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Game Recap
BOS0
MIN1
MIN beat BOS 1-0, with the chances close: 1.67 expected goals to 2.06. M. Boldy had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.4. F. Gustavsson stopped 28 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| MIN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 2nd 5:01MINF. Gaudreau0.11 xG
Team Stats
BOSMIN
28Shots on goal22
2.06Expected goals1.67
49Shot attempts46
215v5 shots on goal18
0/2Power play0/2
27Hits22
13Blocked shots7
9Penalty minutes9
17Giveaways20
5Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 2.06 xGMIN 1.67 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:18 | 3:45 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:15 | 2:44 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:34 | 2:44 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:55 | 2:44 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:43 | 1:14 |
| M. Poitras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:30 | 1:20 |
| G. Merkulov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:09 | 0:15 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:51 | 1:11 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:37 | 0:00 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Viel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:56 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:29 | 3:31 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 20:55 | 0:00 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:16 | 0:00 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:54 | 0:00 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:36 | 0:03 |
| I. Mitchell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:06 | 0:29 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 22 | 21 | 1 | .955 | 58:16 | Loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gaudreau | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:30 | 1:50 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:33 | 1:59 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:34 | 1:26 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:42 | 2:27 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:36 | 2:26 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:57 | 1:24 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:14 | 0:00 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:48 | 2:01 |
| B. Gaunce | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:42 | 0:00 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11:26 | 0:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10:25 | 0:00 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:26 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26:36 | 2:25 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:54 | 0:00 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:27 | 1:51 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:22 | 1:26 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:25 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 28 | 28 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 2.7, MIN 2.9 | BOS 0, MIN 1 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 1 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 27.2, MIN 28.8 | BOS 28, MIN 22 |
| Win chance | MIN 54% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 4.2 | 5 | 1.20 | 0 | 42% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.4 | 8 | 0.91 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.4 | 0 | 0.87 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 2.1 | 3 | 0.61 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.1 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.9 | 0 | 0.70 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.7 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 1.7 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.7 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN G. Nyquist | 1.6 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.5 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.5 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.5 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.4 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.3 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS G. Merkulov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN B. Gaunce | 1.2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.2 | 3 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.1 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS J. Brazeau | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 1.0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS M. Poitras | 1.0 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN J. Lauko | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS J. Viel | 0.8 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS I. Mitchell | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.6 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.