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Game Recap
BOS2
CAR8
CAR beat BOS 8-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.51 expected goals to 1.89. CAR outshot BOS 37 to 15. M. Necas led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). J. Roslovic had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. P. Kochetkov stopped 13 of 15.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| CAR | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
- 1st 6:28CARJ. Roslovic0.24 xG
- 1st 13:11BOSB. MarchandPP0.09 xG
- 1st 17:14CARA. SvechnikovPP0.11 xG
- 1st 17:52CARJ. Blake0.07 xG
- 1st 18:06CARM. NecasPP0.04 xG
- 2nd 3:38BOSH. Lindholm0.21 xG
- 2nd 8:51CARA. SvechnikovPP0.19 xG
- 2nd 9:32CARJ. Roslovic0.28 xG
- 3rd 7:36CARS. Walker0.09 xG
- 3rd 12:13CARJ. Kotkaniemi0.06 xG
Team Stats
BOSCAR
15Shots on goal37
1.89Expected goals3.51
33Shot attempts63
95v5 shots on goal26
1/5Power play3/5
32Hits12
13Blocked shots7
10Penalty minutes8
13Giveaways19
6Takeaways11
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 1.89 xGCAR 3.51 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:23 | 5:10 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:21 | 4:22 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:03 | 4:33 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 14:30 | 0:15 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:17 | 4:27 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:37 | 3:04 |
| M. Poitras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:58 | 2:43 |
| M. Jones | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 14:33 | 0:00 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:10 | 2:56 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 13:11 | 0:13 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:09 | 0:00 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:54 | 0:00 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:53 | 2:21 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 20:46 | 0:00 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:25 | 3:07 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:05 | 4:24 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 18:55 | 0:00 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:23 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 22 | 16 | 6 | .727 | 29:32 | Loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 15 | 13 | 2 | .867 | 30:28 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Necas | C | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:00 | 6:19 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:22 | 6:17 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:08 | 6:06 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:52 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:03 | 6:12 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:15 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 13:31 | 1:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:22 |
| J. Blake | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 12:00 | 0:55 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 14:32 | 0:48 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:19 | 0:15 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:29 | 5:59 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:11 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:47 | 0:15 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:45 | 0:26 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:02 | 1:14 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 18:56 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 15 | 13 | 2 | .867 | 59:53 | Win |
| S. Martin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 2.6, CAR 3.3 | BOS 2, CAR 8 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 24.0, CAR 35.2 | BOS 15, CAR 37 |
| Win chance | CAR 61% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.7 | 3 | 0.98 | 2 | 38% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.9 | 4 | 0.81 | 3 | 26% | 2 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.9 | 2 | 0.97 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.8 | 2 | 0.69 | 4 | 23% | 1 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.3 | 3 | 0.70 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.2 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.1 | 3 | 0.71 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.8 | 0 | 0.56 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.8 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.7 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.7 | 1 | 0.54 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.7 | 6 | 0.46 | 2 | 15% | 2 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.7 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.7 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.6 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.6 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.6 | 5 | 0.38 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Drury | 1.5 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.5 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.5 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS T. Frederic | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.4 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.3 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BOS J. Brazeau | 1.3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS M. Jones | 1.2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.2 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS M. Poitras | 0.9 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.8 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.