Game Recap: BOS 2, EDM 3 (OT), December 19, 2024

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Game Recap

BOS2

Final/OTThu, Dec 19, 2024Every game that night

EDM3

EDM beat BOS 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.94 expected goals to 2.98. L. Draisaitl led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). L. Draisaitl had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. S. Skinner stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
BOS	2	0	0	0	2
EDM	0	1	1	1	3

1st 1:07BOSE. Lindholm0.02 xG
1st 17:35BOSM. Kastelic0.08 xG
2nd 11:17EDMZ. Hyman0.02 xG
3rd 17:39EDMC. McDavid0.10 xG
OT 1:04EDMM. Ekholm0.58 xG

Team Stats

BOSEDM

26Shots on goal26

2.98Expected goals2.94

53Shot attempts54

235v5 shots on goal21

0/2Power play0/2

30Hits25

14Blocked shots10

4Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways25

5Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 2.98 xGEDM 2.94 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS25 on goal, 2 scored

EDM25 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Marchand	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	19:00	1:57
E. Lindholm	C	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	0	18:32	2:08
J. Beecher	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	11:23	0:00
M. Kastelic	C	1	0	1	4	2	0	-1	0	8:48	0:00
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	22:06	2:41
P. Zacha	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	19:15	2:33
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	18:17	1:30
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	16:50	0:17
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:15	0:46
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:30	1:08
O. Wahlstrom	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	8:51	0:30
M. McLaughlin	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:56	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	1	1	2	3	1	-1	0	24:36	3:06
B. Carlo	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+2	0	19:36	0:00
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	1	6	1	-2	2	21:04	0:22
J. Oesterle	D	0	0	0	0	3	4	+2	0	19:14	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	2	17:41	0:27
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	16:18	0:20

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	26	23	3	.885	61:04	OT loss
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	0	3	3	6	1	0	+2	0	24:43	3:13
Z. Hyman	LW	1	1	2	2	3	0	+2	0	22:05	3:13
C. McDavid	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+2	2	24:47	3:13
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	16:45	3:13
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:54	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	14:05	0:00
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	12:35	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:15	0:20
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	11:56	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	10:35	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	8:32	0:20
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	8:06	0:20
M. Ekholm	D	1	0	1	3	1	1	+2	0	22:28	0:20
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	+1	0	25:52	3:13
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	21:04	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	20:38	0:20
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	14:38	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	13:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	26	24	2	.923	61:03	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTrent Frederic EDM Faces BOS, his team until Feb 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 2.8, EDM 3.2	BOS 2, EDM 3
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	BOS 25.8, EDM 31.2	BOS 26, EDM 26
Win chance	EDM 58%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.7	5	1.03	0	39%	0
EDM C. McDavid	3.2	2	1.57	1	37%	1
EDM Z. Hyman	2.9	2	0.75	2	35%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.6	6	1.27	3	40%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.5	2	0.61	0	21%	0
BOS B. Marchand	2.3	3	0.73	1	27%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.3	3	0.78	0	14%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.2	1	0.40	0	9%	0
EDM J. Skinner	2.0	1	0.50	0	22%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.9	0	0.77	1	22%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.9	3	0.44	1	10%	1
BOS P. Zacha	1.9	1	0.62	0	21%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.7	0	0.46	0	18%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.5	0	0.49	0	21%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.5	2	0.48	1	10%	0
BOS T. Frederic	1.5	0	0.40	0	18%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.5	3	0.49	1	20%	1
EDM B. Kulak	1.5	0	0.31	0	6%	0
BOS J. Brazeau	1.4	1	0.38	0	17%	0
BOS C. Coyle	1.3	0	0.46	0	19%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.3	0	0.31	0	10%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.3	1	0.29	0	12%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.2	1	0.29	0	10%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.2	2	0.32	0	12%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.2	4	0.25	1	11%	1
BOS O. Wahlstrom	1.2	2	0.22	0	11%	0
BOS M. McLaughlin	1.2	0	0.25	0	15%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.0	1	0.31	0	15%	0
BOS J. Oesterle	1.0	0	0.20	0	3%	0
BOS B. Carlo	0.9	0	0.16	1	5%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.9	0	0.34	0	11%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	0.8	1	0.34	0	6%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.8	2	0.15	0	4%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.8	0	0.18	0	3%	0
BOS A. Peeke	0.8	1	0.16	0	3%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.7	2	0.19	1	10%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.