. Thompson8:41P. Krebs10:52A. Tuch8:24
Line 4J. Greenway7:37J. Dunne7:29B. Malenstyn6:15
Pair 2M. Samuelsson12:17R. Dahlin11:22
Pair 3L. Stanley9:03C. Timmins9:10
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 3.1, BUF 3.5 | BOS 4, BUF 2 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 25.8, BUF 30.7 | BOS 26, BUF 36 |
| Win chance | BUF 58% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.4 | 6 | 0.99 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.2 | 0 | 1.15 | 2 | 37% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.7 | 3 | 0.87 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 2.5 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.4 | 6 | 0.89 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS V. Arvidsson | 2.3 | 5 | 0.61 | 2 | 23% | 2 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.2 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.0 | 1 | 0.72 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF J. Doan | 1.9 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.7 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF J. Norris | 1.7 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.7 | 1 | 0.62 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.4 | 3 | 0.39 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.4 | 2 | 0.59 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS S. Kuraly | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.3 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.3 | 4 | 0.48 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.2 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.1 | 2 | 0.49 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.1 | 4 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF L. Stanley | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.1 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF C. Timmins | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS J. Aspirot | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF J. Dunne | 0.9 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS T. Jeannot | 0.8 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.