NSH beat BOS 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.87 expected goals to 2.97. NSH outshot BOS 42 to 33. L. Evangelista led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Zadorov had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Saros stopped 33 of 33.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 2.97 xGNSH 3.87 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:48 | 3:31 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:00 | 3:33 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 16:18 | 4:06 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:08 | 2:57 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 15:39 | 3:06 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:22 | 2:35 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 | 0:58 |
| M. Poitras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:56 | 1:18 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:58 | 0:07 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:05 |
| M. Jones | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 11:14 | 0:00 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9:55 | 0:05 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:36 | 2:44 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 20:59 | 3:13 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 19:34 | 0:09 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 18:02 | 0:09 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 0 | 17:54 | 0:13 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:39 | 1:56 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 41 | 38 | 3 | .927 | 59:41 | Loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. O'Reilly | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:47 | 4:32 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:11 | 3:21 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:04 | 4:49 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:50 | 2:46 |
| T. Novak | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:00 | 3:32 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:45 | 5:34 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:34 | 5:01 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:15 | 2:47 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:37 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:00 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:46 | 0:00 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:59 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:24 | 5:04 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 4 | 19:37 | 3:17 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:09 | 0:20 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:57 | 0:00 |
| M. Del Gaizo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:51 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 33 | 33 | 0 | 1.000 | 59:56 | Win |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 2.8, NSH 3.1 | BOS 0, NSH 4 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 26.0, NSH 33.6 | BOS 33, NSH 42 |
| Win chance | NSH 54% | NSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 4.2 | 3 | 1.04 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 4.0 | 6 | 1.10 | 0 | 41% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 3.4 | 2 | 0.94 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 3.2 | 3 | 0.78 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 3.2 | 5 | 0.91 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 2.2 | 1 | 0.75 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.2 | 4 | 0.47 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.2 | 4 | 0.77 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.1 | 3 | 0.40 | 2 | 15% | 1 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 2.0 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.9 | 3 | 0.68 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.8 | 2 | 0.73 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.6 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.6 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS T. Frederic | 1.6 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NSH T. Novak | 1.4 | 4 | 0.48 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.4 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.3 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.3 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS M. Jones | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.3 | 4 | 0.32 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH M. Jankowski | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH J. Lauzon | 1.1 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH A. Carrier | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH M. Gaizo | 1.0 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.0 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS M. Poitras | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.