Game Recap: BOS 4, CHI 2, December 4, 2024

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Game Recap

BOS4

FinalWed, Dec 4, 2024Every game that night

CHI2

BOS beat CHI 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.29 expected goals to 1.58. M. Geekie led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Swayman stopped 20 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BOS	1	2	1	4
CHI	1	1	0	2

1st 1:23CHIA. Vlasic0.09 xG
1st 12:17BOSM. Geekie0.27 xG
2nd 2:58BOSB. Marchand0.15 xG
2nd 5:03BOSB. Marchand0.21 xG
2nd 18:23CHIJ. Dickinson0.05 xG
3rd 5:02BOSM. Geekie0.17 xG

Team Stats

BOSCHI

27Shots on goal22

3.29Expected goals1.58

49Shot attempts43

175v5 shots on goal16

0/5Power play0/2

22Hits12

14Blocked shots16

4Penalty minutes8

20Giveaways6

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 3.29 xGCHI 1.58 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS26 on goal, 4 scored

CHI21 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	2	2	3	0	0	0	0	20:20	6:21
B. Marchand	LW	2	0	2	3	0	1	+2	0	18:12	5:32
J. Brazeau	RW	0	2	2	2	3	0	+2	0	13:13	3:21
M. Geekie	C	2	0	2	4	0	0	0	0	12:27	2:28
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:49	4:34
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	18:32	5:20
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	17:18	4:29
P. Zacha	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	16:41	5:03
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:37	0:08
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	12:05	0:00
M. McLaughlin	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:37	0:04
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	11:35	0:09
M. Lohrei	D	0	2	2	0	0	4	+1	0	17:05	3:15
J. Oesterle	D	0	2	2	2	0	2	+2	0	16:05	0:50
C. McAvoy	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	+3	0	23:56	5:19
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	2	21:12	1:30
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	0	20:36	0:06
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:40	1:06

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	22	20	2	.909	60:00	Win
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Dickinson	C	1	0	1	2	2	1	+1	0	18:08	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	16:24	0:00
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	2	14:55	0:00
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	2	19:14	2:33
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-2	0	18:00	2:46
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	16:53	1:15
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	13:33	2:23
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:14	0:00
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	12:00	2:38
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:13	1:20
C. Smith	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:04	1:26
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:25	1:37
C. Murphy	D	0	2	2	2	1	3	+1	2	21:03	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	24:26	2:38
T. Brodie	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:48	0:30
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	19:22	0:00
A. Martinez	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	-4	0	17:47	0:54
N. Allan	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	13:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Mrazek	27	23	4	.852	60:00	Loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTyler Bertuzzi CHI Faces BOS, his team until Apr 20232 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 3.0, CHI 2.5	BOS 4, CHI 2
Total goals	5.4	6
Shots on goal	BOS 28.5, CHI 27.0	BOS 27, CHI 22
Win chance	BOS 58%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	4.1	3	1.12	2	42%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.7	2	0.79	0	23%	0
BOS B. Marchand	2.4	3	0.80	2	28%	2
CHI R. Donato	2.4	3	0.50	0	21%	0
CHI T. Hall	2.2	0	0.57	0	22%	0
BOS P. Zacha	2.1	1	0.70	0	24%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.8	2	0.62	0	24%	0
CHI C. Smith	1.8	0	0.34	0	16%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.7	2	0.52	0	21%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.7	4	0.45	2	18%	2
BOS C. McAvoy	1.7	2	0.54	0	10%	0
BOS J. Brazeau	1.7	2	0.41	2	20%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.7	2	0.55	0	20%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.7	0	0.34	1	16%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.6	1	0.43	1	17%	0
BOS T. Frederic	1.6	3	0.43	0	19%	0
BOS C. Coyle	1.5	1	0.53	0	21%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.4	0	0.33	0	9%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.3	0	0.31	0	11%	0
BOS M. McLaughlin	1.3	0	0.25	0	14%	0
CHI P. Kurashev	1.3	1	0.43	0	14%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.3	2	0.35	1	16%	1
CHI A. Vlasic	1.2	2	0.27	1	4%	1
BOS M. Kastelic	1.2	2	0.28	0	13%	0
CHI A. Martinez	1.2	2	0.26	0	6%	0
BOS C. Koepke	1.1	0	0.28	0	12%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.1	2	0.21	2	6%	0
BOS B. Carlo	1.1	2	0.19	0	5%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.0	0	0.34	2	6%	0
BOS J. Oesterle	1.0	2	0.19	2	3%	0
CHI P. Maroon	1.0	0	0.30	0	10%	0
BOS A. Peeke	0.8	0	0.17	0	3%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	0.8	2	0.16	0	2%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.8	0	0.23	0	12%	0
CHI N. Allan	0.6	0	0.22	0	3%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.6	1	0.23	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.