Game Recap: BOS 4, LAK 1, October 17, 2026

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Game Recap

BOS4

FinalSat, Oct 17, 2026Every game that night

LAK1

BOS beat LAK 4-1, with the chances close: 3.23 expected goals to 2.62. D. Pastrnak led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Edmundson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Swayman stopped 25 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BOS	0	1	3	4
LAK	1	0	0	1

1st 0:31LAKA. Laferriere0.29 xG
2nd 2:43BOSD. Pastrnak0.05 xG
3rd 13:36BOSM. Khusnutdinov0.49 xG
3rd 18:02BOSE. LindholmEN0.48 xG
3rd 19:42BOSJ. PeterkaEN0.60 xG

Team Stats

BOSLAK

28Shots on goal26

3.23Expected goals2.62

61Shot attempts61

225v5 shots on goal19

0/2Power play0/2

25Hits25

19Blocked shots22

11Penalty minutes21

24Giveaways11

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 3.23 xGLAK 2.62 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS28 on goal, 4 scored

LAK26 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	1	1	2	3	1	0	+2	0	20:57	3:08
M. Khusnutdinov	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	11:07	0:00
F. Minten	C	0	1	1	2	2	3	+2	0	20:30	2:44
J. Peterka	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	18:01	1:16
M. Geekie	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	17:47	2:39
E. Lindholm	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	16:45	2:27
M. Poitras	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	10:29	0:40
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	14:19	0:00
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:53	1:22
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	5	11:22	0:00
J. Hagens	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	11:17	1:29
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	11:05	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	1	1	2	0	4	+3	0	25:55	2:51
H. Lindholm	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+3	2	20:28	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	0	0	18:24	0:16
J. Aspirot	D	0	0	0	0	5	3	0	0	17:58	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	2	16:55	0:00
F. Brunet	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	16:48	1:08

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	26	25	1	.962	60:00	Win
M. DiPietro	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Kempe	RW	0	1	1	1	3	0	-2	0	21:31	3:07
A. Laferriere	RW	1	0	1	2	0	2	-2	0	21:04	3:10
A. Panarin	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	24:19	3:37
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	21:55	3:07
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	16:49	0:53
S. Laughton	C	0	0	0	2	4	2	-1	0	16:06	0:00
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	10	15:08	0:53
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	15:04	0:00
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	12:30	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	0	0	4	-2	0	10:14	0:50
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	5	7:41	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	-2	4	21:25	3:05
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	19:53	0:23
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	5	1	4	0	0	18:40	0:00
E. Gustafsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:21	0:55
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	3	3	2	-1	0	13:01	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	11:25	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	26	24	2	.923	57:38	Loss
D. Kuemper	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak17:16F. Minten17:09M. Geekie15:08

Line 2E. Lindholm11:05C. Mittelstadt12:31J. Hagens9:48

Line 3S. Kuraly11:22T. Jeannot10:13M. Kastelic8:48

Line 4M. Khusnutdinov8:29M. Poitras9:49J. Peterka16:35

Pair 1H. Lindholm18:19C. McAvoy19:48

Pair 2M. Lohrei16:08F. Brunet15:40

Pair 3W. Borgen14:37J. Aspirot14:30

LAK

Line 1T. Moore14:50Q. Byfield15:13A. Panarin18:20

Line 2A. Kempe15:47A. Laferriere15:21S. Laughton14:40

Line 3E. Haula12:34J. Armia13:19

Line 4A. Lee11:21S. Helenius7:41C. Perry9:04

Pair 1D. Doughty17:39J. Edmundson16:32

Pair 2E. Gustafsson16:30B. Clarke16:43

Pair 3B. Dumoulin11:11M. Anderson9:50

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

7 of 15 overs hit (47%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.5	+125	-138	3	Under
LAK A. Kempe	2.5	-140	+120	1	Under
LAK A. Laferriere	2.5	-105	-115	2	Under
LAK A. Panarin	2.5	-128	+105	3	Over
LAK Q. Byfield	2.5	+130	-150	1	Under
LAK T. Moore	2.5	+115	-150	3	Over
LAK B. Clarke	1.5	-170	+142	0	Under
BOS C. McAvoy	1.5	-122	-105	2	Over
LAK C. Perry	1.5	+110	-140	0	Under
LAK E. Haula	1.5	-140	+110	1	Under
BOS E. Lindholm	1.5	-110	-115	3	Over
BOS F. Minten	1.5	+110	-120	2	Over
BOS J. Hagens	1.5	-110	-130	2	Over
BOS J. Peterka	1.5	-120	+104	2	Over
BOS M. Geekie	1.5	-155	+130	1	Under

