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Game Recap
BOS2
DET1
BOS beat DET 2-1, with the chances close: 2.17 expected goals to 1.98. BOS outshot DET 29 to 20. T. Frederic had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. J. Swayman stopped 19 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| DET | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 8:33BOSJ. BrazeauPP0.13 xG
- 1st 19:02DETL. Raymond0.14 xG
- 3rd 11:30BOSB. Marchand0.11 xG
Team Stats
BOSDET
29Shots on goal20
2.17Expected goals1.98
51Shot attempts51
255v5 shots on goal14
1/2Power play0/4
23Hits9
16Blocked shots7
8Penalty minutes4
15Giveaways25
6Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 2.17 xGDET 1.98 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:19 | 2:12 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:30 | 1:48 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:53 | 1:56 |
| T. Johnson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11:18 | 2:04 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:34 | 1:41 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:13 | 1:47 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:56 | 1:36 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:12 | 1:56 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:25 | 0:00 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:54 | 0:08 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:11 | 0:05 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:52 | 0:10 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:18 | 2:07 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:07 | 0:00 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 26:16 | 1:46 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:39 | 0:09 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:10 | 0:00 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 11:51 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 20 | 19 | 1 | .950 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:09 | 4:47 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:15 | 4:47 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:03 | 3:57 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:40 | 4:47 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 | 4:47 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:51 | 2:35 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:00 | 2:33 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:20 | 1:22 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:00 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:41 | 1:13 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:26 | 0:00 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:22 | 4:47 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:36 | 0:02 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:26 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:49 | 2:35 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:21 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 3.1, DET 2.8 | BOS 2, DET 1 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 28.7, DET 28.3 | BOS 29, DET 20 |
| Win chance | BOS 54% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 4.1 | 2 | 1.13 | 1 | 42% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.8 | 1 | 0.86 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.6 | 3 | 0.74 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.5 | 1 | 0.83 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.5 | 2 | 0.73 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.0 | 2 | 0.79 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 2.0 | 4 | 0.68 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.9 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.8 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.8 | 4 | 0.60 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.7 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS J. Brazeau | 1.7 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.6 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.6 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.6 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BOS T. Frederic | 1.5 | 5 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.5 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS T. Johnson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.4 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.2 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET J. Petry | 1.1 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.1 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.8 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.