Game Recap: BOS 4, FLA 5 (SO), February 4, 2026

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Game Recap

BOS4

Final/SOWed, Feb 4, 2026Every game that night

FLA5

FLA beat BOS 5-4 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.64 expected goals to 3.88. A. Lundell led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Eyssimont had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. S. Bobrovsky stopped 25 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
BOS	2	0	2	0	4
FLA	1	3	0	1	5

1st 4:22FLAE. Luostarinen0.16 xG
1st 7:18BOSM. Eyssimont0.08 xG
1st 12:43BOSM. Eyssimont0.23 xG
2nd 0:30FLAU. BalinskisPP0.11 xG
2nd 2:47FLAM. TkachukPP0.02 xG
2nd 18:33FLAA. LundellSH0.09 xG
3rd 7:52BOSM. Kastelic0.11 xG
3rd 10:30BOSC. MittelstadtPP0.51 xG

Team Stats

BOSFLA

29Shots on goal26

3.88Expected goals3.64

68Shot attempts60

185v5 shots on goal13

1/7Power play2/3

24Hits26

12Blocked shots20

15Penalty minutes25

21Giveaways16

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 3.88 xGFLA 3.64 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS29 on goal, 4 scored

FLA26 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Eyssimont	C	2	0	2	4	1	0	+2	2	12:18	3:46
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	1	1	2	1	1	-2	0	27:52	9:39
M. Geekie	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	-2	0	22:54	8:39
C. Mittelstadt	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	19:55	6:17
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	0	16:49	0:53
M. Kastelic	C	1	0	1	1	4	0	+1	0	12:36	0:00
A. Steeves	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	10:56	2:20
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	19:53	5:35
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	18:15	7:00
M. Poitras	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	13:05	1:25
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	+1	5	12:14	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+2	0	9:22	0:00
H. Lindholm	D	0	2	2	2	0	0	+2	0	25:01	5:12
C. McAvoy	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	-1	0	22:05	5:58
A. Peeke	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	+1	0	19:05	0:00
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	0	5	1	+1	2	19:56	0:01
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	+1	0	15:59	3:25
J. Aspirot	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	13:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Korpisalo	26	22	4	.846	65:00	OT loss
J. Swayman	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Lundell	C	1	2	3	4	1	2	+1	0	24:18	2:14
M. Tkachuk	LW	1	1	2	4	1	0	+1	0	18:04	2:14
S. Reinhart	C	0	1	1	3	0	2	+1	2	22:58	1:44
E. Luostarinen	C	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	6	17:10	0:41
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	1	3	2	+1	0	22:58	2:14
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	2	17:47	0:41
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	5	1	1	-3	2	16:51	1:11
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	5	12:49	0:00
B. Marchand	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	10:55	0:41
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:47	0:00
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	7:17	0:00
S. Vilmanis	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2:35	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	1	1	2	2	4	1	0	0	21:26	2:14
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	2	30:48	0:41
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	0	2	23:40	0:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	22:06	0:00
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	14:55	0:00
T. Bjornfot	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	29	25	4	.862	65:00	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak15:21M. Geekie13:03M. Khusnutdinov13:05

Line 2V. Arvidsson11:15C. Mittelstadt11:31F. Minten11:10

Line 3T. Jeannot11:31M. Kastelic10:24M. Poitras11:40

Line 4M. Eyssimont8:32A. Steeves8:36S. Kuraly8:37

Pair 1N. Zadorov16:56A. Peeke18:04

Pair 2H. Lindholm16:23M. Lohrei12:20

Pair 3C. McAvoy12:57J. Aspirot13:50

FLA

Line 1S. Bennett15:48M. Tkachuk13:56A. Greer11:09

Line 2S. Reinhart15:19A. Lundell15:18E. Luostarinen13:18

Line 3B. Marchand10:14E. Rodrigues9:03C. Verhaeghe15:35

Line 4C. Schwindt6:02M. Samoskevich7:17S. Vilmanis2:35

Pair 1G. Forsling19:32A. Ekblad15:52

Pair 2U. Balinskis15:52N. Mikkola16:20

Pair 3J. Petry13:38T. Bjornfot8:27

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBrad Marchand FLA Faces BOS, his team until Mar 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 2.9, FLA 3.4	BOS 4, FLA 5
Total goals	6.3	9
Shots on goal	BOS 24.1, FLA 31.3	BOS 29, FLA 26
Win chance	FLA 57%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.3	2	1.25	1	39%	0
FLA M. Tkachuk	3.0	4	1.18	2	34%	1
FLA S. Reinhart	2.9	3	1.11	1	41%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.7	1	0.78	0	29%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.7	3	0.87	0	30%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.6	5	0.62	0	21%	0
FLA B. Marchand	2.5	0	0.87	0	30%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.3	4	0.66	3	21%	1
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.1	1	0.51	0	20%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.9	2	0.74	1	29%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.7	3	0.32	0	12%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.7	2	0.46	2	12%	1
BOS C. McAvoy	1.7	0	0.67	1	10%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.6	0	0.47	0	11%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.5	2	0.38	2	7%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.5	1	0.47	1	14%	1
FLA A. Ekblad	1.4	0	0.45	0	8%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.4	0	0.34	0	14%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.3	3	0.49	0	19%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.2	0	0.31	0	7%	0
BOS M. Eyssimont	1.2	4	0.18	2	8%	2
BOS S. Kuraly	1.1	1	0.26	0	10%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.1	1	0.26	1	12%	1
FLA N. Mikkola	1.0	0	0.23	0	5%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.0	3	0.47	1	15%	1
FLA S. Vilmanis	1.0	0	0.33	0	13%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.0	2	0.35	0	6%	0
BOS M. Poitras	1.0	1	0.36	0	11%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	0.9	1	0.27	0	11%	0
BOS A. Peeke	0.9	0	0.19	1	4%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.9	3	0.38	1	15%	0
BOS A. Steeves	0.9	3	0.29	1	13%	0
FLA C. Schwindt	0.8	0	0.20	0	8%	0
FLA J. Petry	0.8	0	0.20	0	3%	0
BOS J. Aspirot	0.7	0	0.22	0	5%	0
FLA T. Bjornfot	0.6	0	0.10	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.