Game Recap: BOS 4, SEA 7, January 6, 2026

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Game Recap

BOS4

FinalTue, Jan 6, 2026Every game that night

SEA7

SEA beat BOS 7-4, with the chances close: 3.53 expected goals to 3.85. BOS outshot SEA 36 to 27. K. Kakko led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). D. Pastrnak had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.5. J. Daccord stopped 32 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BOS	1	1	2	4
SEA	1	3	3	7

1st 8:50SEAJ. EberlePP0.38 xG
1st 12:47BOSD. Pastrnak0.04 xG
2nd 2:48SEAB. Catton0.03 xG
2nd 6:28BOSD. Pastrnak0.05 xG
2nd 18:23SEAB. Meyers0.23 xG
2nd 19:59SEAJ. McCannPP0.04 xG
3rd 10:21SEAK. Kakko0.17 xG
3rd 14:20SEAB. CattonPP0.11 xG
3rd 14:50BOSM. Lohrei0.14 xG
3rd 17:38BOSV. ArvidssonPP0.33 xG
3rd 19:48SEAK. KakkoEN0.76 xG

Team Stats

BOSSEA

36Shots on goal27

3.85Expected goals3.53

77Shot attempts53

305v5 shots on goal20

1/3Power play3/4

24Hits12

13Blocked shots17

6Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways20

3Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 3.85 xGSEA 3.53 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS35 on goal, 4 scored

SEA26 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	2	0	2	7	0	1	+1	2	21:09	2:48
V. Arvidsson	LW	1	1	2	4	0	1	-1	0	12:01	1:47
E. Lindholm	C	0	1	1	3	0	3	0	0	18:25	2:28
P. Zacha	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	16:29	2:27
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	14:46	1:48
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	13:46	0:00
A. Steeves	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	2	11:41	1:14
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	20:18	2:27
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	+1	0	15:17	1:44
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	13:51	0:02
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	1	7	1	-1	0	12:54	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	1	6	0	-1	0	12:34	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	0	23:51	2:25
N. Zadorov	D	0	1	1	2	3	2	0	2	23:14	0:04
M. Lohrei	D	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0	17:32	1:48
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:38	0:00
J. Aspirot	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	16:21	0:00
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:07	0:13

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	26	20	6	.769	58:03	Loss
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kakko	RW	2	1	3	3	0	0	+1	0	16:02	2:17
F. Gaudreau	C	0	2	2	2	0	1	+1	0	18:50	1:47
M. Beniers	C	0	2	2	3	0	1	+1	0	18:18	3:06
J. McCann	LW	1	1	2	3	0	1	+1	0	16:13	3:08
B. Catton	C	2	0	2	2	0	0	+1	2	13:56	1:43
C. Stephenson	C	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	19:59	3:06
J. Eberle	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	16:59	2:36
B. Meyers	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	0	11:56	0:02
T. Kartye	LW	0	1	1	1	2	1	-1	0	9:56	0:00
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	14:34	0:00
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	13:36	1:43
J. Melanson	RW	0	0	0	2	5	0	-1	0	9:58	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	2	2	2	0	1	0	0	18:05	3:17
R. Evans	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	15:13	1:36
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	22:17	0:00
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	0	21:37	0:00
C. Fleury	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	21:12	0:04
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	17:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	36	32	4	.889	60:00	Win
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BOS

Line 1E. Lindholm13:44M. Geekie15:54D. Pastrnak16:24

Line 2T. Jeannot11:21M. Kastelic11:13S. Kuraly10:59

Line 3M. Khusnutdinov11:26F. Minten12:51A. Steeves10:27

Line 4P. Zacha11:54C. Mittelstadt11:01V. Arvidsson9:51

Pair 1N. Zadorov20:39H. Jokiharju15:26

Pair 2C. McAvoy17:02J. Aspirot14:17

Pair 3A. Peeke14:22M. Lohrei15:44

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle13:36M. Beniers14:28K. Kakko13:16

Line 2F. Gaudreau13:57R. Winterton13:15C. Stephenson12:46

Line 3B. Catton12:13S. Wright11:53J. McCann11:36

Line 4J. Melanson9:58B. Meyers9:35T. Kartye9:56

Pair 1R. Lindgren18:03C. Fleury19:25

Pair 2A. Larsson16:59V. Dunn14:48

Pair 3J. Oleksiak15:14R. Evans13:37

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BOS 3.1, SEA 2.9	BOS 4, SEA 7
Total goals	6.1	11
Shots on goal	BOS 27.2, SEA 27.9	BOS 36, SEA 27
Win chance	BOS 53%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.5	7	1.18	2	40%	2
SEA J. McCann	2.3	3	0.68	2	26%	1
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.3	4	0.55	2	21%	1
BOS M. Geekie	2.1	2	0.77	0	30%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.0	2	0.60	1	22%	1
SEA V. Dunn	1.9	2	0.59	2	12%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.8	3	0.61	1	22%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.8	3	0.56	2	21%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.7	3	0.56	1	9%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.5	3	0.46	3	16%	2
SEA S. Wright	1.5	2	0.50	0	20%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.5	1	0.60	1	19%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.4	2	0.41	0	18%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.4	2	0.40	2	18%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.3	2	0.29	2	11%	2
SEA C. Stephenson	1.3	0	0.65	1	20%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	0	0.31	0	7%	0
SEA C. Fleury	1.3	2	0.15	0	4%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.3	2	0.25	0	11%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.3	2	0.31	1	7%	0
SEA B. Meyers	1.3	2	0.22	1	12%	1
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.3	2	0.51	1	18%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.2	1	0.25	0	11%	0
BOS A. Steeves	1.2	0	0.37	1	17%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.1	2	0.21	0	4%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.1	1	0.20	0	8%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	1.1	1	0.29	0	12%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.0	0	0.22	0	5%	0
SEA J. Melanson	0.9	2	0.33	0	10%	0
BOS H. Jokiharju	0.9	0	0.20	0	3%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.9	1	0.28	1	11%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.9	0	0.25	0	4%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	0.9	3	0.28	1	4%	1
SEA R. Evans	0.8	0	0.34	1	7%	0
BOS J. Aspirot	0.8	0	0.13	0	6%	0
SEA T. Kartye	0.8	1	0.19	1	9%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.