Game Recap: BOS 1, COL 4, October 18, 2025

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Game Recap

BOS1

FinalSat, Oct 18, 2025Every game that night

COL4

COL beat BOS 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.33 expected goals to 1.11. COL outshot BOS 38 to 14. A. Lehkonen led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). N. MacKinnon had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 4.1. S. Wedgewood stopped 13 of 14.

Team Stats

BOSCOL

14Shots on goal38

1.11Expected goals3.33

39Shot attempts86

125v5 shots on goal29

0/2Power play0/5

24Hits12

29Blocked shots17

10Penalty minutes4

18Giveaways12

1Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 1.11 xGCOL 3.33 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS14 on goal, 1 scored

COL36 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Beecher	C	1	0	1	3	1	2	0	0	13:28	0:00
P. Zacha	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	16:25	2:26
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	0	15:44	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	15:32	0:00
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	14:27	1:52
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	14:25	2:33
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	14:18	2:08
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:14	0:00
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	13:53	2:32
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	1	3	3	0	4	13:21	0:00
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	13:13	1:35
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	12:36	1:27
C. McAvoy	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	-1	2	20:45	2:04
M. Lohrei	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	15:56	1:27
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	0	5	3	-1	2	21:40	0:00
H. Lindholm	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-2	2	20:44	1:56
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	19:52	0:00
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	0	4	5	-1	0	19:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	37	34	3	.919	59:44	Loss
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	3	3	3	0	1	+3	0	17:58	3:18
N. MacKinnon	C	2	0	2	8	0	0	+3	2	23:17	9:07
M. Necas	C	1	0	1	5	1	0	+3	0	21:24	7:57
G. Landeskog	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	14:33	3:35
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	19:00	6:38
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:51	6:29
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	2	2	2	+1	0	15:41	2:01
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	14:16	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	13:14	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	12:26	0:00
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	10:37	0:43
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	8:11	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	+1	0	19:32	1:25
J. Manson	D	1	0	1	3	0	1	+2	2	16:04	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	+2	0	23:30	8:12
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+2	0	18:14	0:35
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:11	0:00
I. Solovyov	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	15:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	14	13	1	.929	59:33	Win
T. Miner	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BOS

Line 1S. Kuraly11:53M. Kastelic11:41J. Beecher10:49

Line 2M. Geekie11:52C. Mittelstadt11:22M. Eyssimont10:53

Line 3E. Lindholm10:28D. Pastrnak11:21P. Zacha10:54

Line 4T. Jeannot10:52V. Arvidsson11:27F. Minten11:09

Pair 1N. Zadorov17:17H. Jokiharju16:06

Pair 2H. Lindholm14:20A. Peeke15:46

Pair 3C. McAvoy14:00M. Lohrei14:15

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon13:27M. Necas13:01A. Lehkonen13:14

Line 2J. Drury12:32R. Colton11:59V. Olofsson9:03

Line 3G. Landeskog10:58V. Nichushkin12:28B. Nelson10:46

Line 4P. Kelly10:28G. Brindley9:54Z. Bardakov8:11

Pair 1D. Toews16:03C. Makar12:53

Pair 2I. Solovyov14:52S. Malinski16:15

Pair 3B. Burns15:23J. Manson14:58

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCasey Mittelstadt BOS Faces COL, his team until Mar 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 2.7, COL 3.6	BOS 1, COL 4
Total goals	6.3	5
Shots on goal	BOS 23.5, COL 32.0	BOS 14, COL 38
Win chance	COL 65%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.1	8	1.46	2	39%	2
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.6	0	1.13	0	40%	0
COL C. Makar	2.9	3	1.12	0	24%	0
COL M. Necas	2.6	5	0.97	1	28%	1
COL A. Lehkonen	2.4	3	0.80	3	32%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.3	0	0.82	0	32%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.3	2	0.71	0	31%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.1	1	0.78	1	28%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	2.0	0	0.59	0	22%	0
COL B. Burns	2.0	3	0.43	1	9%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.9	0	0.69	0	27%	0
BOS V. Arvidsson	1.9	4	0.41	0	17%	0
COL V. Olofsson	1.9	1	0.48	0	21%	0
BOS M. Eyssimont	1.8	1	0.24	0	11%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.7	1	0.51	1	10%	0
COL R. Colton	1.7	0	0.40	0	17%	0
COL D. Toews	1.6	2	0.60	0	11%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.5	1	0.26	0	6%	0
COL J. Manson	1.5	3	0.33	1	7%	1
BOS P. Zacha	1.4	1	0.59	0	18%	0
COL J. Drury	1.4	3	0.31	0	11%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.2	0	0.24	0	11%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.2	2	0.22	0	10%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.1	0	0.27	0	8%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.1	0	0.44	0	15%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.1	0	0.22	0	11%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.1	1	0.20	0	12%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.0	1	0.30	1	5%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.0	0	0.25	0	5%	0
COL I. Solovyov	1.0	0	0.20	0	3%	0
BOS A. Peeke	0.9	0	0.17	0	3%	0
COL G. Brindley	0.9	0	0.22	0	11%	0
BOS H. Jokiharju	0.9	0	0.20	0	4%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	0.9	2	0.21	0	11%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.6	3	0.15	1	8%	1

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.