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Game Recap
BUF5
COL6
COL beat BUF 6-5 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.34 expected goals to 2.20. COL outshot BUF 29 to 21. J. Zucker scored three for BUF. M. Blackwood stopped 2 of 3.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| COL | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
- 1st 13:17BUFJ. ZuckerPP0.10 xG
- 1st 17:10BUFB. Byram0.14 xG
- 2nd 11:08BUFJ. ZuckerPP0.12 xG
- 2nd 14:58COLC. Makar0.08 xG
- 3rd 1:05COLR. Colton0.30 xG
- 3rd 1:27BUFZ. Benson0.03 xG
- 3rd 4:17COLM. RantanenPP0.14 xG
- 3rd 16:09BUFJ. Zucker0.46 xG
- 3rd 17:34COLC. Makar0.05 xG
- 3rd 19:52COLJ. Drouin0.19 xG
- OT 0:48COLD. Toews0.16 xG
Team Stats
BUFCOL
21Shots on goal29
2.20Expected goals3.34
35Shot attempts59
155v5 shots on goal19
2/3Power play1/3
27Hits31
9Blocked shots9
8Penalty minutes6
7Giveaways5
4Takeaways9
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
BUF 2.20 xGCOL 3.34 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Zucker | LW | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:14 | 2:49 |
| T. Thompson | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:43 | 2:46 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 18:52 | 0:46 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:22 | 2:47 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:53 | 2:50 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 9:34 | 0:45 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:42 | 0:00 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 2 | 19:24 | 0:42 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:36 | 0:43 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:00 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:17 | 0:00 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:11 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 23:17 | 2:45 |
| B. Byram | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:15 | 0:00 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 24:27 | 0:00 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:06 | 0:47 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:59 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 29 | 23 | 6 | .793 | 60:48 | OT loss |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 26:16 | 3:35 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 25:34 | 3:35 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 22:46 | 3:10 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:29 | 1:59 |
| R. Colton | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:24 | 0:25 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 22:01 | 2:01 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:13 | 0:00 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:39 | 0:00 |
| O. Olausson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:57 | 0:00 |
| J. Innala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:06 | 0:04 |
| J. Parssinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:01 | 0:25 |
| D. Toews | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 27:14 | 0:38 |
| C. Makar | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 28:17 | 3:35 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:32 | 0:25 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 17:59 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:42 | 0:00 |
| K. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:41 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wedgewood | 18 | 14 | 4 | .778 | 41:27 | |
| M. Blackwood | 3 | 2 | 1 | .667 | 16:12 | Win |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BUF 3.0, COL 3.7 | BUF 5, COL 6 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | BUF 26.7, COL 31.5 | BUF 21, COL 29 |
| Win chance | COL 62% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 3.8 | 3 | 1.55 | 3 | 40% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.8 | 5 | 1.17 | 2 | 25% | 2 |
| BUF T. Thompson | 2.7 | 4 | 0.85 | 3 | 36% | 0 |
| COL M. Rantanen | 2.6 | 3 | 1.27 | 2 | 39% | 1 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.2 | 0 | 0.86 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.2 | 1 | 0.66 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 2.1 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.1 | 4 | 0.59 | 4 | 23% | 3 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.0 | 0 | 0.73 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.0 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 1.9 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 1.9 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.8 | 4 | 0.63 | 3 | 12% | 1 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.7 | 0 | 0.51 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| COL J. Drouin | 1.7 | 2 | 0.86 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.3 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.3 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| COL C. Mittelstadt | 1.3 | 3 | 0.68 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.2 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.0 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.9 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| COL J. Parssinen | 0.8 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL K. Middleton | 0.8 | 1 | 0.08 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.4 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.