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Game Recap
BOS6
WPG3
BOS beat WPG 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.64 expected goals to 2.68. D. Pastrnak led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). D. Pastrnak had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. J. Korpisalo stopped 26 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| WPG | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 5:59WPGM. Barron0.06 xG
- 1st 8:24BOSD. PastrnakPP0.07 xG
- 1st 10:28BOSC. MittelstadtPP0.18 xG
- 1st 11:08BOSS. Kuraly0.07 xG
- 1st 13:37WPGA. Iafallo0.13 xG
- 2nd 14:36BOSH. Lindholm0.05 xG
- 2nd 17:46WPGG. VilardiPP0.32 xG
- 3rd 14:43BOSE. Lindholm0.21 xG
- 3rd 18:04BOSD. PastrnakEN0.75 xG
Team Stats
BOSWPG
24Shots on goal29
3.64Expected goals2.68
51Shot attempts57
195v5 shots on goal21
2/2Power play1/4
21Hits24
18Blocked shots16
13Penalty minutes9
15Giveaways9
3Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BOS 3.64 xGWPG 2.68 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Pastrnak | RW | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 21:21 | 2:21 |
| M. Geekie | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 16:24 | 1:52 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 14:19 | 1:48 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:59 | 0:00 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:25 | 0:00 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 14:28 | 0:00 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:11 | 0:48 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:30 | 0:52 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:38 | 1:50 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:16 | 0:50 |
| A. Steeves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:00 |
| C. McAvoy | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 2 | 24:16 | 1:43 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 23:23 | 0:57 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 23:02 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 16:28 | 0:19 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 26:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Aspirot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Korpisalo | 29 | 26 | 3 | .897 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Swayman | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:01 | 3:06 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:41 | 3:15 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:01 | 0:00 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:16 | 2:57 |
| M. Barron | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:44 | 0:07 |
| C. Koepke | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:03 | 0:00 |
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:58 | 3:04 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:54 | 2:56 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:00 | 2:58 |
| J. Toews | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:58 | 2:59 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:07 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:45 | 2:44 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 26:03 | 3:36 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:45 | 0:16 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:48 | 0:23 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 23:39 | 2:22 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 14:59 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 5 | 10:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Comrie | 23 | 18 | 5 | .783 | 58:34 | Loss |
| D. DiVincentiis | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
BOS
Line 1S. Kuraly14:11T. Jeannot13:15M. Kastelic12:39
Line 2M. Khusnutdinov12:26F. Minten12:14D. Pastrnak17:36
Line 3P. Zacha12:51C. Mittelstadt12:23V. Arvidsson6:38
Line 4M. Geekie12:56E. Lindholm10:49A. Steeves10:51
Pair 1N. Zadorov19:34C. McAvoy20:39
Pair 2H. Lindholm18:23A. Peeke21:44
WPG
Line 1K. Connor15:58M. Scheifele15:38A. Iafallo14:02
Line 2J. Toews11:49G. Nyquist11:52M. Barron11:46
Line 3G. Vilardi13:00C. Perfetti10:03V. Namestnikov12:02
Line 4A. Lowry12:07C. Koepke10:59N. Niederreiter10:01
Pair 1D. Samberg17:18N. Pionk18:18
Pair 2J. Morrissey21:16D. DeMelo17:37
Pair 3L. Schenn10:00L. Stanley14:54
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BOS 2.6, WPG 3.1 | BOS 6, WPG 3 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | BOS 25.2, WPG 29.4 | BOS 24, WPG 29 |
| Win chance | WPG 59% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.6 | 2 | 1.20 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| BOS D. Pastrnak | 3.2 | 7 | 1.02 | 4 | 35% | 2 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.4 | 1 | 1.15 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.3 | 1 | 0.88 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| BOS V. Arvidsson | 2.3 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.1 | 3 | 0.83 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.0 | 1 | 0.68 | 3 | 27% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.8 | 2 | 0.52 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.8 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.7 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.7 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| BOS C. McAvoy | 1.7 | 4 | 0.53 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 1.6 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.5 | 1 | 0.50 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.5 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG J. Toews | 1.4 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.4 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.4 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.4 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS S. Kuraly | 1.4 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.4 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS A. Steeves | 1.4 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.4 | 3 | 0.25 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.3 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.2 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| WPG C. Koepke | 1.2 | 5 | 0.23 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS T. Jeannot | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG G. Nyquist | 1.2 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG L. Schenn | 0.9 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BOS J. Aspirot | 0.9 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.8 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.