Game Recap: BOS 2, MTL 3 (OT), March 17, 2026

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Game Recap

BOS2

Final/OTTue, Mar 17, 2026Every game that night

MTL3

MTL beat BOS 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.59 expected goals to 3.41. P. Zacha led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Evans had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Dobes stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
BOS	1	1	0	0	2
MTL	1	1	0	1	3

1st 2:22BOSP. ZachaPP0.08 xG
1st 10:31MTLN. Suzuki0.21 xG
2nd 5:41BOSP. Zacha0.08 xG
2nd 13:15MTLJ. Anderson0.08 xG
OT 4:38MTLC. Caufield0.21 xG

Team Stats

BOSMTL

28Shots on goal31

3.41Expected goals4.59

54Shot attempts76

195v5 shots on goal24

1/4Power play0/1

32Hits26

15Blocked shots12

2Penalty minutes8

19Giveaways11

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 3.41 xGMTL 4.59 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS27 on goal, 2 scored

MTL31 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Zacha	C	2	0	2	4	4	0	-1	0	16:22	3:42
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	1	1	2	1	1	-1	0	24:35	6:49
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	17:09	3:54
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	16:36	3:56
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	0	19:42	4:14
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	19:14	3:39
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	16:32	0:55
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	15:53	3:59
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:14	0:04
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	12:13	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	12:00	0:03
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	11:37	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	-1	0	26:44	3:44
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	21:03	4:13
H. Lindholm	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	19:48	0:23
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	17:07	0:00
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	3	3	3	-1	0	16:44	0:00
J. Aspirot	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	16:21	0:10

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	31	28	3	.903	64:38	OT loss
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	+2	0	24:18	2:00
C. Caufield	RW	1	1	2	4	0	1	+2	0	19:58	2:00
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	0	19:33	2:00
J. Anderson	RW	1	0	1	3	4	0	+1	0	13:21	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	1	1	2	6	1	+1	0	10:39	0:00
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	17:29	0:00
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	2	14:45	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:00	0:00
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:37	0:00
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	13:20	0:00
I. Demidov	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	12:39	1:42
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	9:14	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	2	2	1	1	0	+1	0	21:41	2:00
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	3	2	3	0	0	24:02	0:18
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	23:16	0:00
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	22:22	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	18:19	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	13:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	28	26	2	.929	64:22	Win
J. Fowler	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak15:19F. Minten13:55M. Khusnutdinov13:37

Line 2V. Arvidsson11:46C. Mittelstadt12:09P. Zacha11:15

Line 3E. Lindholm13:39M. Eyssimont12:13M. Geekie11:54

Line 4S. Kuraly10:59T. Jeannot11:52M. Kastelic10:10

Pair 1N. Zadorov16:33A. Peeke16:09

Pair 2C. McAvoy19:07J. Aspirot15:55

Pair 3H. Lindholm17:09M. Lohrei15:14

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki17:21J. Slafkovský16:00C. Caufield15:30

Line 2A. Texier13:06Z. Bolduc14:00J. Evans12:16

Line 3B. Gallagher10:23P. Danault11:05J. Anderson10:15

Line 4O. Kapanen9:56I. Demidov9:50A. Newhook9:14

Pair 1M. Matheson18:20N. Dobson19:01

Pair 2K. Guhle17:53A. Carrier16:01

Pair 3L. Hutson15:08J. Struble13:36

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 3.1, MTL 3.6	BOS 2, MTL 3
Total goals	6.6	5
Shots on goal	BOS 25.8, MTL 29.3	BOS 28, MTL 31
Win chance	MTL 58%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.8	2	1.36	1	43%	0
MTL C. Caufield	3.1	4	0.88	2	36%	1
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.3	2	0.59	1	22%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.3	3	0.80	1	26%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.3	3	1.04	2	29%	1
BOS M. Geekie	2.1	3	0.76	0	31%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.1	3	0.68	0	13%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.9	1	0.68	0	23%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.8	2	0.82	0	20%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.7	1	0.47	0	21%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.6	1	0.47	0	18%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.6	3	0.63	1	11%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.6	4	0.67	2	21%	2
MTL B. Gallagher	1.6	2	0.35	1	15%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.5	0	0.47	0	9%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.5	2	0.47	0	20%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.5	1	1.02	2	11%	0
BOS M. Eyssimont	1.5	2	0.22	0	10%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.5	1	0.48	0	19%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.4	0	0.44	0	18%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.4	1	0.35	0	7%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.3	3	0.33	1	17%	1
MTL P. Danault	1.2	0	0.41	0	14%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.2	1	0.51	1	17%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.2	2	0.34	0	8%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.1	0	0.37	0	8%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	5	0.41	0	14%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.1	1	0.24	0	6%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	1.1	1	0.39	0	15%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.1	0	0.21	0	9%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.0	0	0.21	0	10%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	0.9	0	0.24	0	10%	0
BOS A. Peeke	0.9	3	0.18	0	4%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.8	0	0.28	0	6%	0
BOS J. Aspirot	0.7	2	0.22	0	4%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.4	0	0.17	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.