Game Recap: BOS 1, CAR 2, October 27, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

BOS1

FinalTue, Oct 27, 2026Every game that night

CAR2

CAR beat BOS 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.90 expected goals to 1.83. CAR outshot BOS 30 to 15. P. Kochetkov stopped 14 of 15.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BOS	1	0	0	1
CAR	1	0	1	2

1st 1:31BOSP. ZachaPP0.25 xG
1st 19:08CARJ. Blake0.19 xG
3rd 10:19CARS. Aho0.20 xG

Team Stats

BOSCAR

15Shots on goal30

1.83Expected goals3.90

39Shot attempts64

95v5 shots on goal25

1/5Power play0/4

12Hits23

15Blocked shots16

13Penalty minutes15

15Giveaways15

3Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 1.83 xGCAR 3.90 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS15 on goal, 1 scored

CAR30 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	-2	0	22:39	6:38
P. Zacha	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	20:53	5:47
E. Lindholm	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	19:17	5:36
J. Peterka	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	19:24	3:50
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:49	5:53
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	15:34	1:58
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	13:46	0:00
J. Hagens	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:31	2:48
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:27	2:37
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	10:23	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7	8:41	0:00
M. Poitras	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	8:36	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	26:32	5:50
H. Lindholm	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	2	20:33	0:08
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	0	3	4	0	2	18:31	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	18:12	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	15:03	2:32
F. Brunet	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	12:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	30	28	2	.933	57:47	Loss
M. DiPietro	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	1	0	1	5	1	0	+1	2	21:18	4:11
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	1	1	2	3	0	+1	2	16:47	4:13
J. Blake	RW	1	0	1	4	2	0	+1	4	16:47	4:13
N. Ehlers	LW	0	1	1	4	1	0	+1	0	16:16	4:11
W. Carrier	LW	0	1	1	4	0	1	+1	0	14:00	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:16	2:13
S. Jarvis	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:29	2:11
L. Stankoven	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	15:03	2:13
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	2	13:53	0:00
E. Robinson	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	12:17	0:00
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:18	1:52
N. Deslauriers	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	5	7:29	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	23:16	0:19
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	22:32	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	20:24	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	3	3	3	0	0	18:18	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	15:24	4:20
J. Välimäki	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	13:43	2:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Kochetkov	15	14	1	.933	60:00	Win
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak14:55J. Peterka14:39P. Zacha13:09

Line 2C. Mittelstadt10:41J. Hagens10:35E. Lindholm10:15

Line 3F. Minten11:46M. Geekie10:02M. Khusnutdinov10:42

Line 4M. Kastelic8:16M. Poitras8:36T. Jeannot8:19

Pair 1H. Lindholm17:18C. McAvoy15:49

Pair 2N. Zadorov16:07W. Borgen14:54

Pair 3F. Brunet12:04M. Lohrei11:53

CAR

Line 1W. Carrier13:56S. Aho13:10A. Svechnikov12:30

Line 2L. Stankoven12:15J. Blake11:59N. Ehlers11:30

Line 3M. Jankowski10:18S. Jarvis10:40J. Martinook10:53

Line 4E. Robinson9:16J. Kotkaniemi8:26N. Deslauriers7:29

Pair 1J. Slavin17:07J. Chatfield17:03

Pair 2K. Miller16:11S. Walker14:34

Pair 3S. Gostisbehere11:04J. Välimäki11:39

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

11 of 26 overs hit (42%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.5	-105	+115	2	Under
BOS D. Pastrnak	2.5	-130	+116	1	Under
CAR J. Blake	2.5	+115	-115	4	Over
CAR L. Stankoven	2.5	+110	-140	1	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	2.5	+105	-125	4	Over
CAR S. Aho	2.5	-114	+100	5	Over
CAR S. Jarvis	2.5	+108	-135	0	Under
BOS C. McAvoy	1.5	+114	-140	0	Under
BOS E. Lindholm	1.5	+116	-125	1	Under
CAR E. Robinson	1.5	-111	–	2	Over
BOS F. Minten	1.5	+105	-115	1	Under
CAR J. Chatfield	1.5	+125	-155	1	Under
BOS J. Hagens	1.5	+130	-105	1	Under
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.5	+170	–	0	Under
CAR J. Martinook	1.5	+110	-110	1	Under
BOS J. Peterka	1.5	-125	+100	2	Over
CAR J. Slavin	1.5	+125	-150	1	Under
CAR K. Miller	1.5	+120	–	0	Under
BOS M. Geekie	1.5	-105	-115	2	Over
CAR N. Deslauriers	1.5	+175	–	0	Under
BOS P. Zacha	1.5	+100	-125	2	Over
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.5	-125	+100	1	Under
CAR S. Walker	1.5	-148	+125	3	Over
CAR W. Carrier	1.5	+115	-135	4	Over
BOS H. Lindholm	0.5	-225	+180	1	Over
BOS M. Kastelic	0.5	-220	–	1	Over

