Game Recap: BOS 2, NYR 3, February 5, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

BOS2

FinalWed, Feb 5, 2025Every game that night

NYR3

NYR beat BOS 3-2, with the chances close: 1.95 expected goals to 2.02. M. Zibanejad led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). M. Rempe had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.7. I. Shesterkin stopped 15 of 17.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BOS	0	2	0	2
NYR	0	1	2	3

2nd 6:07NYRA. Panarin0.02 xG
2nd 15:03BOSD. Pastrnak0.14 xG
2nd 15:19BOSE. Lindholm0.01 xG
3rd 5:27NYRV. Trocheck0.27 xG
3rd 11:54NYRC. KreiderSH0.07 xG

Team Stats

BOSNYR

17Shots on goal22

2.02Expected goals1.95

52Shot attempts47

125v5 shots on goal19

0/3Power play0/3

17Hits32

9Blocked shots22

6Penalty minutes6

23Giveaways14

4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 2.02 xGNYR 1.95 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS17 on goal, 2 scored

NYR22 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	22:46	4:47
E. Lindholm	C	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	20:15	3:08
P. Zacha	C	0	1	1	2	3	0	+1	0	20:05	3:05
B. Marchand	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	2	19:44	3:37
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	20:24	2:42
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	17:43	1:20
M. Poitras	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:22	2:23
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:25	0:00
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:55	1:39
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	9:29	0:25
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	7:43	0:00
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:59	0:13
C. McAvoy	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	0	23:59	4:27
N. Zadorov	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	20:17	0:33
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	21:33	1:07
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	17:49	0:34
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	17:40	0:00
M. Callahan	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Korpisalo	22	19	3	.864	58:01	Loss
J. Swayman	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Zibanejad	C	0	2	2	1	1	2	+1	0	19:12	3:25
A. Panarin	LW	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	0	19:29	3:27
V. Trocheck	C	1	0	1	2	3	2	0	2	19:27	2:17
C. Kreider	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	18:17	3:43
J. Brodzinski	C	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	12:50	2:35
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:42	2:32
J. Miller	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	15:05	3:27
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	14:39	0:00
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	14:27	2:31
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	12:28	0:00
J. Vesey	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:38	0:00
M. Rempe	C	0	0	0	4	5	0	0	2	8:18	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	1	1	0	2	4	+1	0	25:00	2:25
A. Fox	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	22:57	3:35
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	2	19:56	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	2	3	3	0	0	17:24	0:03
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	15:41	0:00
Z. Jones	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	13:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	17	15	2	.882	60:00	Win
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJoonas Korpisalo NYR Faces BOS, his team until May 202619 saves on 22
BirthdayWill Cuylle NYR Turns 23 that day1 SOG
HometownCharlie McAvoy BOS Plays near home (born in Long Beach)1 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 2.5, NYR 3.1	BOS 2, NYR 3
Total goals	5.6	5
Shots on goal	BOS 27.1, NYR 31.0	BOS 17, NYR 22
Win chance	NYR 59%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	4.0	3	1.07	1	38%	1
NYR A. Panarin	3.2	4	1.22	1	34%	1
NYR V. Trocheck	2.6	2	0.78	1	26%	1
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.6	1	0.82	2	26%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.5	1	0.66	0	26%	0
BOS B. Marchand	2.5	2	0.71	1	25%	0
NYR C. Kreider	2.3	2	0.61	1	32%	1
NYR J. Miller	2.3	0	1.00	0	28%	0
BOS M. Geekie	2.0	3	0.53	0	21%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.9	2	0.65	1	20%	0
NYR R. Smith	1.9	1	0.58	0	20%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.8	1	0.54	1	20%	1
NYR W. Cuylle	1.8	1	0.39	0	18%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.7	1	0.45	1	8%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.7	1	0.75	1	10%	0
BOS C. Coyle	1.6	1	0.48	0	19%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.5	0	0.29	1	11%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.4	1	0.26	1	8%	0
NYR K. Miller	1.4	0	0.35	1	8%	0
BOS T. Frederic	1.4	1	0.32	0	15%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.2	1	0.24	0	5%	0
NYR Z. Jones	1.2	1	0.29	0	5%	0
NYR J. Vesey	1.2	1	0.26	0	12%	0
BOS M. Poitras	1.1	0	0.41	0	11%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.1	2	0.24	0	5%	0
BOS J. Brazeau	1.1	0	0.27	0	13%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.1	0	0.26	0	11%	0
BOS B. Carlo	1.1	0	0.17	0	4%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.1	0	0.21	0	3%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.1	0	0.19	0	8%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.0	1	0.37	0	6%	0
BOS C. Koepke	0.9	0	0.18	0	9%	0
NYR R. Lindgren	0.8	0	0.25	0	4%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.7	4	0.19	0	9%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.7	0	0.16	0	8%	0
BOS M. Callahan	0.6	1	0.10	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.