Game Recap: BOS 5, COL 3, October 16, 2024

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Game Recap

BOS5

FinalWed, Oct 16, 2024Every game that night

COL3

BOS beat COL 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.97 expected goals to 2.79. M. Rantanen led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Koepke had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. J. Korpisalo stopped 22 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BOS	2	2	1	5
COL	1	1	1	3

1st 13:46BOSC. Koepke0.06 xG
1st 15:07COLR. ColtonPP0.12 xG
1st 17:09BOSC. CoylePP0.23 xG
2nd 9:09BOSD. PastrnakPP0.17 xG
2nd 9:22BOSH. Lindholm0.01 xG
2nd 11:15COLC. MakarPP0.11 xG
3rd 4:52COLM. RantanenPP0.12 xG
3rd 17:59BOSJ. BeecherEN0.56 xG

Team Stats

BOSCOL

26Shots on goal25

3.97Expected goals2.79

59Shot attempts52

195v5 shots on goal17

2/4Power play3/3

35Hits35

14Blocked shots15

11Penalty minutes13

15Giveaways20

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 3.97 xGCOL 2.79 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS25 on goal, 5 scored

COL23 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0	22:00	4:06
C. Coyle	C	1	0	1	3	2	1	0	0	19:34	2:30
B. Marchand	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	16:20	2:42
C. Koepke	LW	1	0	1	4	7	0	+3	0	14:00	0:12
J. Beecher	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	+3	0	13:23	0:00
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	19:55	3:58
P. Zacha	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	19:28	3:47
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	3	7	0	0	0	16:39	2:22
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+3	0	16:21	0:55
M. Jones	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	9:22	0:00
M. Poitras	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:23	1:52
R. Tufte	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	6:54	0:00
H. Lindholm	D	1	1	2	1	1	1	+1	0	22:04	2:28
N. Zadorov	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+2	7	18:20	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:00	1:59
A. Peeke	D	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	15:34	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	22:59	3:39
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	4	7	+2	0	20:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Korpisalo	25	22	3	.880	60:00	Win
J. Swayman	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rantanen	RW	1	2	3	4	1	0	-2	4	21:45	1:41
N. MacKinnon	C	0	2	2	1	3	2	-2	0	23:48	1:41
R. Colton	C	1	0	1	4	5	2	-1	0	19:36	1:41
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	21:33	1:41
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	18:46	0:00
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:45	0:00
N. Kovalenko	RW	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	13:03	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:46	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	2	12:43	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	11:10	0:00
I. Ivan	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	6:29	0:00
M. Stienburg	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	5	4:36	0:00
C. Makar	D	1	2	3	2	1	0	-2	0	27:28	1:41
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	23:34	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	3	5	1	0	0	19:18	0:00
O. Kylington	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	2	17:35	0:00
C. de Haan	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	15:09	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	13:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Georgiev	25	21	4	.840	57:43	Loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCasey Mittelstadt BOS Faces COL, his team until Mar 20253 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 3.0, COL 3.3	BOS 5, COL 3
Total goals	6.3	8
Shots on goal	BOS 26.7, COL 33.9	BOS 26, COL 25
Win chance	COL 57%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.9	1	1.49	2	41%	0
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.8	5	1.15	1	41%	1
COL M. Rantanen	3.4	4	1.21	3	39%	1
COL C. Makar	2.7	2	1.03	3	22%	1
COL M. Wood	2.2	1	0.33	0	15%	0
BOS B. Marchand	2.2	1	0.83	1	27%	0
COL R. Colton	2.1	4	0.52	1	21%	1
COL C. Mittelstadt	2.0	3	0.74	0	21%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	2.0	1	0.71	0	25%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.8	3	0.72	0	21%	0
COL J. Manson	1.7	3	0.35	0	9%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.6	1	0.63	0	11%	0
BOS C. Coyle	1.5	3	0.58	1	20%	1
COL L. O'Connor	1.5	0	0.35	0	13%	0
COL O. Kylington	1.5	0	0.31	0	9%	0
BOS T. Frederic	1.4	3	0.42	0	18%	0
BOS M. Jones	1.3	1	0.29	0	11%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.3	1	0.39	2	6%	1
COL P. Kelly	1.3	1	0.23	0	10%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.3	0	0.34	1	10%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.2	2	0.32	0	7%	0
COL S. Girard	1.2	0	0.36	0	6%	0
COL N. Kovalenko	1.2	2	0.20	0	11%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.1	1	0.28	0	12%	0
BOS M. Poitras	1.0	0	0.40	0	12%	0
BOS B. Carlo	1.0	0	0.22	0	6%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.9	1	0.29	1	13%	1
BOS M. Lohrei	0.9	1	0.34	1	7%	0
COL C. Haan	0.9	2	0.16	0	4%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.9	0	0.16	0	7%	0
BOS R. Tufte	0.8	0	0.22	0	11%	0
BOS C. Koepke	0.8	4	0.25	1	8%	1
BOS A. Peeke	0.8	0	0.17	1	4%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.