3 of 35 overs hit (9%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	+180	-220	0	Under
BOS C. McAvoy	0.5	+650	-1000	0	Under
BOS C. Mittelstadt	0.5	+625	-700	0	Under
BOS D. Pastrnak	0.5	+190	-225	0	Under
BOS E. Lindholm	0.5	+350	-400	0	Under
CAR E. Robinson	0.5	+600	-700	0	Under
BOS F. Brunet	0.5	+1400	-4000	0	Under
BOS F. Minten	0.5	+430	-550	0	Under
BOS H. Lindholm	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
CAR J. Blake	0.5	+230	-250	1	Over
CAR J. Chatfield	0.5	+1400	-2800	0	Under
BOS J. Hagens	0.5	+440	-550	0	Under
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
CAR J. Martinook	0.5	+550	-700	0	Under
BOS J. Peterka	0.5	+320	-450	0	Under
CAR J. Slavin	0.5	+1500	-2500	0	Under
CAR J. Välimäki	0.5	+1600	-3500	0	Under
CAR K. Miller	0.5	+800	-2000	0	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	+240	-285	0	Under
BOS M. Geekie	0.5	+290	-420	0	Under
BOS M. Kastelic	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
BOS M. Lohrei	0.5	+1100	-3500	0	Under
BOS M. Poitras	0.5	+900	-1200	0	Under
CAR N. Deslauriers	0.5	+700	-2000	0	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	+225	-275	0	Under
BOS N. Zadorov	0.5	+1700	-3500	0	Under
BOS P. Zacha	0.5	+340	-450	1	Over
CAR S. Aho	0.5	+175	-200	1	Over
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
CAR S. Jarvis	0.5	+220	-285	0	Under
CAR S. Walker	0.5	+900	-1400	0	Under
BOS T. Jeannot	0.5	+1300	-2500	0	Under
BOS W. Borgen	0.5	+2500	-5000	0	Under
CAR W. Carrier	0.5	+550	-700	0	Under

5 of 24 overs hit (21%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	+130	-165	1	Over
BOS C. McAvoy	0.5	+120	-135	0	Under
BOS C. Mittelstadt	0.5	+300	-350	0	Under
BOS D. Pastrnak	0.5	+110	-110	1	Over
BOS E. Lindholm	0.5	+255	-295	1	Over
BOS F. Brunet	0.5	+240	–	0	Under
BOS F. Minten	0.5	+300	-370	0	Under
BOS H. Lindholm	0.5	+275	-350	0	Under
CAR J. Blake	0.5	+140	-160	0	Under
BOS J. Hagens	0.5	+290	-360	0	Under
CAR J. Martinook	0.5	+270	-375	0	Under
BOS J. Peterka	0.5	+220	-235	0	Under
CAR J. Slavin	0.5	+300	-375	0	Under
CAR K. Miller	0.5	+240	-325	0	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	+220	-300	0	Under
BOS M. Geekie	0.5	+220	-255	0	Under
BOS M. Lohrei	0.5	+310	-425	0	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	+144	-160	1	Over
BOS P. Zacha	0.5	+164	-175	0	Under
CAR S. Aho	0.5	+102	-115	0	Under
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	+115	-125	0	Under
CAR S. Jarvis	0.5	+180	-215	0	Under
CAR S. Walker	0.5	+265	-325	0	Under
CAR W. Carrier	0.5	+300	-380	1	Over

