BOS beat STL 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.41 expected goals to 2.21. BOS outshot STL 30 to 22. D. Pastrnak led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Pastrnak had 10 shots on goal against our projection of 4.1. J. Swayman stopped 20 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| STL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 2nd 9:24STLB. SchennPP0.58 xG
- 2nd 12:12STLO. SundqvistPP0.22 xG
- 3rd 4:53BOSM. Geekie0.15 xG
- 3rd 9:15BOSC. McAvoy0.04 xG
- 3rd 18:13BOSD. Pastrnak0.08 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 4.41 xGSTL 2.21 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 24:29 | 6:08 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:32 | 5:54 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:10 | 5:43 |
| M. Geekie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:27 | 2:02 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 11:50 | 1:53 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:48 | 5:35 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:43 | 2:14 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:56 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:00 |
| T. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:02 | 0:01 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8:41 | 0:00 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 25:08 | 4:00 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:07 | 0:07 |
| B. Carlo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:55 | 0:11 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:53 | 2:03 |
| P. Wotherspoon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:19 | 0:10 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:17 | 3:03 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 22 | 20 | 2 | .909 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:37 | 3:32 |
| B. Schenn | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 19:31 | 3:35 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:39 | 3:31 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:54 | 1:15 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:56 | 1:13 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:57 | 1:10 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:19 | 3:32 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:00 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:17 | 0:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:00 | 0:00 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:45 | 0:00 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:30 | 1:08 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:23 | 3:17 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 23:00 | 0:00 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 20:39 | 0:00 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:49 | 0:00 |
| S. Perunovich | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:17 | 1:27 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:46 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 30 | 27 | 3 | .900 | 58:27 | Loss |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 3.0, STL 2.9 | BOS 3, STL 2 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 28.0, STL 28.6 | BOS 30, STL 22 |
| Win chance | BOS 52% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 4.1 | 10 | 1.13 | 2 | 42% | 1 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.9 | 4 | 0.79 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| BOS B. Marchand | 2.5 | 5 | 0.84 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 2.1 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| STL J. Faulk | 2.0 | 4 | 0.50 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.0 | 2 | 0.72 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 2.0 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.9 | 3 | 0.67 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.8 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.8 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.7 | 3 | 0.55 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| STL B. Saad | 1.7 | 0 | 0.47 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 1.7 | 3 | 0.34 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| BOS C. Coyle | 1.6 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS T. Johnson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BOS J. Brazeau | 1.5 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.5 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.5 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL A. Texier | 1.4 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 1.4 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.4 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS T. Frederic | 1.4 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.4 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS C. Koepke | 1.3 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS B. Carlo | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL P. Joseph | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS J. Beecher | 0.8 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.8 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| BOS P. Wotherspoon | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| STL S. Perunovich | 0.6 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 14 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.