Game Recap: BUF 4, CHI 2, October 19, 2024

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Game Recap

BUF4

FinalSat, Oct 19, 2024Every game that night

CHI2

BUF beat CHI 4-2, with the chances close: 2.68 expected goals to 2.13. CHI outshot BUF 37 to 22. C. Smith led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Smith had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. U. Luukkonen stopped 35 of 37.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
BUF	2	1	1	4
CHI	0	2	0	2

1st 8:39BUFT. Thompson0.03 xG
1st 11:31BUFB. Malenstyn0.13 xG
2nd 6:28CHIC. Smith0.02 xG
2nd 12:48CHIC. Smith0.17 xG
2nd 18:37BUFJ. Peterka0.14 xG
3rd 19:34BUFR. McLeodEN0.84 xG

Team Stats

BUFCHI

22Shots on goal37

2.68Expected goals2.13

53Shot attempts60

155v5 shots on goal33

0/4Power play0/1

24Hits21

14Blocked shots19

6Penalty minutes12

10Giveaways10

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

BUF 2.68 xGCHI 2.13 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

BUF22 on goal, 4 scored

CHI37 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Peterka	RW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	2	20:43	4:17
T. Thompson	C	1	1	2	2	2	1	+2	0	19:18	4:17
A. Tuch	RW	0	1	1	3	2	1	+3	0	18:57	3:19
D. Cozens	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	17:27	4:40
R. McLeod	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	14:15	0:08
B. Malenstyn	LW	1	0	1	2	3	1	0	2	11:16	0:00
P. Krebs	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	2	10:51	0:00
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:36	4:19
J.Kulich	C	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	15:19	3:35
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:16	3:12
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	13:17	2:37
S. Lafferty	C	0	0	0	2	4	2	0	0	12:10	0:00
O. Power	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	20:10	3:09
C. Clifton	D	0	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	15:37	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	23:51	4:53
B. Byram	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	+1	0	20:27	0:53
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:42	0:41
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	15:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	37	35	2	.946	60:00	Win
D. Levi	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Smith	C	2	0	2	5	4	0	0	0	9:12	0:25
L. Reichel	LW	0	2	2	4	1	0	0	0	8:21	0:00
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	21:17	1:32
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	3	3	3	0	0	20:45	1:32
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	20:11	1:35
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:09	0:00
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	2	15:48	0:27
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	2	15:38	1:33
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	14:38	0:29
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	14:08	0:00
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	11:56	0:20
A. Athanasiou	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	8:51	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	1	1	5	1	1	-1	2	26:25	1:31
C. Murphy	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	18:25	0:08
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	2	1	5	0	0	23:10	0:28
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	-1	0	19:29	0:00
T. Brodie	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	4	16:15	0:00
N. Allan	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	21	18	3	.857	58:15	Loss
P. Mrazek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBowen Byram CHI First game against BUF since he left (his team until May 2026)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	BUF 3.5, CHI 2.7	BUF 4, CHI 2
Total goals	6.2	6
Shots on goal	BUF 31.6, CHI 26.9	BUF 22, CHI 37
Win chance	BUF 61%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.5	2	1.00	2	40%	1
CHI C. Bedard	2.9	2	0.95	0	26%	0
BUF J. Peterka	2.8	1	0.68	2	28%	1
BUF D. Cozens	2.7	1	0.69	1	25%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.7	3	0.95	1	31%	0
CHI S. Jones	2.4	5	0.55	1	13%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.3	1	0.57	0	23%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.3	0	0.69	0	14%	0
CHI T. Hall	2.2	3	0.64	0	23%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.1	2	0.67	0	26%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	2.0	3	0.79	0	26%	0
BUF J.Kulich	1.9	5	0.38	0	18%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.9	3	0.53	0	20%	0
BUF J. Quinn	1.9	1	0.60	0	21%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.6	0	0.39	0	18%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.6	3	0.39	0	16%	0
CHI A. Athanasiou	1.4	0	0.36	0	15%	0
CHI P. Kurashev	1.4	1	0.53	0	17%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.4	1	0.40	1	17%	1
BUF Z. Benson	1.4	0	0.41	0	15%	0
BUF O. Power	1.4	0	0.43	1	7%	0
CHI C. Smith	1.4	5	0.29	2	14%	2
CHI J. Dickinson	1.3	0	0.37	0	17%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.1	4	0.29	2	11%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.1	1	0.45	0	10%	0
BUF H. Jokiharju	1.1	0	0.27	0	4%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.0	2	0.17	1	7%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	0.9	0	0.17	0	3%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	0.9	2	0.24	0	5%	0
BUF C. Clifton	0.9	1	0.22	1	4%	0
BUF P. Krebs	0.9	1	0.27	1	9%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.8	2	0.18	1	7%	1
BUF S. Lafferty	0.8	2	0.22	0	11%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	0.7	0	0.26	0	3%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.6	1	0.28	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 14 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.