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Game Recap
BOS1
FinalSat, Oct 3, 2026Every game that night
MIN4

MIN beat BOS 4-1, with the chances close: 3.32 expected goals to 2.67. K. Kaprizov led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). Y. Trenin had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Wallstedt stopped 26 of 27.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
BOS1001
MIN0224
  1. 1st 1:53BOST. Jeannot0.11 xG
  2. 2nd 6:11MINK. KaprizovPP0.24 xG
  3. 2nd 12:28MINQ. HughesPP0.08 xG
  4. 3rd 3:24MINJ. Spurgeon0.01 xG
  5. 3rd 18:59MINK. KaprizovEN0.17 xG

Team Stats

BOSMIN
27Shots on goal30
2.67Expected goals3.32
50Shot attempts52
215v5 shots on goal22
0/3Power play2/3
16Hits14
13Blocked shots11
6Penalty minutes6
23Giveaways19
4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 2.67 xGMIN 3.32 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdBOS goal, 1:53MIN goal, 6:11MIN goal, 12:28MIN goal, 3:24MIN goal, 18:59

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS27 on goal, 1 scored
MIN30 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. KastelicC011101-1010:590:00
T. JeannotLW101110008:100:00
D. PastrnakRW0005210021:024:33
J. PeterkaRW0002000020:383:04
P. ZachaC0001000019:272:55
M. GeekieC0001300018:453:22
C. MittelstadtC000101-1217:182:37
E. LindholmC0002000016:562:22
F. MintenC000300-1014:282:02
J. HagensC000310-1013:432:44
M. KhusnutdinovC000100-1012:430:00
S. KuralyC0003010010:360:00
C. CliftonD0110010218:060:14
H. LindholmD0000210021:382:53
M. LohreiD000000-1021:003:06
W. BorgenD0000330019:210:03
J. AspirotD0001120016:360:00
N. ZadorovD0002320215:450:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
M. DiPietro29263.89757:53Loss
J. Swayman000–0:00

MIN Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
K. KaprizovLW202300+1018:492:57
J. Eriksson EkC011210+1017:472:57
M. McCarronC011420+1016:580:00
M. ShabanovRW0110110014:552:45
R. HartmanRW011002-1211:300:18
B. BrinkRW011111-1011:170:06
M. BoldyLW000421+1018:052:57
Y. TreninC000440-1015:030:00
N. FolignoLW000100+1013:530:00
B. ColemanLW0002100013:340:06
D. YurovRW0001110012:410:00
M. FolignoLW000110+1012:040:00
Q. HughesD112401+1022:233:03
J. SpurgeonD101102+2220:060:06
O. MaattaD0001000023:130:00
J. BrodinD0000010021:390:00
Z. BogosianD0000000015:540:00
D. HuntD000101-1214:090:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Wallstedt27261.96360:00Win
C. Pickard000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak15:03J. Peterka16:08E. Lindholm11:28
Line 2P. Zacha14:10M. Geekie13:57C. Mittelstadt14:00
Line 3J. Hagens10:18M. Khusnutdinov11:05F. Minten11:45
Line 4S. Kuraly10:15M. Kastelic10:05T. Jeannot8:04
Pair 1H. Lindholm15:50W. Borgen17:11
Pair 2J. Aspirot16:15M. Lohrei16:41
Pair 3C. Clifton17:01N. Zadorov14:54

MIN

Line 1N. Foligno12:54M. McCarron13:10M. Foligno11:13
Line 2J. Ek11:48M. Boldy12:01B. Coleman10:59
Line 3D. Yurov11:37M. Shabanov12:10K. Kaprizov14:35
Line 4R. Hartman11:12B. Brink11:11Y. Trenin13:17
Pair 1J. Spurgeon16:26Q. Hughes19:09
Pair 2J. Brodin17:11O. Maatta19:32
Pair 3Z. Bogosian12:16D. Hunt13:29

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 22 overs hit (41%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
BOS D. Pastrnak3.5+120-1355Over
MIN K. Kaprizov3.5+112-1253Under
MIN M. Boldy3.5+105-1254Over
MIN B. Coleman2.5+116-1102Under
MIN J. Ek2.5-125+1002Under
BOS J. Peterka2.5+136-1702Under
MIN Q. Hughes2.5+115-1354Over
MIN B. Brink1.5+122-1401Under
BOS C. Mittelstadt1.5+150-2051Under
MIN D. Yurov1.5+135-1851Under
BOS E. Lindholm1.5-125+1102Over
BOS F. Minten1.5+112-1203Over
BOS H. Lindholm1.5+148-1600Under
BOS J. Hagens1.5+115-1553Over
MIN J. Spurgeon1.5+135-1801Under
BOS M. Geekie1.5-165+1501Under
MIN M. McCarron1.5+100-1304Over
MIN M. Shabanov1.5-140+1100Under
BOS P. Zacha1.5-120+1051Under
MIN R. Hartman1.5-180+1350Under
MIN Y. Trenin1.5+145-1954Over
BOS M. Khusnutdinov0.5-195+1451Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreBOS 2.9, MIN 3.6BOS 1, MIN 4
Total goals6.55
Shots on goalBOS 26.7, MIN 31.8BOS 27, MIN 30
Win chanceMIN 61%MIN won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
MIN M. Boldy3.841.05036%0
MIN K. Kaprizov3.431.19243%2
MIN J. Ek3.320.77128%0
BOS D. Pastrnak3.251.05033%0
MIN R. Hartman2.600.61124%0
MIN B. Coleman2.620.52022%0
MIN Q. Hughes2.641.16216%1
BOS M. Geekie2.010.64026%0
BOS J. Peterka1.820.50021%0
BOS P. Zacha1.710.61019%0
BOS E. Lindholm1.620.52019%0
MIN M. McCarron1.540.27112%0
MIN B. Brink1.410.45116%0
BOS F. Minten1.430.34015%0
BOS H. Lindholm1.400.3507%0
BOS N. Zadorov1.320.2607%0
MIN M. Shabanov1.200.36112%0
MIN J. Spurgeon1.210.3419%1
MIN J. Brodin1.200.2906%0
BOS C. Mittelstadt1.210.44014%0
BOS J. Hagens1.230.28012%0
BOS S. Kuraly1.230.2209%0
MIN D. Yurov1.110.35014%0
MIN O. Maatta1.110.3706%0
MIN Y. Trenin1.140.24010%0
BOS M. Kastelic1.110.22110%0
MIN M. Foligno1.110.27013%0
MIN N. Foligno1.110.31012%0
BOS M. Lohrei1.000.3107%0
BOS W. Borgen0.900.2005%0
BOS T. Jeannot0.910.2019%1
BOS M. Khusnutdinov0.910.31012%0
BOS J. Aspirot0.910.2004%0
BOS C. Clifton0.800.1714%0
MIN Z. Bogosian0.700.1504%0
MIN D. Hunt0.710.1802%0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.