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Game Recap
BOS3
Final/OTMon, Jan 26, 2026Every game that night
NYR4

NYR beat BOS 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.95 expected goals to 2.96. D. Pastrnak led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). V. Trocheck had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. J. Quick stopped 21 of 24.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
BOS12003
NYR20114
  1. 1st 9:45NYRW. Cuylle0.02 xG
  2. 1st 12:09BOSE. Lindholm0.23 xG
  3. 1st 12:35NYRJ. Miller0.17 xG
  4. 2nd 3:18BOSE. Lindholm0.21 xG
  5. 2nd 8:52BOSM. Geekie0.03 xG
  6. 3rd 13:43NYRW. Borgen0.03 xG
  7. OT 3:53NYRM. Robertson0.17 xG

Team Stats

BOSNYR
24Shots on goal28
2.96Expected goals2.95
50Shot attempts57
225v5 shots on goal19
0/1Power play0/4
17Hits34
13Blocked shots12
8Penalty minutes2
16Giveaways12
3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 2.96 xGNYR 2.95 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdOTNYR goal, 9:45BOS goal, 12:09NYR goal, 12:35BOS goal, 3:18BOS goal, 8:52NYR goal, 13:43NYR goal, 3:53

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS24 on goal, 3 scored
NYR28 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
D. PastrnakRW0332110022:301:16
E. LindholmC202402+1020:431:16
M. GeekieC101421+2019:131:16
P. ZachaC000210-3017:361:16
M. KhusnutdinovC0002100016:190:00
F. MintenC0000100014:490:44
C. MittelstadtC000100-1013:450:44
V. ArvidssonLW000000-1012:450:44
M. KastelicC0000200011:310:00
A. SteevesC0001220011:250:37
S. KuralyC0000210011:070:00
T. JeannotLW000130029:490:00
C. McAvoyD0112000424:071:16
M. LohreiD011102+1014:490:44
H. LindholmD000203-1024:490:00
J. AspirotD0000200020:360:00
H. JokiharjuD0000010220:260:07
A. PeekeD000200-1017:440:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Korpisalo28244.85763:29OT loss
J. Swayman000–0:00

NYR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
V. TrocheckC011520+1025:065:36
A. PanarinLW011200+1024:155:51
M. ZibanejadC0113300021:275:27
J. MillerC1011010021:125:17
A. LafrenièreLW0110610019:052:31
G. PerreaultRW011300-1016:351:46
W. CuylleLW1013500015:121:42
N. LabaC0111610013:291:32
B. OthmannLW000061+109:570:00
T. RaddyshRW000000009:310:01
S. CarrickC000010008:520:04
M. RempeC000220028:430:01
M. RobertsonD1012210022:010:19
W. BorgenD101310-1018:230:00
U. VaakanainenD011101+2012:330:00
V. GavrikovD000002-1026:235:07
B. SchneiderD000104-1021:080:00
S. MorrowD000100+2015:511:41
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Quick24213.87563:49Win
S. Martin000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BOS

Line 1E. Lindholm17:07D. Pastrnak19:01M. Geekie16:42
Line 2V. Arvidsson12:01C. Mittelstadt13:01P. Zacha12:54
Line 3F. Minten11:38A. Steeves10:48M. Khusnutdinov11:49
Line 4S. Kuraly8:33T. Jeannot8:19M. Kastelic8:17
Pair 1C. McAvoy19:10J. Aspirot17:58
Pair 2H. Lindholm18:10H. Jokiharju18:08
Pair 3A. Peeke14:30M. Lohrei12:39

NYR

Line 1V. Trocheck16:43A. Panarin16:31A. Lafrenière15:57
Line 2G. Perreault14:49M. Zibanejad13:48J. Miller14:02
Line 3W. Cuylle11:45N. Laba11:26B. Othmann9:57
Line 4S. Carrick8:24M. Rempe8:18T. Raddysh8:41
Pair 1B. Schneider18:54V. Gavrikov18:45
Pair 2W. Borgen17:13M. Robertson19:45
Pair 3U. Vaakanainen12:05S. Morrow13:42

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamJoonas Korpisalo NYR Faces BOS, his team until May 202624 saves on 28
  • HometownCharlie McAvoy BOS Plays near home (born in Long Beach)1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreBOS 3.1, NYR 3.2BOS 3, NYR 4
Total goals6.37
Shots on goalBOS 26.6, NYR 27.9BOS 24, NYR 28
Win chanceNYR 51%NYR won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
BOS D. Pastrnak3.421.21338%0
NYR A. Panarin3.221.24136%0
NYR M. Zibanejad2.831.01131%0
BOS V. Arvidsson2.500.57021%0
NYR J. Miller2.411.09132%1
NYR V. Trocheck2.350.86127%0
BOS M. Geekie1.940.72127%1
BOS E. Lindholm1.840.69222%2
NYR A. Lafrenière1.800.53120%0
NYR W. Cuylle1.730.44119%1
NYR V. Gavrikov1.700.50011%0
BOS C. McAvoy1.720.61110%0
BOS H. Lindholm1.520.3506%0
BOS P. Zacha1.520.62019%0
NYR B. Schneider1.310.2806%0
BOS S. Kuraly1.300.28011%0
BOS F. Minten1.200.41017%0
BOS M. Kastelic1.200.26012%0
NYR G. Perreault1.230.33115%0
BOS C. Mittelstadt1.210.50016%0
NYR S. Morrow1.210.2903%0
NYR M. Robertson1.120.2516%1
NYR N. Laba1.110.29113%0
NYR B. Othmann1.100.1307%0
BOS A. Steeves1.110.31013%0
BOS H. Jokiharju1.100.2304%0
NYR W. Borgen1.030.2015%1
BOS M. Lohrei1.010.3216%0
BOS A. Peeke1.020.1704%0
BOS T. Jeannot1.010.27011%0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov0.920.36014%0
NYR T. Raddysh0.900.24010%0
NYR S. Carrick0.900.1708%0
BOS J. Aspirot0.700.1205%0
NYR M. Rempe0.720.1508%0
NYR U. Vaakanainen0.710.1912%0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.