Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
BOS1
FinalThu, Oct 29, 2026Every game that night
STL4

STL beat BOS 4-1, with the chances close: 2.46 expected goals to 2.34. BOS outshot STL 32 to 18. R. Thomas led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. McAvoy had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. J. Hofer stopped 31 of 32.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
BOS1001
STL1214
  1. 1st 5:28BOSJ. Hagens0.05 xG
  2. 1st 15:43STLJ. SnuggerudPP0.13 xG
  3. 2nd 5:17STLP. Broberg0.14 xG
  4. 2nd 12:08STLR. Thomas0.11 xG
  5. 3rd 12:42STLJ. NeighboursPP0.16 xG

Team Stats

BOSSTL
32Shots on goal18
2.34Expected goals2.46
65Shot attempts38
295v5 shots on goal15
0/2Power play2/3
29Hits15
6Blocked shots15
6Penalty minutes2
12Giveaways13
3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 2.34 xGSTL 2.46 xGGoal

00.511.522.51st2nd3rdBOS goal, 5:28STL goal, 15:43STL goal, 5:17STL goal, 12:08STL goal, 12:42

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS30 on goal, 1 scored
STL18 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. MittelstadtC0110100015:581:27
J. HagensC101200+1015:421:33
D. PastrnakRW0003100221:282:32
P. ZachaC000110-1021:002:11
J. PeterkaRW0003100018:191:49
F. MintenC0000120015:501:49
E. LindholmC000110+1015:362:08
M. GeekieC000330-1215:202:11
M. KhusnutdinovC0001000012:160:00
T. JeannotLW0001300010:510:00
M. KastelicC000131-1010:110:00
M. PoitrasC000220-208:520:00
C. McAvoyD000531+1223:562:05
H. LindholmD000300+1023:210:00
N. ZadorovD000161-1019:050:05
M. LohreiD000100-1018:281:50
W. BorgenD000210-1017:250:20
C. CliftonD000221-1014:120:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Swayman18144.77860:00Loss
M. DiPietro000–0:00

STL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
R. ThomasC123201+1218:421:08
D. HollowayLW011030+1015:250:57
C. McMichaelLW011110+1015:180:55
J. SnuggerudRW101200+1015:181:09
J. NeighboursLW101151+1013:451:09
P. BuchnevichLW000000-1015:550:54
M. McTavishC000501-1015:201:08
P. SuterC0001000014:390:09
A. ToropchenkoRW0000300014:300:07
J. BerggrenRW000001-1013:170:00
A. KaskimakiC0000010013:100:05
D. DvorskyRW000001+1011:490:00
P. BrobergD1231020025:551:07
J. BarronD011101+1015:240:00
C. FowlerD0001010021:351:03
B. CarloD0002330020:240:07
A. JiricekD000001+1018:030:52
C. ParaykoD0001010017:310:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Hofer32311.96960:00Win
J. Binnington000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak18:56J. Peterka16:21P. Zacha18:09
Line 2C. Mittelstadt14:31J. Hagens14:09E. Lindholm12:54
Line 3T. Jeannot9:59M. Kastelic9:50M. Poitras8:52
Line 4M. Geekie13:09M. Khusnutdinov11:28F. Minten13:07
Pair 1H. Lindholm22:45C. McAvoy21:17
Pair 2N. Zadorov17:33W. Borgen16:02
Pair 3C. Clifton13:41M. Lohrei16:27

STL

Line 1R. Thomas16:48J. Snuggerud14:09J. Neighbours12:36
Line 2A. Toropchenko13:00P. Suter12:35A. Kaskimaki11:51
Line 3P. Buchnevich13:25M. McTavish14:12J. Berggren13:17
Line 4C. McMichael13:17D. Holloway14:28D. Dvorsky11:49
Pair 1B. Carlo18:54P. Broberg22:38
Pair 2C. Fowler18:43C. Parayko14:53
Pair 3J. Barron15:24A. Jiricek17:11

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 19 overs hit (32%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
BOS D. Pastrnak3.5+105-1323Under
STL D. Holloway2.5+112-1350Under
STL J. Snuggerud2.5+110-1282Under
STL M. McTavish2.5+140-1655Over
BOS C. McAvoy1.5-110-1055Over
STL C. McMichael1.5-115+1051Under
STL C. Parayko1.5+110-1351Under
STL D. Dvorsky1.5+110–0Under
BOS E. Lindholm1.5-120-1051Under
BOS F. Minten1.5-125-1050Under
BOS J. Hagens1.5-120-1052Over
STL J. Neighbours1.5-110-1201Under
BOS J. Peterka1.5-165+1343Over
BOS M. Geekie1.5-152+1203Over
BOS M. Khusnutdinov1.5-165–1Under
STL P. Broberg1.5-114+1051Under
STL P. Buchnevich1.5-115+1100Under
BOS P. Zacha1.5-120-1051Under
STL R. Thomas1.5-115-1052Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamBrandon Carlo STL Faces BOS, his team until Mar 20252 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreBOS 2.9, STL 3.1BOS 1, STL 4
Total goals5.95
Shots on goalBOS 25.3, STL 28.4BOS 32, STL 18
Win chanceSTL 53%STL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
BOS D. Pastrnak3.131.10036%0
STL J. Snuggerud2.620.71125%1
STL M. McTavish2.550.57021%0
STL D. Holloway2.200.65122%0
BOS J. Peterka1.930.60025%0
STL P. Buchnevich1.900.64024%0
STL R. Thomas1.720.95326%1
BOS C. McAvoy1.750.64011%0
BOS M. Geekie1.730.64026%0
STL J. Neighbours1.710.55123%1
BOS P. Zacha1.710.66023%0
BOS F. Minten1.600.44019%0
BOS E. Lindholm1.610.57021%0
BOS J. Hagens1.620.41114%1
STL C. McMichael1.510.47117%0
STL P. Broberg1.510.46310%1
STL C. Parayko1.510.3109%0
STL J. Berggren1.400.41017%0
STL A. Jiricek1.400.1905%0
STL D. Dvorsky1.400.25013%0
STL A. Kaskimaki1.300.1808%0
BOS H. Lindholm1.330.3206%0
BOS N. Zadorov1.210.2506%0
STL P. Suter1.210.32014%0
STL C. Fowler1.110.4709%0
STL B. Carlo1.120.1604%0
BOS C. Mittelstadt1.100.45115%0
BOS M. Kastelic1.110.23010%0
STL A. Toropchenko1.100.1908%0
BOS M. Lohrei1.010.2906%0
STL J. Barron1.010.2316%0
BOS W. Borgen0.920.2205%0
BOS M. Poitras0.920.2809%0
BOS C. Clifton0.920.1904%0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov0.810.32013%0
BOS T. Jeannot0.810.1908%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.