Game Recap: BOS 1, SEA 5, December 12, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

BOS1

FinalThu, Dec 12, 2024Every game that night

SEA5

SEA beat BOS 5-1, with the chances close: 3.89 expected goals to 3.32. BOS outshot SEA 34 to 21. O. Bjorkstrand led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Oesterle had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. P. Grubauer stopped 33 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BOS	0	1	0	1
SEA	2	0	3	5

1st 0:24SEAO. BjorkstrandPP0.11 xG
1st 5:14SEAJ. Schwartz0.07 xG
2nd 10:28BOSB. Marchand0.40 xG
3rd 3:07SEAV. Dunn0.14 xG
3rd 9:16SEAO. Bjorkstrand0.11 xG
3rd 18:06SEAJ. McCannEN0.95 xG

Team Stats

BOSSEA

34Shots on goal21

3.32Expected goals3.89

85Shot attempts57

275v5 shots on goal16

0/1Power play1/3

23Hits26

19Blocked shots20

6Penalty minutes2

14Giveaways18

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 3.32 xGSEA 3.89 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS33 on goal, 1 scored

SEA21 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Marchand	LW	1	1	3	2	0	+1	0	18:48	1:09
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	0	6	0	1	-2	4	21:12	1:09
M. Geekie	C	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	19:20	0:41
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	17:27	0:55
P. Zacha	C	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	16:26	0:55
T. Frederic	C	0	0	1	0	2	-3	0	15:47	0:55
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:31	0:41
J. Beecher	C	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:41	0:10
T. Johnson	C	0	0	1	1	0	-4	2	12:47	0:00
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	11:20	0:10
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11:17	0:10
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	6:56	0:55
C. McAvoy	D	0	0	2	2	3	-2	0	23:07	0:50
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	1	7	4	0	0	21:59	0:10
J. Oesterle	D	0	0	4	1	2	-2	0	21:25	1:10
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	1	3	1	-2	0	17:46	0:00
A. Peeke	D	0	0	2	1	3	-2	0	17:11	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Korpisalo	20	16	4	.800	57:54	Loss
J. Swayman	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	2	0	2	2	4	0	+1	0	16:26	2:12
J. McCann	LW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	16:02	2:20
S. Wright	C	0	2	2	0	1	0	+2	0	15:17	1:48
C. Stephenson	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	18:50	2:16
M. Beniers	C	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	18:05	2:11
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	1	1	1	6	1	+2	0	17:21	1:55
J. Schwartz	LW	1	0	1	5	1	0	+1	2	17:17	1:58
B. Tanev	LW	0	1	1	2	3	3	+1	0	15:46	0:00
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+2	0	15:03	1:41
D. Sprong	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:17	0:00
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	10:20	0:00
M. Stephens	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:16	0:00
V. Dunn	D	1	0	1	4	0	1	+1	0	21:08	2:45
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	22:44	1:23
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	19:50	0:11
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	0	18:23	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	+1	0	17:23	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	16:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	34	33	1	.971	60:00	Win
J. Daccord	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMorgan Geekie BOS Faces SEA, his team until May 20232 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 2.9, SEA 2.8	BOS 1, SEA 5
Total goals	5.6	6
Shots on goal	BOS 26.6, SEA 28.2	BOS 34, SEA 21
Win chance	BOS 51%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.7	6	1.04	0	38%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.8	2	0.80	2	31%	1
SEA B. Montour	2.4	0	0.54	0	13%	0
BOS B. Marchand	2.2	3	0.75	1	26%	1
SEA O. Bjorkstrand	2.1	2	0.64	2	22%	2
SEA J. Schwartz	2.1	5	0.55	1	21%	1
SEA D. Sprong	2.1	0	0.49	0	20%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.9	2	0.64	0	21%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.9	0	0.56	1	20%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.8	4	0.64	1	12%	1
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.7	3	0.49	1	17%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.7	2	0.48	0	11%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.6	0	0.57	0	22%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.6	2	0.43	0	17%	0
BOS J. Brazeau	1.6	1	0.42	0	18%	0
BOS T. Frederic	1.6	1	0.42	0	18%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.5	1	0.41	1	17%	0
SEA B. Tanev	1.4	2	0.37	1	16%	0
BOS C. Coyle	1.4	0	0.48	0	19%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.4	0	0.23	0	6%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.3	1	0.29	0	10%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.3	1	0.72	1	20%	0
BOS T. Johnson	1.3	1	0.37	0	15%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.1	0	0.44	2	20%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.1	3	0.26	0	11%	0
SEA R. Evans	1.1	0	0.35	0	5%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.1	0	0.22	0	5%	0
SEA T. Kartye	1.1	0	0.23	0	11%	0
BOS J. Oesterle	1.0	4	0.20	0	4%	0
BOS B. Carlo	1.0	1	0.16	0	5%	0
BOS C. Koepke	1.0	2	0.26	0	11%	0
SEA W. Borgen	0.9	0	0.18	0	3%	0
BOS A. Peeke	0.8	2	0.15	0	3%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.7	2	0.22	0	11%	0
SEA M. Stephens	0.7	1	0.18	0	7%	0
BOS P. Wotherspoon	0.7	1	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.