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Game Recap
BOS5
CAR6
CAR beat BOS 6-5 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.89 expected goals to 2.30. CAR outshot BOS 41 to 21. M. Geekie scored three for BOS. K. Miller had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. B. Bussi stopped 16 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| CAR | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
- 1st 4:40BOSH. Lindholm0.05 xG
- 1st 10:04CARA. Svechnikov0.05 xG
- 1st 11:38CARK. Miller0.02 xG
- 1st 13:36BOSM. Geekie0.50 xG
- 1st 17:25BOSM. Geekie0.20 xG
- 2nd 5:17CARL. StankovenPP0.14 xG
- 2nd 7:20CARW. Carrier0.16 xG
- 2nd 8:33CART. Hall0.17 xG
- 2nd 18:50BOSM. Geekie0.10 xG
- 3rd 12:33BOSP. Zacha0.17 xG
- OT 1:13CARJ. Slavin0.28 xG
Team Stats
BOSCAR
21Shots on goal41
2.30Expected goals4.89
43Shot attempts69
195v5 shots on goal34
0/2Power play1/4
18Hits30
10Blocked shots11
8Penalty minutes2
22Giveaways17
2Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 2.30 xGCAR 4.89 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Geekie | C | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:37 | 1:42 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:09 | 3:00 |
| P. Zacha | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:59 | 2:18 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:54 | 2:18 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:39 | 1:25 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:16 | 0:46 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:00 | 1:32 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:32 | 2:15 |
| A. Steeves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:13 | 0:00 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:54 | 0:10 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:15 | 0:13 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:20 | 0:00 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 26:29 | 2:20 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:41 | 0:15 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 22:19 | 1:38 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 18:55 | 0:08 |
| J. Aspirot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:29 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:04 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 24 | 19 | 5 | .792 | 28:33 | |
| J. Korpisalo | 17 | 16 | 1 | .941 | 32:40 | OT loss |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:12 | 3:37 |
| T. Hall | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:24 | 3:37 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:17 | 3:17 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:02 | 3:37 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:40 | 3:17 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:36 | 2:07 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:49 | 0:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 6:39 | 0:00 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:18 | 4:35 |
| S. Jarvis | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:03 | 3:17 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:05 | 0:00 |
| N. Deslauriers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:55 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:26 | 0:07 |
| J. Slavin | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:53 | 0:05 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:43 | 3:37 |
| K. Miller | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:32 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 19:11 | 3:17 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Bussi | 21 | 16 | 5 | .762 | 61:13 | Win |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
BOS
Line 1E. Lindholm16:16D. Pastrnak17:09M. Geekie15:51
Line 2P. Zacha13:47C. Mittelstadt14:17V. Arvidsson13:36
Line 3F. Minten13:12M. Khusnutdinov12:12A. Steeves10:13
Line 4S. Kuraly6:02T. Jeannot8:54M. Kastelic5:26
Pair 1C. McAvoy19:49J. Aspirot16:55
Pair 2A. Peeke15:05N. Zadorov16:32
Pair 3H. Lindholm16:10M. Lohrei14:04
CAR
Line 1T. Hall15:47L. Stankoven16:10J. Blake16:08
Line 2J. Staal13:31N. Ehlers14:43J. Martinook13:38
Line 3S. Aho12:59S. Jarvis12:33A. Svechnikov11:50
Line 4N. Deslauriers6:55M. Jankowski6:22W. Carrier6:39
Pair 1S. Walker17:27A. Nikishin16:23
Pair 2S. Gostisbehere15:54K. Miller16:21
Pair 3J. Slavin19:17J. Chatfield12:53
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 2.9, CAR 3.6 | BOS 5, CAR 6 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 22.6, CAR 33.8 | BOS 21, CAR 41 |
| Win chance | CAR 62% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.1 | 1 | 1.27 | 2 | 38% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.8 | 2 | 0.77 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.7 | 2 | 0.83 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.4 | 3 | 0.86 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.3 | 5 | 0.72 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.2 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| BOS V. Arvidsson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.65 | 2 | 22% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.1 | 2 | 0.56 | 2 | 22% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.9 | 2 | 0.30 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.9 | 3 | 0.60 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.8 | 4 | 0.68 | 3 | 26% | 3 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.7 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.5 | 2 | 0.59 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.5 | 4 | 0.31 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.5 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.5 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.4 | 0 | 0.59 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.4 | 2 | 0.64 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.4 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.4 | 6 | 0.41 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.2 | 3 | 0.21 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| BOS S. Kuraly | 1.1 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.0 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS A. Steeves | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.9 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CAR N. Deslauriers | 0.9 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 0.8 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS T. Jeannot | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS J. Aspirot | 0.6 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.