CAR beat BUF 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.82 expected goals to 1.46. CAR outshot BUF 37 to 15. M. Rantanen led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Tuch had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. P. Kochetkov stopped 13 of 15.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| CAR | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 6:09CARJ. Staal0.06 xG
- 1st 7:57CARS. Aho0.21 xG
- 1st 9:41CARM. RantanenPP0.07 xG
- 1st 19:04BUFA. TuchPP0.17 xG
- 2nd 15:52CART. Hall0.24 xG
- 3rd 1:15BUFJ. Peterka0.13 xG
- 3rd 17:49CARS. JarvisEN0.92 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 1.46 xGCAR 4.82 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Peterka | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:11 | 3:51 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:17 | 4:05 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:39 | 0:00 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:35 | 3:40 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:47 | 0:00 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:29 | 3:35 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:56 | 0:00 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13:54 | 1:31 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:20 | 1:26 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:23 | 1:15 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:12 | 0:00 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:47 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 25:38 | 3:49 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 22:52 | 1:13 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:33 | 1:05 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:21 | 0:00 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:21 | 0:00 |
| D. Gilbert | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 12:14 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 7 | 5 | 2 | .714 | 7:57 | |
| J. Reimer | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 50:57 | Loss |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Rantanen | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:37 | 1:20 |
| S. Aho | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:57 | 1:20 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:19 | 1:20 |
| J. Staal | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 16:30 | 0:02 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:36 | 1:20 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:57 | 1:13 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:56 | 0:02 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 11:53 | 0:00 |
| T. Hall | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:35 | 1:15 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:30 | 0:02 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:50 | 1:15 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:43 | 1:15 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:10 | 1:20 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 24:23 | 0:04 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:45 | 1:15 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 20:22 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:54 | 0:00 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:05 | 0:02 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 15 | 13 | 2 | .867 | 59:52 | Win |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 2.7, CAR 3.3 | BUF 2, CAR 5 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 24.8, CAR 31.7 | BUF 15, CAR 37 |
| Win chance | CAR 60% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR M. Rantanen | 2.9 | 3 | 1.18 | 2 | 39% | 1 |
| BUF T. Thompson | 2.8 | 1 | 0.79 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.7 | 3 | 1.06 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.6 | 2 | 0.83 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.6 | 3 | 0.89 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.4 | 4 | 0.51 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.3 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.2 | 5 | 0.70 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.0 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 2.0 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.0 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.0 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.9 | 3 | 0.57 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.8 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.7 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.6 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.6 | 0 | 0.55 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.6 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.6 | 3 | 0.45 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.5 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.5 | 4 | 0.45 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.5 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.5 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.4 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.3 | 0 | 0.47 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR T. Jost | 1.0 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.0 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF D. Gilbert | 0.4 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.