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Game Recap
BOS4
Final/OTFri, Oct 2, 2026Every game that night
WPG3

BOS beat WPG 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.94 expected goals to 3.78. K. Connor led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). K. Connor had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. J. Swayman stopped 30 of 33.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
BOS20114
WPG12003
  1. 1st 4:52WPGD. DeMelo0.01 xG
  2. 1st 9:23BOSH. Lindholm0.03 xG
  3. 1st 15:20BOSJ. Hagens0.39 xG
  4. 2nd 1:50WPGK. ConnorPP0.20 xG
  5. 2nd 19:52WPGM. Ferraro0.01 xG
  6. 3rd 18:22BOSE. Lindholm0.08 xG
  7. OT 3:21BOSJ. Peterka0.09 xG

Team Stats

BOSWPG
30Shots on goal33
2.94Expected goals3.78
73Shot attempts69
255v5 shots on goal24
0/2Power play1/3
26Hits17
13Blocked shots20
13Penalty minutes11
24Giveaways16
8Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BOS 2.94 xGWPG 3.78 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdOTWPG goal, 4:52BOS goal, 9:23BOS goal, 15:20WPG goal, 1:50WPG goal, 19:52BOS goal, 18:22BOS goal, 3:21

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BOS29 on goal, 4 scored
WPG32 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BOS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
D. PastrnakRW0224010022:043:40
J. PeterkaRW101501+1020:053:39
M. GeekieC011020+2018:533:37
E. LindholmC1015100215:531:06
J. HagensC101120+1014:140:23
M. KastelicC011131059:170:00
P. ZachaC000303+2019:332:43
F. MintenC000110+1016:500:21
M. KhusnutdinovC0000000015:550:08
C. MittelstadtC000200+1014:010:15
S. KuralyC0001600211:020:00
T. JeannotLW000050-1010:150:00
N. ZadorovD0220220020:540:00
M. LohreiD011000+1021:532:00
H. LindholmD101202+1021:422:00
W. BorgenD011010+1019:320:00
C. CliftonD000220-1018:350:00
J. AspirotD0003130416:050:08
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Swayman33303.90962:25Win
M. DiPietro000–0:00

WPG Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
K. ConnorLW1129120020:563:27
A. LowryC0222320016:070:07
G. VilardiC011100-2019:253:31
C. PerfettiC011431-1017:063:27
M. BarronC011212+1215:530:03
M. ScheifeleC000000-1022:293:35
V. BjörckC0002000015:420:37
N. NiederreiterRW0000200012:170:38
A. IafalloLW0000100012:120:05
B. LambertC0000100011:470:00
V. NamestnikovC000101-1011:450:42
I. RosenRW000102-1010:500:40
D. DeMeloD1011010022:530:00
M. FerraroD1013130017:580:00
J. MorrisseyD000402-2025:223:27
N. PionkD000211-1024:370:53
D. SambergD0001030022:460:08
T. BauerD000030095:580:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Skinner30264.86763:21OT loss
C. Stevenson000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BOS

Line 1F. Minten14:06J. Hagens13:51M. Khusnutdinov13:02
Line 2P. Zacha13:19C. Mittelstadt13:46M. Geekie13:34
Line 3D. Pastrnak15:12E. Lindholm13:40J. Peterka14:13
Line 4S. Kuraly9:51T. Jeannot9:32M. Kastelic8:10
Pair 1H. Lindholm16:48W. Borgen16:55
Pair 2M. Lohrei18:25J. Aspirot15:57
Pair 3C. Clifton16:16N. Zadorov17:23

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele17:14K. Connor14:45C. Perfetti13:39
Line 2A. Lowry12:43M. Barron13:46B. Lambert11:47
Line 3V. Björck12:33G. Vilardi14:18I. Rosen10:01
Line 4N. Niederreiter11:39V. Namestnikov9:51A. Iafallo9:52
Pair 1D. Samberg19:28N. Pionk19:52
Pair 2D. DeMelo20:22J. Morrissey19:40
Pair 3M. Ferraro16:32T. Bauer5:58

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 14 overs hit (64%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
BOS D. Pastrnak3.5+115-1254Over
WPG K. Connor3.5+130-1609Over
WPG J. Morrissey2.5+130-1704Over
BOS J. Peterka2.5+150-1955Over
WPG M. Scheifele2.5+154-1800Under
WPG C. Perfetti1.5-168+1404Over
BOS E. Lindholm1.5-110-1155Over
BOS F. Minten1.5+106-1381Under
WPG G. Vilardi1.5-130+1101Under
BOS H. Lindholm1.5+110-1252Over
BOS J. Hagens1.5+112-1401Under
BOS M. Geekie1.5-160+1450Under
WPG N. Pionk1.5-120-1102Over
BOS P. Zacha1.5-114-1053Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreBOS 2.9, WPG 3.1BOS 4, WPG 3
Total goals6.07
Shots on goalBOS 25.4, WPG 28.7BOS 30, WPG 33
Win chanceWPG 53%BOS won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
WPG K. Connor3.390.99234%1
BOS D. Pastrnak3.041.09233%0
WPG M. Scheifele2.201.03032%0
WPG C. Perfetti2.140.51119%0
WPG J. Morrissey1.940.69015%0
BOS M. Geekie1.900.68126%0
WPG G. Vilardi1.810.72127%0
WPG N. Pionk1.820.3808%0
WPG A. Iafallo1.700.41017%0
BOS J. Peterka1.650.49120%1
BOS P. Zacha1.630.64020%0
BOS E. Lindholm1.650.57120%1
WPG M. Barron1.520.30113%0
WPG N. Niederreiter1.500.33016%0
WPG D. Samberg1.410.2504%0
BOS F. Minten1.310.36015%0
BOS H. Lindholm1.320.3617%1
BOS N. Zadorov1.300.2627%0
WPG B. Lambert1.200.29012%0
WPG A. Lowry1.220.35214%0
WPG M. Ferraro1.230.2716%1
BOS S. Kuraly1.210.2509%0
BOS C. Mittelstadt1.220.49015%0
BOS J. Hagens1.110.25110%1
WPG V. Namestnikov1.110.28011%0
WPG I. Rosen1.110.23012%0
BOS M. Kastelic1.110.24111%0
WPG D. DeMelo1.010.2414%1
BOS M. Lohrei0.900.3117%0
BOS T. Jeannot0.900.2309%0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov0.900.33012%0
BOS W. Borgen0.900.2015%0
BOS J. Aspirot0.830.2204%0
BOS C. Clifton0.820.1804%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.