Game Recap: BOS 6, NYI 3, November 27, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

BOS6

FinalWed, Nov 27, 2024Every game that night

NYI3

BOS beat NYI 6-3, with the chances close: 1.86 expected goals to 2.17. B. Nelson led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). B. Carlo had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. J. Korpisalo stopped 21 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BOS	2	1	3	6
NYI	1	2	0	3

1st 0:57BOSB. Marchand0.02 xG
1st 6:31BOSB. Marchand0.15 xG
1st 12:50NYIM. Tsyplakov0.23 xG
2nd 8:52NYIB. Nelson0.09 xG
2nd 11:59BOSM. Geekie0.05 xG
2nd 19:52NYIB. Nelson0.21 xG
3rd 10:48BOSP. Zacha0.07 xG
3rd 13:23BOSP. Zacha0.17 xG
3rd 17:58BOSN. ZadorovEN0.56 xG

Team Stats

BOSNYI

21Shots on goal24

1.86Expected goals2.17

46Shot attempts56

205v5 shots on goal22

0/0Power play0/1

35Hits36

15Blocked shots11

2Penalty minutes0

15Giveaways16

3Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 1.86 xGNYI 2.17 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS20 on goal, 6 scored

NYI24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	3	3	1	1	0	+2	0	16:17	0:00
E. Lindholm	C	0	3	3	0	1	0	+2	0	15:56	0:00
P. Zacha	C	2	1	3	3	2	0	+2	0	15:04	0:00
B. Marchand	LW	2	0	2	2	3	0	+1	0	17:51	0:00
J. Brazeau	RW	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	16:38	0:00
M. Geekie	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	+2	0	16:36	0:00
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	16:24	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	15:13	0:00
T. Johnson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:49	0:00
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	0	12:35	0:00
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:24	0:00
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:42	0:00
N. Zadorov	D	1	1	2	2	3	2	+2	2	21:32	0:00
A. Peeke	D	0	1	1	1	2	3	+3	0	20:32	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	-1	0	18:49	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	21:49	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	4	5	3	+3	0	20:23	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	17:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Korpisalo	24	21	3	.875	60:00	Win
J. Swayman	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
B. Nelson	C	2	1	3	3	1	1	-1	18:35	2:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	1	1	2	2	6	0	0	16:16	0:00
B. Horvat	C	0	1	1	4	0	1	-2	22:00	2:00
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	1	6	0	-1	19:42	2:00
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	18:56	2:00
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:50	0:00
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-3	16:52	1:41
P. Engvall	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	12:31	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	7	0	-1	12:27	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:55	0:00
M. Martin	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	9:38	0:00
O. Wahlstrom	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	9:28	0:00
R. Pulock	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	19:36	0:00
I. George	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	19:28	0:00
N. Dobson	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	-3	23:28	2:00
A. Romanov	D	0	0	0	0	5	0	-2	20:20	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	18:09	0:00
D. Cholowski	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	16:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	20	15	5	.750	57:32	Loss
S. Varlamov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownCharlie McAvoy BOS Plays near home (born in Long Beach)1 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 2.6, NYI 2.8	BOS 6, NYI 3
Total goals	5.4	9
Shots on goal	BOS 27.1, NYI 30.2	BOS 21, NYI 24
Win chance	NYI 55%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.8	1	0.97	3	38%	0
NYI B. Horvat	2.9	4	0.74	1	31%	0
NYI B. Nelson	2.9	3	0.81	3	33%	2
NYI A. Lee	2.8	1	0.58	0	26%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.8	0	0.73	0	29%	0
BOS B. Marchand	2.4	2	0.71	2	25%	2
NYI N. Dobson	2.3	2	0.63	0	11%	0
BOS P. Zacha	2.0	3	0.59	3	20%	2
BOS E. Lindholm	1.8	0	0.56	3	22%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.8	0	0.53	1	10%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.7	2	0.52	0	19%	0
BOS J. Brazeau	1.6	1	0.37	1	18%	0
NYI P. Engvall	1.6	0	0.36	0	15%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.6	2	0.39	1	15%	1
NYI R. Pulock	1.5	1	0.34	1	7%	0
BOS C. Coyle	1.5	0	0.46	0	18%	0
BOS T. Frederic	1.5	0	0.36	0	16%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.4	2	0.47	2	14%	1
BOS N. Zadorov	1.4	2	0.29	2	9%	1
NYI A. Romanov	1.4	0	0.26	0	5%	0
BOS T. Johnson	1.3	0	0.34	0	15%	0
NYI O. Wahlstrom	1.2	4	0.22	0	10%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.2	2	0.42	0	19%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.1	0	0.35	0	7%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	0	0.26	0	11%	0
BOS C. Koepke	1.1	0	0.23	0	10%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	1.0	0	0.23	0	5%	0
BOS B. Carlo	1.0	4	0.17	0	5%	0
NYI I. George	0.9	0	0.18	1	5%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	0.9	3	0.21	0	10%	0
BOS A. Peeke	0.9	1	0.16	1	3%	0
NYI D. Cholowski	0.8	1	0.23	0	5%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.7	0	0.20	0	10%	0
BOS P. Wotherspoon	0.7	2	0.13	0	2%	0
NYI M. Martin	0.6	2	0.12	0	5%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.6	0	0.18	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.