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Game Recap
BOS1
CGY2
CGY beat BOS 2-1 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.81 expected goals to 2.34. D. Wolf stopped 25 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| CGY | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 18:06BOSA. Peeke0.07 xG
- 2nd 13:32CGYB. Coleman0.09 xG
- OT 1:53CGYC. ZaryPP0.07 xG
Team Stats
BOSCGY
26Shots on goal20
2.34Expected goals1.81
50Shot attempts49
205v5 shots on goal15
0/3Power play1/5
18Hits21
17Blocked shots14
10Penalty minutes4
17Giveaways13
11Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 2.34 xGCGY 1.81 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:42 | 0:05 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:22 | 4:23 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:52 | 1:52 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:30 | 3:18 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:39 | 3:25 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:32 | 2:42 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:07 | 2:30 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 | 0:00 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:10 | 3:16 |
| A. Steeves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:13 | 1:31 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8:42 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:36 | 0:00 |
| A. Peeke | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:56 | 0:06 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:38 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 26:44 | 2:58 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:47 | 0:06 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 21:54 | 3:10 |
| J. Aspirot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:49 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 20 | 19 | 2 | .950 | 61:53 | OT loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Coleman | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:22 | 4:06 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:38 | 0:22 |
| C. Zary | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:32 | 1:50 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:06 | 5:37 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:48 | 5:38 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:08 | 4:17 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:36 | 2:47 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:06 | 4:57 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:14 | 4:11 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:06 | 0:00 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:53 | 0:49 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:49 | 0:02 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:25 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 27:38 | 4:33 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24:43 | 5:16 |
| Y. Kuznetsov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:59 | 0:03 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:54 | 0:29 |
| H. Brzustewicz | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:35 | 2:35 |
Lines at 5-on-5
BOS
Line 1C. Mittelstadt14:49V. Arvidsson13:37P. Zacha13:35
Line 2D. Pastrnak14:59M. Khusnutdinov13:50F. Minten13:38
Line 3E. Lindholm11:08M. Geekie11:54A. Steeves8:42
Line 4S. Kuraly7:24M. Kastelic7:29M. Eyssimont6:36
Pair 1N. Zadorov17:27C. McAvoy18:12
Pair 2H. Lindholm15:06J. Aspirot15:15
CGY
Line 1N. Kadri14:29Y. Sharangovich13:34J. Farabee13:07
Line 2J. Huberdeau13:07C. Zary12:42M. Frost11:03
Line 3M. Backlund12:42B. Coleman11:12M. Coronato11:09
Line 4J. Beecher7:49A. Klapka8:04R. Lomberg8:47
Pair 1M. Weegar20:13Y. Kuznetsov20:04
Pair 2K. Bahl18:12R. Andersson16:52
Pair 3J. Hanley8:54H. Brzustewicz8:00
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 2.8, CGY 3.0 | BOS 1, CGY 2 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 26.1, CGY 31.3 | BOS 26, CGY 20 |
| Win chance | CGY 54% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.5 | 4 | 1.12 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.2 | 2 | 0.89 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.5 | 4 | 0.60 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.4 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 2.3 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS V. Arvidsson | 2.3 | 4 | 0.53 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.2 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.2 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 2.1 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.1 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 2.0 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS M. Eyssimont | 1.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.9 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.8 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.7 | 3 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.6 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.6 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.6 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.5 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.4 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS S. Kuraly | 1.4 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS A. Steeves | 1.3 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.2 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.2 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.1 | 2 | 0.20 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| CGY H. Brzustewicz | 1.1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Kuznetsov | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 1.0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY J. Beecher | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS J. Aspirot | 0.7 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.