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Game Recap
BOS1
DET2
DET beat BOS 2-1, with the chances close: 2.14 expected goals to 1.99. N. Zadorov had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. C. Talbot stopped 20 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| DET | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 5:37DETM. Kasper0.09 xG
- 2nd 0:53DETL. RaymondPP0.14 xG
- 2nd 2:12BOSM. GeekiePP0.09 xG
Team Stats
BOSDET
21Shots on goal22
1.99Expected goals2.14
44Shot attempts39
175v5 shots on goal19
1/1Power play1/3
39Hits38
9Blocked shots7
16Penalty minutes22
17Giveaways16
6Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 1.99 xGDET 2.14 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Geekie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:03 | 0:39 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:33 | 0:39 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:41 | 0:00 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:55 | 0:39 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:43 | 0:39 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:27 | 0:00 |
| V. Lettieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:06 | 0:00 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| F. Lysell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:09 | 0:00 |
| P. Brown | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9:11 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:44 | 0:39 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23:09 | 0:00 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:54 | 0:00 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 21:15 | 0:00 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:59 | 0:00 |
| I. Mitchell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:38 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 22 | 20 | 2 | .909 | 57:54 | Loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:51 | 4:05 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:41 | 4:07 |
| M. Kasper | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:06 | 1:15 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:43 | 4:05 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 19:39 | 4:02 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:49 | 0:49 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 | 1:18 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:29 | 1:05 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:03 | 0:18 |
| C. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:24 | 0:02 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:04 | 0:03 |
| A. Watson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 3:06 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 27:16 | 3:55 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:22 | 0:07 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:46 | 1:24 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:20 | 0:00 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:11 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 3.0, DET 3.4 | BOS 1, DET 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 25.3, DET 30.4 | BOS 21, DET 22 |
| Win chance | DET 56% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.6 | 3 | 1.19 | 1 | 42% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 3.2 | 1 | 1.00 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.0 | 4 | 0.86 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.7 | 1 | 0.90 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.2 | 4 | 0.91 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.9 | 1 | 0.64 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.9 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.8 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.8 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.7 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| DET C. Smith | 1.5 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.5 | 0 | 0.67 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BOS V. Lettieri | 1.4 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.4 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.4 | 4 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.3 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.3 | 3 | 0.61 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.3 | 3 | 0.43 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BOS H. Jokiharju | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET J. Petry | 0.9 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS J. Lauko | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS P. Brown | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS I. Mitchell | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET A. Watson | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.7 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.6 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.6 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.