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Game Recap
BOS5
STL2
BOS beat STL 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.54 expected goals to 2.37. D. Pastrnak led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). P. Zacha had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Swayman stopped 24 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| STL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 5:27STLR. ThomasPP0.10 xG
- 2nd 12:48BOSF. Minten0.17 xG
- 2nd 14:34BOSM. Kastelic0.13 xG
- 3rd 4:51STLR. Thomas0.30 xG
- 3rd 8:01BOSM. Kastelic0.33 xG
- 3rd 11:33BOSF. Minten0.12 xG
- 3rd 18:19BOSP. ZachaEN0.83 xG
Team Stats
BOSSTL
31Shots on goal26
4.54Expected goals2.37
71Shot attempts57
275v5 shots on goal19
0/2Power play1/2
26Hits30
21Blocked shots20
6Penalty minutes6
15Giveaways13
12Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 4.54 xGSTL 2.37 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:36 | 2:28 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:00 | 0:00 |
| F. Minten | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:51 | 0:41 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:00 |
| P. Zacha | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:55 | 2:33 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:31 | 1:04 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:29 | 2:39 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:54 | 2:26 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:00 | 0:00 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:24 | 1:35 |
| A. Steeves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:13 | 0:48 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:03 | 1:28 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 0 | 24:08 | 0:16 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:06 | 0:00 |
| V. Soderstrom | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:00 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 22:16 | 2:25 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:31 | 1:37 |
| J. Aspirot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:52 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 26 | 24 | 2 | .923 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Thomas | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:56 | 2:08 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:55 | 2:09 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 19:58 | 1:27 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:11 | 1:25 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:50 | 1:48 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:29 | 1:24 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:07 | 0:00 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 13:24 | 2:03 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:13 | 1:09 |
| A. Kaskimaki | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 10:35 | 0:00 |
| M. Luff | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 7:44 | 0:00 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7:31 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 24:17 | 1:47 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 23:05 | 0:01 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:32 | 0:00 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:29 | 1:46 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:55 | 0:00 |
| L. Mailloux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 9:49 | 0:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 30 | 26 | 4 | .867 | 58:00 | Loss |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
BOS
Line 1S. Kuraly13:05T. Jeannot13:48M. Kastelic12:46
Line 2M. Khusnutdinov13:06F. Minten13:53D. Pastrnak12:13
Line 3P. Zacha12:01C. Mittelstadt11:28V. Arvidsson11:03
Line 4E. Lindholm10:02A. Steeves11:14M. Geekie12:08
Pair 1N. Zadorov19:43J. Aspirot16:32
Pair 2H. Lindholm16:23A. Peeke16:47
Pair 3M. Lohrei15:09V. Soderstrom13:44
STL
Line 1P. Buchnevich13:55R. Thomas14:05J. Neighbours14:02
Line 2B. Schenn14:31D. Holloway16:19M. Joseph13:27
Line 3P. Suter13:22D. Dvorsky11:04A. Kaskimaki10:35
Line 4O. Sundqvist10:07M. Luff7:44
Pair 1C. Parayko19:03P. Broberg17:52
Pair 3C. Fowler16:00L. Mailloux9:45
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 2.8, STL 3.0 | BOS 5, STL 2 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 25.2, STL 28.0 | BOS 31, STL 26 |
| Win chance | STL 55% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.4 | 3 | 1.12 | 3 | 39% | 0 |
| BOS V. Arvidsson | 2.4 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.3 | 3 | 0.69 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.1 | 0 | 0.74 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.9 | 2 | 0.77 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| STL N. Bjugstad | 1.8 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.7 | 2 | 0.96 | 2 | 23% | 2 |
| STL P. Suter | 1.7 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.7 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.6 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.6 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.6 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.5 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.5 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BOS A. Steeves | 1.5 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.4 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.4 | 3 | 0.28 | 2 | 13% | 2 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.4 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.4 | 6 | 0.57 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| BOS S. Kuraly | 1.4 | 2 | 0.25 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.3 | 4 | 0.29 | 2 | 14% | 2 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.3 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.3 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| STL M. Luff | 1.2 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BOS T. Jeannot | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.2 | 3 | 0.22 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| STL L. Mailloux | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.9 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 0.9 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BOS J. Aspirot | 0.9 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS V. Soderstrom | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.8 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 26 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.