5 of 32 overs hit (16%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
LAK A. Kempe	0.5	+160	-210	0	Under
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	+230	-290	1	Over
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	+180	-240	0	Under
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+600	-1200	0	Under
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.5	+1900	-3500	0	Under
BOS C. McAvoy	0.5	+575	-1200	0	Under
BOS C. Mittelstadt	0.5	+500	-1100	0	Under
LAK C. Perry	0.5	+400	-550	0	Under
LAK D. Doughty	0.5	+850	-2000	0	Under
BOS D. Pastrnak	0.5	+170	-200	1	Over
LAK E. Gustafsson	0.5	+1300	-2800	0	Under
LAK E. Haula	0.5	+410	-650	0	Under
BOS E. Lindholm	0.5	+340	-450	1	Over
BOS F. Brunet	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
BOS F. Minten	0.5	+425	-600	0	Under
BOS H. Lindholm	0.5	+1300	-2500	0	Under
LAK J. Armia	0.5	+550	-1200	0	Under
LAK J. Edmundson	0.5	+2200	-2800	0	Under
BOS J. Hagens	0.5	+500	-750	0	Under
BOS J. Peterka	0.5	+350	-440	1	Over
LAK M. Anderson	0.5	+2000	-3500	0	Under
BOS M. Geekie	0.5	+235	-300	0	Under
BOS M. Kastelic	0.5	+850	-1400	0	Under
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.5	+650	-900	1	Over
BOS M. Lohrei	0.5	+1200	-4000	0	Under
BOS M. Poitras	0.5	+800	-1200	0	Under
LAK Q. Byfield	0.5	+220	-310	0	Under
LAK S. Helenius	0.5	+900	-1000	0	Under
LAK S. Laughton	0.5	+550	-750	0	Under
BOS T. Jeannot	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
LAK T. Moore	0.5	+340	-450	0	Under
BOS W. Borgen	0.5	+2500	-10000	0	Under

7 of 20 overs hit (35%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
LAK A. Kempe	0.5	+130	-155	1	Over
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	+182	-220	0	Under
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	-125	+100	0	Under
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+125	-165	1	Over
BOS C. McAvoy	0.5	+135	-155	1	Over
BOS C. Mittelstadt	0.5	+270	-350	0	Under
LAK C. Perry	0.5	+300	-550	0	Under
LAK D. Doughty	0.5	+195	-275	0	Under
BOS D. Pastrnak	0.5	+105	-125	1	Over
LAK E. Gustafsson	0.5	+225	-375	0	Under
LAK E. Haula	0.5	+235	-330	0	Under
BOS E. Lindholm	0.5	+215	-295	0	Under
BOS F. Minten	0.5	+295	-425	1	Over
BOS H. Lindholm	0.5	+265	-350	0	Under
BOS J. Hagens	0.5	+320	-425	0	Under
BOS J. Peterka	0.5	+240	-300	0	Under
BOS M. Geekie	0.5	+210	-250	1	Over
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.5	+450	-700	1	Over
LAK Q. Byfield	0.5	+164	-175	0	Under
LAK T. Moore	0.5	+260	-370	0	Under

