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Game Recap
BOS3
NYI1
BOS beat NYI 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.33 expected goals to 4.58. NYI outshot BOS 44 to 14. A. Steeves led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Schaefer had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. J. Swayman stopped 43 of 44.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| NYI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 4:41NYIM. Barzal0.25 xG
- 1st 6:23BOSA. Steeves0.26 xG
- 2nd 0:43BOST. Jeannot0.21 xG
- 3rd 10:21BOSA. SteevesSH0.16 xG
Team Stats
BOSNYI
14Shots on goal44
1.33Expected goals4.58
42Shot attempts80
115v5 shots on goal27
0/1Power play0/4
24Hits17
12Blocked shots17
8Penalty minutes2
9Giveaways12
4Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 1.33 xGNYI 4.58 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:29 | 0:01 |
| A. Steeves | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 11:41 | 0:44 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:10 | 0:01 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 14:31 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:14 | 0:58 |
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:35 | 1:30 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:31 | 1:15 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:35 | 1:01 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:32 | 0:01 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:25 | 0:59 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:15 | 1:00 |
| M. Blümel | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 2:02 | 0:00 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 27:38 | 0:01 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:33 | 1:20 |
| J. Aspirot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 20:45 | 0:01 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:21 | 0:00 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 15:52 | 0:29 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:51 | 0:39 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 44 | 43 | 1 | .977 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Barzal | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:51 | 5:09 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:49 | 4:47 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:28 | 4:49 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:49 | 4:52 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:29 | 2:52 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:04 | 2:55 |
| M. Shabanov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:13 | 2:52 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:15 | 0:57 |
| C. Ritchie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:38 | 1:51 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:06 | 0:00 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:30 | 0:18 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 8:23 | 0:16 |
| M. Schaefer | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:18 | 5:05 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:00 | 2:55 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:59 | 0:22 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:13 | 0:00 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:13 | 0:00 |
| A. Boqvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 11:16 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 14 | 11 | 3 | .786 | 55:26 | Loss |
| D. Rittich | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
BOS
Line 1T. Jeannot11:53F. Minten11:34M. Kastelic12:11
Line 2D. Pastrnak15:36P. Zacha13:17M. Geekie14:31
Line 3S. Kuraly9:15A. Steeves9:16M. Eyssimont12:21
Line 4E. Lindholm11:11M. Khusnutdinov12:42
Pair 1N. Zadorov18:37J. Aspirot16:53
Pair 2H. Lindholm14:37H. Jokiharju15:23
NYI
Line 2K. Palmieri13:06B. Horvat14:29E. Heineman13:36
Line 3S. Holmstrom9:18M. Shabanov8:50C. Ritchie8:18
Line 4C. Cizikas8:40A. Duclair8:39M. Tsyplakov8:07
Pair 1R. Pulock16:45M. Schaefer16:40
Pair 2S. Mayfield14:39A. Boqvist11:16
Pair 3A. Pelech18:11T. DeAngelo13:31
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 2.9, NYI 3.1 | BOS 3, NYI 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 26.3, NYI 30.8 | BOS 14, NYI 44 |
| Win chance | NYI 55% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.6 | 1 | 1.19 | 0 | 41% | 0 |
| NYI B. Horvat | 3.1 | 2 | 0.86 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| NYI M. Barzal | 3.0 | 2 | 1.04 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| NYI M. Schaefer | 2.6 | 7 | 0.65 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.5 | 6 | 0.60 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.5 | 6 | 0.73 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.1 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| BOS M. Eyssimont | 2.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 1.7 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI E. Heineman | 1.7 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.7 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.6 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI J. Drouin | 1.6 | 4 | 0.82 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.6 | 0 | 0.62 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.5 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.5 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS M. Blümel | 1.4 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYI M. Shabanov | 1.4 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 2 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS S. Kuraly | 1.3 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.2 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI C. Ritchie | 1.2 | 4 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS T. Jeannot | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.2 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS A. Steeves | 1.2 | 4 | 0.26 | 2 | 11% | 2 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS H. Jokiharju | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.8 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI A. Boqvist | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS J. Aspirot | 0.7 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.