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Game Recap
BOS1
MTL4
MTL beat BOS 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.92 expected goals to 2.31. MTL outshot BOS 32 to 19. N. Suzuki led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Montembeault stopped 18 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| MTL | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
- 2nd 0:40MTLC. Dvorak0.27 xG
- 2nd 14:24MTLC. Caufield0.14 xG
- 3rd 3:00MTLB. Gallagher0.19 xG
- 3rd 13:19BOSE. Lindholm0.45 xG
- 3rd 18:03MTLN. SuzukiEN0.90 xG
Team Stats
BOSMTL
19Shots on goal32
2.31Expected goals3.92
55Shot attempts64
185v5 shots on goal30
0/2Power play0/1
29Hits34
15Blocked shots21
9Penalty minutes11
18Giveaways18
3Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 2.31 xGMTL 3.92 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:24 | 2:40 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:58 | 2:07 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:49 | 2:10 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 17:53 | 1:52 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:43 | 2:08 |
| F. Lysell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:07 | 1:20 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:35 | 1:50 |
| V. Lettieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:55 | 1:53 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauko | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:39 | 0:00 |
| P. Brown | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:28 | 0:00 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:27 | 0:00 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:52 | 0:07 |
| I. Mitchell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:01 | 2:13 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:27 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:09 | 1:40 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 59:00 | Loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:39 | 2:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:18 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:58 | 0:00 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:57 | 1:42 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:50 | 1:29 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:30 | 0:31 |
| P. Laine | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:17 | 1:49 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:38 | 0:00 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:25 | 0:00 |
| M. Pezzetta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 7:47 | 0:00 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 24:52 | 0:11 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 23:33 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 22:59 | 2:00 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 5 | 19:58 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 | 0:00 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10:41 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 19 | 18 | 1 | .947 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Dobes | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 3.0, MTL 3.1 | BOS 1, MTL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 25.8, MTL 27.9 | BOS 19, MTL 32 |
| Win chance | MTL 53% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.8 | 1 | 1.19 | 1 | 43% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.2 | 3 | 0.86 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| MTL P. Laine | 2.3 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.2 | 4 | 1.03 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.0 | 1 | 0.69 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.0 | 4 | 0.71 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.9 | 3 | 0.46 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.9 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.8 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| BOS V. Lettieri | 1.7 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.6 | 2 | 0.68 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BOS F. Lysell | 1.6 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.6 | 4 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.4 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.4 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 1.3 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.91 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.2 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS H. Jokiharju | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.1 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.0 | 2 | 0.38 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS J. Lauko | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS P. Brown | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.7 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS I. Mitchell | 0.7 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.6 | 3 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL M. Pezzetta | 0.6 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.5 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.