10 of 20 overs hit (50%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
LAK A. Kempe	0.5	-160	+145	1	Over
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	-115	+100	1	Over
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	-250	+180	0	Under
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+105	-125	1	Over
BOS C. McAvoy	0.5	-105	-115	1	Over
BOS C. Mittelstadt	0.5	+160	-180	0	Under
LAK C. Perry	0.5	+170	-230	0	Under
LAK D. Doughty	0.5	+155	-210	0	Under
BOS D. Pastrnak	0.5	-190	+190	2	Over
LAK E. Gustafsson	0.5	+190	-260	0	Under
LAK E. Haula	0.5	+140	-175	0	Under
BOS E. Lindholm	0.5	+115	-145	1	Over
BOS F. Minten	0.5	+165	-190	1	Over
BOS H. Lindholm	0.5	+210	-250	0	Under
BOS J. Hagens	0.5	+180	-230	0	Under
BOS J. Peterka	0.5	+130	-150	1	Over
BOS M. Geekie	0.5	-105	-120	1	Over
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.5	+260	-370	2	Over
LAK Q. Byfield	0.5	-130	+130	0	Under
LAK T. Moore	0.5	+135	-150	0	Under

0 of 19 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
LAK A. Kempe	0.5	+200	-280	Under
LAK A. Laferriere	0.5	+380	-525	Under
LAK A. Panarin	0.5	+165	-200	Under
LAK B. Clarke	0.5	+210	-350	Under
BOS C. McAvoy	0.5	+270	-375	Under
BOS C. Mittelstadt	0.5	+450	-1200	Under
LAK C. Perry	0.5	+300	-600	Under
LAK D. Doughty	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
BOS D. Pastrnak	0.5	+210	-250	Under
LAK E. Gustafsson	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
LAK E. Haula	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
BOS E. Lindholm	0.5	+380	-550	Under
BOS F. Brunet	0.5	+475	-1400	Under
BOS F. Minten	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
BOS J. Hagens	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
BOS J. Peterka	0.5	+400	-1100	Under
BOS M. Geekie	0.5	+300	-450	Under
LAK Q. Byfield	0.5	+250	-350	Under
LAK T. Moore	0.5	+500	-1600	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
BOS J. Swayman	26.5	+100	-120	25	Under
LAK A. Forsberg	22.5	+100	-104	24	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
BOS C. McAvoy	2.5	+120	-170	4	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTanner Jeannot BOS Faces LAK, his team until Mar 20252 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 2.8, LAK 3.0	BOS 4, LAK 1
Total goals	5.7	5
Shots on goal	BOS 24.5, LAK 30.4	BOS 28, LAK 26
Win chance	LAK 54%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK A. Panarin	3.1	3	1.19	0	36%	0
LAK A. Kempe	3.1	1	0.96	1	36%	0
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.1	3	1.09	2	34%	1
LAK A. Laferriere	3.0	2	0.66	1	25%	1
LAK T. Moore	2.8	3	0.57	0	23%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.5	1	0.68	0	25%	0
LAK B. Clarke	2.0	0	0.50	1	10%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.9	1	0.71	1	27%	0
LAK S. Laughton	1.7	2	0.33	0	15%	0
BOS J. Peterka	1.7	2	0.52	1	20%	1
BOS C. McAvoy	1.7	2	0.62	1	11%	0
LAK E. Haula	1.7	1	0.39	0	16%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.6	2	0.43	1	18%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.4	3	0.53	1	19%	1
LAK J. Armia	1.3	2	0.30	0	14%	0
LAK C. Perry	1.3	0	0.33	0	16%	0
LAK E. Gustafsson	1.3	0	0.36	0	6%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.3	1	0.36	0	7%	0
BOS J. Hagens	1.3	2	0.35	0	11%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.1	1	0.38	0	10%	0
BOS F. Brunet	1.1	0	0.17	0	4%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	5	0.18	0	4%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.0	1	0.42	0	13%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.0	1	0.24	0	10%	0
BOS M. Poitras	1.0	0	0.31	1	10%	0
LAK A. Lee	1.0	1	0.17	0	7%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.9	2	0.32	2	13%	1
BOS M. Lohrei	0.9	3	0.30	0	6%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	0.8	2	0.22	0	10%	0
BOS W. Borgen	0.8	1	0.22	0	5%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.8	0	0.17	0	4%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.8	0	0.23	0	5%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.8	1	0.14	0	7%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.7	3	0.19	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.