8 of 26 overs hit (31%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	-165	+140	1	Over
BOS C. McAvoy	0.5	-113	+100	0	Under
BOS C. Mittelstadt	0.5	+196	-200	0	Under
BOS D. Pastrnak	0.5	-220	+180	1	Over
BOS E. Lindholm	0.5	+132	-135	1	Over
CAR E. Robinson	0.5	+150	–	0	Under
BOS F. Brunet	0.5	+190	–	0	Under
BOS F. Minten	0.5	+164	-180	0	Under
BOS H. Lindholm	0.5	+215	-250	0	Under
CAR J. Blake	0.5	-160	+140	1	Over
BOS J. Hagens	0.5	+162	-175	0	Under
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	0.5	+170	–	0	Under
CAR J. Martinook	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
BOS J. Peterka	0.5	+110	-115	0	Under
CAR J. Slavin	0.5	+240	-275	0	Under
CAR K. Miller	0.5	+172	-200	0	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	-105	-115	0	Under
BOS M. Geekie	0.5	+110	-125	0	Under
BOS M. Lohrei	0.5	+230	-310	0	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	-145	+135	1	Over
BOS P. Zacha	0.5	-106	+100	1	Over
CAR S. Aho	0.5	-180	+160	1	Over
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	-125	-105	0	Under
CAR S. Jarvis	0.5	-130	+105	0	Under
CAR S. Walker	0.5	+200	-220	0	Under
CAR W. Carrier	0.5	+170	-190	1	Over

3 of 18 overs hit (17%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
CAR A. Svechnikov	0.5	+195	-250	0	Under
BOS C. McAvoy	0.5	+310	-425	0	Under
BOS C. Mittelstadt	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
BOS D. Pastrnak	0.5	+185	-280	1	Over
BOS E. Lindholm	0.5	+360	-650	1	Over
BOS F. Minten	0.5	+500	-750	0	Under
CAR J. Blake	0.5	+200	-250	0	Under
BOS J. Hagens	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
BOS J. Peterka	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
CAR K. Miller	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CAR L. Stankoven	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
BOS M. Geekie	0.5	+300	-450	0	Under
BOS M. Lohrei	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CAR N. Ehlers	0.5	+188	-260	0	Under
BOS P. Zacha	0.5	+275	-450	1	Over
CAR S. Aho	0.5	+180	-185	0	Under
CAR S. Gostisbehere	0.5	+230	-240	0	Under
CAR S. Jarvis	0.5	+300	-450	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
BOS J. Swayman	29.5	-110	-114	28	Under
CAR P. Kochetkov	20.5	+100	-135	14	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
BOS C. McAvoy	2.5	-105	-135	1	Under
BOS H. Lindholm	1.5	-145	+105	2	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 2.7, CAR 3.4	BOS 1, CAR 2
Total goals	6.1	3
Shots on goal	BOS 21.9, CAR 33.6	BOS 15, CAR 30
Win chance	CAR 62%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	2.8	1	1.04	1	34%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.7	0	0.73	0	28%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.6	2	0.74	1	27%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.6	1	0.59	0	25%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.6	5	0.90	1	31%	1
CAR J. Blake	2.5	4	0.76	1	24%	1
CAR N. Ehlers	2.4	4	0.78	1	26%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.9	3	0.34	0	9%	0
BOS J. Peterka	1.8	2	0.57	0	23%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.6	1	0.59	0	11%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.6	1	0.37	0	14%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.6	1	0.30	0	7%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.6	2	0.62	0	25%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.6	4	0.33	1	13%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.6	1	0.44	0	19%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.5	2	0.63	1	21%	1
CAR J. Chatfield	1.5	1	0.28	0	8%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.5	1	0.54	1	20%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.5	0	0.44	0	9%	0
BOS J. Hagens	1.5	1	0.40	0	13%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.4	0	0.39	0	18%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.3	2	0.29	0	12%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.3	0	0.54	0	9%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.2	0	0.31	0	12%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.0	1	0.44	0	15%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.0	1	0.28	0	5%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.0	1	0.23	0	10%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	0.9	0	0.22	0	5%	0
CAR J. Välimäki	0.9	1	0.20	0	4%	0
CAR N. Deslauriers	0.9	0	0.13	0	6%	0
BOS M. Poitras	0.9	0	0.29	0	9%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.8	0	0.31	0	13%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	0.8	0	0.26	0	6%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	0.7	2	0.20	0	9%	0
BOS F. Brunet	0.7	0	0.18	0	3%	0
BOS W. Borgen	0.7	0	0.19	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.