Game Recap: BOS 4, FLA 6, October 8, 2024

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Game Recap

BOS4

FinalTue, Oct 8, 2024Every game that night

FLA6

FLA beat BOS 6-4, and the chances backed it up: 4.70 expected goals to 3.38. S. Bennett led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Lundell had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. S. Bobrovsky stopped 24 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BOS	1	1	2	4
FLA	4	1	1	6

1st 6:27FLAS. Bennett0.06 xG
1st 7:31FLAE. Luostarinen0.36 xG
1st 15:33BOSP. ZachaSH0.04 xG
1st 18:34FLAS. ReinhartSH0.10 xG
1st 19:34FLAS. Bennett0.02 xG
2nd 9:12FLAJ. Gadjovich0.19 xG
2nd 12:32BOSC. McAvoy0.46 xG
3rd 6:26FLAE. Rodrigues0.06 xG
3rd 16:51BOST. Frederic0.13 xG
3rd 18:15BOSD. PastrnakPP0.07 xG

Team Stats

BOSFLA

28Shots on goal35

3.38Expected goals4.70

52Shot attempts75

155v5 shots on goal27

1/4Power play0/6

27Hits26

21Blocked shots8

19Penalty minutes15

17Giveaways8

8Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 3.38 xGFLA 4.70 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS27 on goal, 4 scored

FLA35 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Zacha	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	20:09	4:32
D. Pastrnak	RW	1	0	1	5	0	0	-2	0	19:31	4:37
E. Lindholm	C	0	1	1	2	1	3	0	0	19:20	4:31
J. Beecher	C	0	1	1	3	2	3	0	0	15:18	0:04
T. Frederic	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	-2	4	14:00	1:43
J. Brazeau	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	-2	0	11:09	2:33
B. Marchand	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	17:02	4:30
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	16:56	2:29
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	12:29	2:19
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	1	6	1	0	5	11:17	0:06
M. Jones	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	4	9:42	0:00
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	2	8:25	0:07
C. McAvoy	D	1	1	2	2	3	1	+1	0	21:54	4:27
H. Lindholm	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	21:30	1:00
A. Peeke	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	-1	0	17:46	0:18
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-2	0	19:03	0:00
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	1	6	1	-1	4	18:02	0:02
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-3	0	16:16	2:42

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Korpisalo	35	29	6	.829	58:11	Loss
J. Swayman	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Reinhart	C	1	1	2	4	1	0	+1	0	20:21	7:49
S. Bennett	C	2	0	2	4	4	2	+3	2	16:15	4:19
E. Rodrigues	C	1	1	2	2	1	1	+2	0	15:36	4:05
A. Barkov	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	20:11	7:39
A. Lundell	C	0	1	1	5	2	1	0	2	16:59	4:04
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+2	2	16:42	7:46
E. Luostarinen	C	1	0	1	4	4	0	0	0	14:25	0:00
A. Greer	LW	0	1	1	1	5	0	+1	7	12:58	0:06
J. Boqvist	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	11:34	0:06
J. Gadjovich	LW	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	7:57	0:06
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	0	17:19	7:47
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:08	0:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	26:36	6:19
U. Balinskis	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	2	15:20	4:43
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+3	0	25:41	3:13
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	20:58	0:06
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	19:10	0:06
A. Boqvist	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	4:38	1:46

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	28	24	4	.857	60:00	Win
C. Driedger	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBrad Marchand FLA Faces BOS, his team until Mar 20252 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 2.5, FLA 2.9	BOS 4, FLA 6
Total goals	5.4	10
Shots on goal	BOS 24.3, FLA 32.8	BOS 28, FLA 35
Win chance	FLA 57%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	4.0	5	1.00	1	39%	1
FLA M. Tkachuk	3.4	3	0.92	1	27%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	3.3	4	0.80	0	31%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	3.2	4	0.86	2	36%	1
FLA A. Barkov	2.8	1	0.92	1	27%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.7	4	0.58	2	23%	2
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.3	2	0.46	2	16%	1
FLA G. Forsling	2.1	2	0.45	0	12%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	2.1	2	0.59	1	24%	0
BOS B. Marchand	2.1	2	0.67	0	24%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.9	2	0.39	1	11%	0
FLA A. Lundell	1.9	5	0.45	1	14%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.7	2	0.55	2	9%	1
BOS P. Zacha	1.7	3	0.59	1	19%	1
BOS C. Coyle	1.7	0	0.54	0	20%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.7	1	0.44	0	18%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.6	0	0.18	0	10%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.5	1	0.30	0	9%	0
BOS M. Jones	1.5	0	0.26	0	11%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.4	4	0.34	1	13%	1
BOS T. Frederic	1.4	2	0.36	1	16%	1
BOS J. Brazeau	1.4	0	0.28	1	14%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.4	2	0.35	1	6%	0
FLA A. Boqvist	1.2	2	0.30	0	8%	0
BOS B. Carlo	1.1	0	0.18	0	5%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.1	1	0.19	1	9%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.0	0	0.25	1	11%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.0	2	0.26	0	6%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.0	1	0.16	0	9%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.0	0	0.15	0	4%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	0.9	0	0.13	1	4%	0
BOS A. Peeke	0.8	1	0.14	1	3%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	0.8	0	0.17	0	3%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.8	3	0.17	1	10%	0
FLA J. Gadjovich	0.8	1	0.11	1	5%	1
BOS C. Koepke	0.6	1	0.10	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.