Game Recap: BUF 3, BOS 4 (OT), October 30, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

BUF3

Final/OTThu, Oct 30, 2025Every game that night

BOS4

BOS beat BUF 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.78 expected goals to 4.12. BUF outshot BOS 40 to 22. A. Tuch led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Zucker had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. J. Korpisalo stopped 37 of 40.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
BUF	0	1	2	0	3
BOS	2	1	0	1	4

1st 13:07BOSM. GeekiePP0.14 xG
1st 15:07BOSD. Pastrnak0.11 xG
2nd 16:01BUFR. DahlinPP0.06 xG
2nd 19:39BOSM. Kastelic0.71 xG
3rd 7:00BUFJ. Doan0.38 xG
3rd 14:25BUFA. Tuch0.15 xG
OT 2:07BOSM. Khusnutdinov0.27 xG

Team Stats

BUFBOS

40Shots on goal22

4.12Expected goals2.78

69Shot attempts59

295v5 shots on goal16

1/5Power play1/4

25Hits12

19Blocked shots7

13Penalty minutes13

20Giveaways18

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 4.12 xGBOS 2.78 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF40 on goal, 3 scored

BOS22 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Tuch	RW	1	1	2	4	1	0	+1	0	19:19	3:24
T. Thompson	C	0	1	1	7	1	0	-1	0	19:51	6:19
J. Doan	RW	1	0	1	5	0	1	+1	0	16:38	6:03
Z. Benson	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	16:18	5:48
J.Kulich	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:05	2:58
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	6	2	0	-1	0	15:28	4:53
J. Greenway	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	2	15:22	0:02
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	14:44	0:55
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	14:36	3:29
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	5	11:33	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	1	6	2	0	0	11:31	0:02
J. Dunne	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	9:01	0:02
R. Dahlin	D	1	1	2	4	1	3	0	2	25:49	5:53
O. Power	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	18:02	3:22
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	23:49	0:02
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	2	2	4	0	0	19:50	3:11
C. Timmins	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:56	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	2	14:50	0:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	22	18	4	.818	61:33	OT loss
U. Luukkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	1	1	2	4	1	1	+1	2	20:17	5:34
M. Geekie	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	-1	0	18:32	5:20
P. Zacha	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	4	17:22	5:36
T. Jeannot	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	15:21	0:00
M. Khusnutdinov	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	2	15:20	0:51
F. Minten	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	15:15	0:00
S. Kuraly	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	14:29	0:17
M. Kastelic	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	12:37	0:00
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:44	3:29
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:15	1:57
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	5	12:27	2:02
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	9:37	2:40
C. McAvoy	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	26:31	4:56
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	22:54	0:14
H. Lindholm	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	20:44	2:47
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:14	2:09
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	16:51	0:00
J. Aspirot	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Korpisalo	40	37	3	.925	62:07	Win
J. Swayman	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

BUF

Line 1J.Kulich14:37T. Thompson12:49Z. Benson10:06

Line 2A. Tuch10:58R. McLeod10:00J. Doan10:35

Line 3J. Zucker10:35J. Quinn10:29J. Greenway11:59

Line 4B. Malenstyn8:42J. Dunne8:59P. Krebs10:59

Pair 1M. Samuelsson18:10R. Dahlin18:05

Pair 2M. Kesselring12:48B. Byram15:28

Pair 3C. Timmins10:34O. Power12:22

BOS

Line 1D. Pastrnak14:34M. Khusnutdinov13:50E. Lindholm6:53

Line 2V. Arvidsson11:40C. Mittelstadt10:48P. Zacha11:29

Line 3T. Jeannot11:09M. Geekie12:56F. Minten10:51

Line 4S. Kuraly8:44M. Kastelic7:34M. Eyssimont10:21

Pair 1N. Zadorov16:27C. McAvoy15:36

Pair 2H. Jokiharju14:47J. Aspirot13:48

Pair 3H. Lindholm13:22A. Peeke13:26

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCasey Mittelstadt BOS Faces BUF, his team until Mar 20241 SOG
BirthdayTage Thompson BUF Turns 28 that day1 A, 7 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.2, BOS 3.3	BUF 3, BOS 4
Total goals	6.6	7
Shots on goal	BUF 28.3, BOS 28.1	BUF 40, BOS 22
Win chance	BOS 52%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.6	4	1.35	2	43%	1
BUF T. Thompson	3.4	7	0.96	1	38%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	4	0.75	2	14%	1
BUF J.Kulich	2.2	1	0.50	0	22%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.2	4	0.78	2	28%	1
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.2	2	0.56	0	21%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.2	5	0.53	1	19%	1
BUF Z. Benson	2.1	1	0.61	1	17%	0
BOS M. Geekie	2.0	2	0.83	1	31%	1
BOS E. Lindholm	2.0	0	0.69	0	25%	0
BOS M. Eyssimont	2.0	1	0.32	0	13%	0
BUF J. Zucker	1.9	6	0.57	0	21%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.8	0	0.66	0	13%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.7	0	0.53	0	18%	0
BUF M. Kesselring	1.6	1	0.30	0	6%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.5	1	0.70	1	20%	0
BUF O. Power	1.5	2	0.42	1	6%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.5	1	0.31	1	14%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.4	0	0.61	0	20%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.3	1	0.28	1	13%	1
BOS N. Zadorov	1.3	1	0.37	0	11%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.3	3	0.37	0	7%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.2	0	0.24	0	4%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.2	1	0.26	1	14%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.2	1	0.55	0	18%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	1.1	1	0.30	1	14%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	1.1	1	0.18	0	7%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.1	2	0.33	0	5%	0
BUF J. Greenway	1.1	3	0.26	0	10%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.1	2	0.43	0	9%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.0	1	0.32	0	10%	0
BOS H. Jokiharju	1.0	1	0.27	0	5%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.9	0	0.25	0	4%	0
BUF J. Dunne	0.9	0	0.16	0	10%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.7	2	0.23	1	9%	1

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.