Game Recap: BOS 4, CGY 3 (OT), December 17, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

BOS4

Final/OTTue, Dec 17, 2024Every game that night

CGY3

BOS beat CGY 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.57 expected goals to 1.95. BOS outshot CGY 35 to 23. E. Lindholm led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). E. Lindholm had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Swayman stopped 20 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
BOS	0	1	2	1	4
CGY	0	3	0	0	3

2nd 0:54CGYM. Coronato0.13 xG
2nd 1:21CGYN. Kadri0.13 xG
2nd 6:31BOSE. Lindholm0.10 xG
2nd 17:19CGYR. Lomberg0.10 xG
3rd 4:14BOSM. Geekie0.27 xG
3rd 6:51BOSM. McLaughlin0.30 xG
OT 4:22BOSD. Pastrnak0.15 xG

Team Stats

BOSCGY

35Shots on goal23

3.57Expected goals1.95

65Shot attempts57

285v5 shots on goal22

0/1Power play0/0

17Hits23

12Blocked shots15

0Penalty minutes2

27Giveaways24

9Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 3.57 xGCGY 1.95 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS34 on goal, 4 scored

CGY23 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
E. Lindholm	C	1	1	2	7	1	1	0	19:05	1:14
D. Pastrnak	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	23:06	1:52
B. Marchand	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	20:12	1:12
M. Geekie	C	1	0	1	6	1	0	0	18:05	0:08
M. McLaughlin	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	9:36	0:00
P. Zacha	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	22:30	1:15
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	18:48	0:45
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	14:38	0:44
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	14:25	0:48
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	13:03	0:00
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	8:31	0:00
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:19	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	23:24	1:12
M. Lohrei	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	20:23	0:48
A. Peeke	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	+2	19:03	0:02
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	20:25	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-2	20:10	0:00
J. Oesterle	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	19:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	23	20	3	.870	64:22	Win
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Backlund	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	21:08	0:00
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	20:24	0:00
M. Coronato	RW	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	0	20:13	0:00
N. Kadri	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	18:31	0:00
B. Coleman	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	-1	0	17:33	0:00
M. Pospisil	C	0	1	1	1	7	0	0	0	16:16	0:00
C. Zary	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	15:06	0:00
J. Pelletier	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	13:46	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	9:51	0:00
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	14:21	0:00
K. Rooney	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	10:28	0:00
W. Duehr	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	8:53	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	-2	0	25:19	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	23:59	0:00
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	21:53	0:00
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	2	18:05	0:00
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:42	0:00
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	2	3	3	0	0	17:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	35	31	4	.886	64:22	OT loss
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamElias Lindholm BOS Faces CGY, his team until Jan 20241 G, 1 A, 7 SOG
Old teamNikita Zadorov BOS Faces CGY, his team until Nov 20233 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 3.0, CGY 2.8	BOS 4, CGY 3
Total goals	5.8	7
Shots on goal	BOS 27.5, CGY 30.4	BOS 35, CGY 23
Win chance	BOS 52%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.7	4	1.13	1	40%	1
CGY N. Kadri	3.2	2	0.79	1	27%	1
CGY M. Backlund	2.5	1	0.50	1	18%	0
BOS B. Marchand	2.3	2	0.80	1	28%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.2	0	0.52	1	22%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.1	2	0.49	0	11%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.0	4	0.43	1	17%	1
CGY Y. Sharangovich	2.0	0	0.52	0	23%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.9	3	0.68	0	22%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.8	2	0.75	1	21%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.8	1	0.41	1	13%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.8	2	0.46	0	10%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.7	6	0.50	1	19%	1
BOS C. McAvoy	1.6	3	0.50	1	10%	0
BOS T. Frederic	1.6	1	0.46	0	19%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.6	3	0.46	1	17%	0
BOS J. Brazeau	1.5	0	0.44	0	18%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.4	7	0.52	2	20%	1
BOS C. Coyle	1.4	0	0.51	0	19%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.3	3	0.32	0	10%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.3	1	0.28	0	12%	0
BOS M. McLaughlin	1.2	1	0.25	1	15%	1
CGY J. Pelletier	1.1	1	0.23	1	10%	0
BOS J. Oesterle	1.1	2	0.21	0	3%	0
BOS C. Koepke	1.0	0	0.27	0	12%	0
CGY B. Pachal	1.0	2	0.12	0	3%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	0	0.23	0	4%	0
CGY J. Bean	1.0	1	0.21	0	5%	0
CGY W. Duehr	1.0	0	0.24	0	11%	0
BOS B. Carlo	1.0	0	0.17	0	5%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	0.9	0	0.35	1	6%	0
CGY K. Rooney	0.9	0	0.15	0	8%	0
BOS A. Peeke	0.8	2	0.16	1	3%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.8	1	0.13	1	8%	1
BOS J. Beecher	0.8	0	0.23	0	11%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.5	1	0.11	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.