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Game Recap
BOS3
MTL2
BOS beat MTL 3-2, with the chances close: 3.77 expected goals to 4.25. D. Pastrnak led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). B. Gallagher had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. J. Swayman stopped 26 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| MTL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 8:38BOSM. Khusnutdinov0.13 xG
- 1st 12:12MTLJ. EvansSH0.16 xG
- 2nd 2:00BOSM. Lohrei0.01 xG
- 2nd 16:51BOSV. ArvidssonPP0.23 xG
- 2nd 18:44MTLC. Caufield0.20 xG
Team Stats
BOSMTL
23Shots on goal28
3.77Expected goals4.25
61Shot attempts71
105v5 shots on goal17
1/5Power play0/7
27Hits27
16Blocked shots22
30Penalty minutes26
14Giveaways10
5Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 3.77 xGMTL 4.25 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:15 | 6:39 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:49 | 6:16 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 16:13 | 1:16 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:55 | 2:55 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:05 | 6:26 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 12:49 | 0:22 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:06 | 5:21 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:00 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 13:40 | 0:21 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:29 | 1:47 |
| A. Steeves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:58 | 1:43 |
| J. Viel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5:54 | 0:00 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 21:05 | 0:24 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:41 | 2:08 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 27:19 | 4:28 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22:03 | 0:00 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 13:41 | 3:04 |
| J. Aspirot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:52 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 59:48 | Win |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:35 | 7:58 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:26 | 7:24 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 13:48 | 0:09 |
| J. Evans | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:05 | 0:11 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:52 | 7:52 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16:05 | 4:09 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:43 | 3:42 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:28 | 3:46 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:25 | 3:23 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:36 | 0:25 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:05 | 0:03 |
| J. Davidson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 7 | 12:03 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 26:06 | 7:20 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23:01 | 6:02 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:56 | 1:16 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 19:34 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10:04 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 23 | 20 | 3 | .870 | 58:16 | Loss |
| J. Dobes | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
BOS
Line 1D. Pastrnak10:26M. Khusnutdinov11:04M. Geekie9:24
Line 2T. Jeannot10:45M. Kastelic9:50F. Minten9:39
Line 3P. Zacha7:11A. Steeves8:03V. Arvidsson5:50
Line 4S. Kuraly6:41J. Viel5:42M. Eyssimont8:42
Pair 1H. Lindholm13:41A. Peeke16:49
Pair 2J. Aspirot10:03M. Lohrei12:28
Pair 3N. Zadorov12:19C. McAvoy4:53
MTL
Line 1N. Suzuki10:31C. Caufield9:59J. Slafkovský9:45
Line 2J. Anderson8:08J. Evans8:03Z. Bolduc9:42
Line 3K. Dach9:58I. Demidov7:11O. Kapanen5:37
Line 4J. Veleno8:22J. Davidson7:14B. Gallagher9:02
Pair 1L. Hutson14:32J. Struble9:47
Pair 2M. Matheson12:29N. Dobson11:29
Pair 3A. Carrier12:46A. Xhekaj8:55
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 3.0, MTL 3.1 | BOS 3, MTL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 25.4, MTL 26.9 | BOS 23, MTL 28 |
| Win chance | MTL 52% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.6 | 5 | 1.28 | 2 | 43% | 0 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.9 | 4 | 0.87 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| BOS V. Arvidsson | 2.5 | 3 | 0.64 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.1 | 2 | 0.99 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.1 | 5 | 0.80 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.0 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BOS M. Eyssimont | 1.8 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.7 | 5 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.7 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.6 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 1.6 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.5 | 2 | 0.66 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.4 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.4 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS S. Kuraly | 1.3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.3 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.1 | 3 | 0.80 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS T. Jeannot | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS A. Steeves | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.1 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL J. Veleno | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS J. Viel | 0.9 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 0.9 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 0.9 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS J. Aspirot | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.7 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.