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Game Recap
BOS1
SJS3
SJS beat BOS 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.74 expected goals to 2.44. M. Celebrini led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). W. Smith had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. Y. Askarov stopped 34 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| SJS | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 15:53SJSS. Mukhamadullin0.03 xG
- 2nd 11:45SJSM. CelebriniPP0.07 xG
- 3rd 10:02BOSM. Geekie0.09 xG
- 3rd 18:53SJSC. GrafEN0.61 xG
Team Stats
BOSSJS
35Shots on goal31
2.44Expected goals3.74
68Shot attempts49
265v5 shots on goal19
0/3Power play1/6
30Hits23
9Blocked shots15
22Penalty minutes16
16Giveaways13
3Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 2.44 xGSJS 3.74 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:29 | 4:54 |
| M. Geekie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 | 4:06 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 21:11 | 4:13 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:01 | 1:39 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:41 | 4:12 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 15:19 | 0:09 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:07 | 0:05 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:52 | 0:01 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:06 | 1:31 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:38 | 0:00 |
| A. Steeves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:42 | 0:00 |
| R. Tufte | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:01 | 1:40 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:51 | 0:51 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 27:21 | 4:34 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 22:12 | 0:07 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:32 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:21 | 1:18 |
| J. Aspirot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 13:14 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 30 | 28 | 2 | .933 | 59:48 | Loss |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Celebrini | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:32 | 6:08 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:56 | 5:50 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:31 | 0:00 |
| C. Graf | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:14 | 2:11 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:09 | 5:51 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:58 | 5:51 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:36 | 0:00 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:25 | 3:57 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:17 | 2:36 |
| P. Kurashev | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:05 | 2:38 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:05 | 0:06 |
| R. Reaves | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:01 | 0:00 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:05 | 0:15 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:12 | 4:01 |
| S. Mukhamadullin | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 17:06 | 0:26 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:54 | 2:35 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 10 | 19:18 | 0:00 |
| S. Dickinson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Askarov | 35 | 34 | 1 | .971 | 59:50 | Win |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
BOS
Line 1D. Pastrnak16:12P. Zacha14:47M. Khusnutdinov13:53
Line 2T. Jeannot11:39F. Minten12:53M. Kastelic12:05
Line 3S. Kuraly7:01M. Eyssimont10:35R. Tufte6:21
Line 4M. Geekie11:42A. Steeves7:34E. Lindholm9:57
Pair 1H. Lindholm18:30H. Jokiharju17:16
Pair 3N. Zadorov16:47J. Aspirot10:49
SJS
Line 1W. Eklund12:48M. Celebrini12:48W. Smith11:22
Line 2B. Goodrow14:29Z. Ostapchuk11:59R. Reaves8:01
Line 3T. Dellandrea14:09C. Graf11:52A. Gaudette10:31
Line 4A. Wennberg10:08P. Kurashev10:00T. Toffoli7:18
Pair 1M. Ferraro16:33S. Mukhamadullin15:34
Pair 2D. Orlov14:03T. Liljegren15:31
Pair 3S. Dickinson13:46V. Desharnais14:53
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 3.5, SJS 2.6 | BOS 1, SJS 3 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 28.8, SJS 26.3 | BOS 35, SJS 31 |
| Win chance | BOS 63% | SJS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.8 | 6 | 1.40 | 1 | 46% | 0 |
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.1 | 5 | 1.04 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.4 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| BOS M. Eyssimont | 2.3 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.2 | 6 | 0.85 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 2.2 | 2 | 0.75 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 2.2 | 7 | 0.84 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.9 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.7 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.6 | 2 | 0.72 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.6 | 5 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS P. Kurashev | 1.5 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.5 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.5 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SJS D. Orlov | 1.5 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS S. Kuraly | 1.4 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS A. Gaudette | 1.3 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS A. Steeves | 1.3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS T. Jeannot | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.3 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.0 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS S. Dickinson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS R. Tufte | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS H. Jokiharju | 0.9 | 2 | 0.23 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.9 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS S. Mukhamadullin | 0.9 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.9 | 2 | 0.18 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS J. Aspirot | 0.8 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS Z. Ostapchuk | 0.6 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS R. Reaves | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS V. Desharnais | 0.6 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.