Game Recap: BUF 1, BOS 3, December 21, 2024

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Game Recap

BUF1

FinalSat, Dec 21, 2024Every game that night

BOS3

BOS beat BUF 3-1, with the chances close: 2.22 expected goals to 1.71. D. Pastrnak led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. Korpisalo stopped 19 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	0	1	0	1
BOS	1	0	2	3

1st 8:15BOSC. Coyle0.07 xG
2nd 18:23BUFJ. PeterkaPP0.09 xG
3rd 18:15BOSM. GeekiePP0.14 xG
3rd 19:08BOSB. MarchandEN0.53 xG

Team Stats

BUFBOS

20Shots on goal19

1.71Expected goals2.22

54Shot attempts53

135v5 shots on goal12

1/3Power play1/3

22Hits28

20Blocked shots15

6Penalty minutes6

25Giveaways20

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 1.71 xGBOS 2.22 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF19 on goal, 1 scored

BOS19 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Zucker	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	18:09	4:33
J. Peterka	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	-1	0	17:39	4:29
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	19:10	4:31
T. Thompson	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	17:27	4:23
D. Cozens	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	14:34	0:53
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	14:22	0:44
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:06	0:00
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	13:47	0:43
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	1	4	3	0	2	13:45	0:00
S. Lafferty	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	13:32	0:00
J.Kulich	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	12:24	0:37
N. Aube-Kubel	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	11:31	0:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	2	24:15	1:03
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	22:58	4:13
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	22:31	0:06
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	17:35	0:00
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:56	0:00
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Reimer	18	16	2	.889	59:00	Loss
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	2	2	3	0	0	+1	0	19:51	4:58
B. Marchand	LW	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	0	18:43	4:42
C. Coyle	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	2	16:48	1:20
M. Geekie	C	1	0	1	2	4	0	0	0	16:35	2:01
P. Zacha	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	19:45	3:59
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	2	17:15	4:39
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	13:02	0:00
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	12:32	0:00
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:26	1:18
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	12:03	0:00
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	11:34	0:00
O. Wahlstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	9:48	0:50
C. McAvoy	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	24:40	4:02
N. Zadorov	D	0	1	1	0	3	0	+2	0	17:51	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	16:12	2:02
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	20:43	0:00
J. Oesterle	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	18:29	0:00
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	16:28	0:09

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Korpisalo	20	19	1	.950	60:00	Win
J. Swayman	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJJ Peterka BOS Faces BUF, his team until Apr 20251 G, 4 SOG
BirthdayCharlie McAvoy BOS Turns 27 that day1 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 2.6, BOS 3.4	BUF 1, BOS 3
Total goals	6.0	4
Shots on goal	BUF 26.6, BOS 30.0	BUF 20, BOS 19
Win chance	BOS 64%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	4.1	3	1.33	2	46%	0
BUF T. Thompson	2.8	2	0.76	0	32%	0
BOS B. Marchand	2.5	1	0.94	1	31%	1
BUF A. Tuch	2.1	2	0.67	0	23%	0
BUF D. Cozens	2.1	1	0.50	0	19%	0
BUF J. Peterka	2.1	4	0.53	1	21%	1
BOS P. Zacha	2.0	1	0.79	0	25%	0
BUF J. Zucker	1.9	1	0.47	1	19%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.9	2	0.58	1	22%	1
BUF J.Kulich	1.8	2	0.24	0	13%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.8	0	0.60	1	12%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.7	2	0.65	0	24%	0
BOS J. Brazeau	1.6	1	0.50	0	21%	0
BOS T. Frederic	1.6	0	0.49	0	21%	0
BUF O. Power	1.5	1	0.43	0	7%	0
BOS C. Coyle	1.5	3	0.59	1	22%	1
BOS N. Zadorov	1.4	0	0.36	1	12%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.4	1	0.32	0	13%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.3	2	0.38	0	14%	0
BOS O. Wahlstrom	1.3	0	0.27	0	13%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.3	1	0.44	0	11%	0
BOS J. Oesterle	1.1	1	0.24	0	4%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.1	0	0.33	0	13%	0
BUF H. Jokiharju	1.0	0	0.18	0	4%	0
BOS C. Koepke	1.0	1	0.29	0	12%	0
BOS B. Carlo	1.0	1	0.20	0	6%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.0	0	0.16	0	3%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.0	1	0.42	1	7%	0
BOS A. Peeke	0.9	1	0.20	0	4%	0
BUF P. Krebs	0.9	0	0.27	0	9%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.8	1	0.18	0	7%	0
BUF N. Aube-Kubel	0.8	2	0.18	0	8%	0
BUF C. Clifton	0.8	0	0.18	0	3%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.8	0	0.26	0	12%	0
BUF S. Lafferty	0.6	1	0.15	0	8%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.4	0	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.