CAR beat BOS 3-2, with the chances close: 2.50 expected goals to 2.78. BOS outshot CAR 34 to 23. M. Geekie led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). D. Pastrnak had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.9. P. Kochetkov stopped 32 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| CAR | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 2.78 xGCAR 2.50 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Geekie | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:59 | 1:37 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:56 | 2:19 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:49 | 1:39 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:22 | 2:00 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:17 | 1:40 |
| R. Tufte | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:46 | 2:07 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:13 |
| M. Poitras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:47 | 1:28 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11:42 | 0:13 |
| V. Lettieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:56 | 2:02 |
| P. Brown | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:21 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:14 | 0:00 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:58 | 0:00 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:55 | 0:21 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:58 | 0:13 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:52 | 1:48 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:57 | 0:00 |
| I. Mitchell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:57 | 1:59 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Korpisalo | 23 | 20 | 3 | .870 | 59:41 | Loss |
| J. Swayman | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Aho | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:16 | 3:14 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:52 | 3:16 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:37 | 2:15 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:51 | 2:36 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:47 | 3:14 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:10 | 0:09 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:57 | 2:39 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:54 | 0:00 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:39 | 3:14 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:49 | 0:07 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:43 | 2:44 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:47 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 23:10 | 3:19 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:20 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:53 | 0:22 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:31 | 2:41 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:26 | 0:10 |
| R. Stillman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 34 | 32 | 2 | .941 | 60:00 | Win |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 2.5, CAR 3.1 | BOS 2, CAR 3 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 23.3, CAR 32.3 | BOS 34, CAR 23 |
| Win chance | CAR 61% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.9 | 7 | 1.15 | 1 | 40% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.8 | 1 | 1.03 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| CAR M. Rantanen | 2.7 | 3 | 1.04 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.5 | 3 | 0.77 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.5 | 2 | 0.82 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.2 | 3 | 0.43 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.9 | 4 | 0.56 | 2 | 23% | 2 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.9 | 3 | 0.56 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.9 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.9 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.6 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.6 | 4 | 0.64 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.6 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.6 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.6 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.5 | 0 | 0.42 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.5 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.5 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.4 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.2 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS V. Lettieri | 1.1 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.0 | 4 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR T. Jost | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS M. Poitras | 0.9 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 0.9 | 3 | 0.17 | 2 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS P. Brown | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS R. Tufte | 0.6 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS I. Mitchell | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CAR R. Stillman | 0.5 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.